SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.
Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.
General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.
The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.
...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.
Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.
General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.
The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.
...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.
Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.
General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.
The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.
...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.
Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.
General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.
The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.
...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/15/2026
Read more
MD 0241 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI...AND PARTS OF UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...Southeast MN...central/northern WI...and parts of
Upper MI
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151040Z - 151515Z
SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with 1-2+ inch per hour rates will
continue spreading east-northeastward through the morning hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data and surface observations
indicate banded heavy snow extending across parts of southern MN
into central WI, with the most intense portion of the band currently
focused over parts of southeastern MN. Over the next several hours,
the deep frontogenetic circulation and related mesoscale ascent that
is supporting these heavy snowfall rates will continue spreading
east-northeastward from southeastern MN across central/northern WI
and eventually into Upper MI. Given the strong/focused lift and
cold/deeply saturated profiles, an expansive area of 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates can be expected. Beneath the core of the more
organized banding, rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Along the
southern fringes of the heavy snow, a substantial warm nose and
steep midlevel lapse rates/weak instability will continue to support
convective elements with mixed winter precipitation (freezing rain
and sleet) and widely scattered lightning flashes.
..Weinman.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43809266 43879340 44109384 44619405 45059370 45339295
46528927 46778794 46738705 46558630 46298601 45828591
45128644 44648734 44328864 44109003 43939132 43809266
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also
possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley into Mid South and Gulf Coast regions.
...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
An active severe weather event is expected to occur this afternoon
through tonight over a large part of the east-central CONUS. Water
vapor imagery confirms a powerful shortwave trough is amplifying
over the central Plains this morning, with a deep surface low
tracking from northern MO into Lower MI during this forecast period.
Very strong southerly low-level winds (50-75 knots at 850mb) in the
warm sector will transport 50s surface dewpoints rapidly northward,
resulting in widespread marginal to moderate CAPE values from Lower
MI to the Gulf coast. Current indications are that thunderstorms
will begin increasing in coverage and intensity around midday as a
strong cold front surges into the region. The initial storms over
AR/MO will track into an environment quite favorable for supercell
structures and tornadoes - but the intense linear forcing along the
front, and weak capping ahead of the front may short-circuit
discrete cell formation and mesocyclone development. Nevertheless,
a conditional risk of significant tornadoes will exist through at
least early evening.
There will be an increasing risk of widespread damaging winds and
occasional embedded tornadoes along the squall line/cold front as it
sweeps eastward into the OH and TN Valleys during the late afternoon
and evening. Extremely strong winds just above the surface will
allow deep-convective elements to produce severe winds. This threat
may persist much of the night, spreading as far east as eastern
KY/TN and much of GA by 16/12z.
Earlier model runs suggested the development of a more favorable
environment for supercells and tornadoes late tonight over parts of
AL/GA/FL. More recent model solutions have backed off from that
scenario, but will keep the ENH for now and re-evaluate with 12z
model cycle.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also
possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley into Mid South and Gulf Coast regions.
...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
An active severe weather event is expected to occur this afternoon
through tonight over a large part of the east-central CONUS. Water
vapor imagery confirms a powerful shortwave trough is amplifying
over the central Plains this morning, with a deep surface low
tracking from northern MO into Lower MI during this forecast period.
Very strong southerly low-level winds (50-75 knots at 850mb) in the
warm sector will transport 50s surface dewpoints rapidly northward,
resulting in widespread marginal to moderate CAPE values from Lower
MI to the Gulf coast. Current indications are that thunderstorms
will begin increasing in coverage and intensity around midday as a
strong cold front surges into the region. The initial storms over
AR/MO will track into an environment quite favorable for supercell
structures and tornadoes - but the intense linear forcing along the
front, and weak capping ahead of the front may short-circuit
discrete cell formation and mesocyclone development. Nevertheless,
a conditional risk of significant tornadoes will exist through at
least early evening.
There will be an increasing risk of widespread damaging winds and
occasional embedded tornadoes along the squall line/cold front as it
sweeps eastward into the OH and TN Valleys during the late afternoon
and evening. Extremely strong winds just above the surface will
allow deep-convective elements to produce severe winds. This threat
may persist much of the night, spreading as far east as eastern
KY/TN and much of GA by 16/12z.
Earlier model runs suggested the development of a more favorable
environment for supercells and tornadoes late tonight over parts of
AL/GA/FL. More recent model solutions have backed off from that
scenario, but will keep the ENH for now and re-evaluate with 12z
model cycle.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also
possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley into Mid South and Gulf Coast regions.
...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
An active severe weather event is expected to occur this afternoon
through tonight over a large part of the east-central CONUS. Water
vapor imagery confirms a powerful shortwave trough is amplifying
over the central Plains this morning, with a deep surface low
tracking from northern MO into Lower MI during this forecast period.
Very strong southerly low-level winds (50-75 knots at 850mb) in the
warm sector will transport 50s surface dewpoints rapidly northward,
resulting in widespread marginal to moderate CAPE values from Lower
MI to the Gulf coast. Current indications are that thunderstorms
will begin increasing in coverage and intensity around midday as a
strong cold front surges into the region. The initial storms over
AR/MO will track into an environment quite favorable for supercell
structures and tornadoes - but the intense linear forcing along the
front, and weak capping ahead of the front may short-circuit
discrete cell formation and mesocyclone development. Nevertheless,
a conditional risk of significant tornadoes will exist through at
least early evening.
There will be an increasing risk of widespread damaging winds and
occasional embedded tornadoes along the squall line/cold front as it
sweeps eastward into the OH and TN Valleys during the late afternoon
and evening. Extremely strong winds just above the surface will
allow deep-convective elements to produce severe winds. This threat
may persist much of the night, spreading as far east as eastern
KY/TN and much of GA by 16/12z.
Earlier model runs suggested the development of a more favorable
environment for supercells and tornadoes late tonight over parts of
AL/GA/FL. More recent model solutions have backed off from that
scenario, but will keep the ENH for now and re-evaluate with 12z
model cycle.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/15/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period,
as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough
over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of
the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of
America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken
into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern
trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant
instability to develop over land remains minimal.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period,
as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough
over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of
the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of
America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken
into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern
trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant
instability to develop over land remains minimal.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period,
as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough
over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of
the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of
America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken
into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern
trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant
instability to develop over land remains minimal.
Read more
MD 0240 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Areas affected...Far northwest Iowa...southern Minnesota...and
central Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 150455Z - 151000Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow banding will become more prominent in the
coming hours across extreme northwest Iowa, southern Minnesota, and
into central Wisconsin. Snowfall rates will likely exceed 2 inches
per hour within a narrow band across the region.
DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclone is apparent in surface
observations over the central Plains as a prominent upper-level jet
continues to push southeast. Recent VWP observations across the
eastern Plains have shown a pronounced increase in low-level winds
(upwards of 50-60 knots at 1 km AGL) within the developing warm
conveyor belt of the emerging cyclone. Concurrently, an increase in
precipitation is noted from southwest NE into southeast SD as the
strengthening low-level winds augment isentropic ascent as well as
low to mid-level frontogenesis.
In the coming hours, strong isentropic ascent and more focused lift
within the frontogenetical circulation between 850-700 mb will shift
east/northeast into southern MN and central WI as the surface
cyclone begins to migrate east/northeast. Ascent through a deep
layer, including through a somewhat shallow dendritic growth zone,
will support a broad swath of heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1
inch/hour.
A combination of focused ascent within a frontogenetical 700 mb
deformation zone and periodic convective augmentation (8.8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates were noted in an upstream 00z OAX sounding and
should be advecting into the southern flank of the deformation zone)
will likely result in a narrow corridor of snowfall rates between
2-3 inches/hour. Based on a consensus of recent guidance, this band
will most likely emerge across southern MN into central WI during
the 07-11 UTC time frame and will likely persist well into the
mid-morning hours.
..Moore.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 45338876 45318807 45178757 45028729 44778720 44338741
44068759 44078813 44149025 44169073 44049130 43519322
43169443 43079499 43159547 43409578 43699585 43969558
44469481 44809414 45149324 45339221 45389097 45338876
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
Northeast, with an upper ridge building over the southwestern US. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will be well offshore
over the Atlantic, though the tail end will clip far southern FL
early in the morning. A band of moisture and perhaps weak elevated
instability may persist well north of this front over southern FL,
with scattered weak convection possible.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
Northeast, with an upper ridge building over the southwestern US. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will be well offshore
over the Atlantic, though the tail end will clip far southern FL
early in the morning. A band of moisture and perhaps weak elevated
instability may persist well north of this front over southern FL,
with scattered weak convection possible.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
into Pennsylvania.
...Synopsis...
A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
after warm front passage by late afternoon.
Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
event during the afternoon.
...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.
...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.
Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
the evening.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
Read more
