SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
into Pennsylvania.
...Synopsis...
A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
after warm front passage by late afternoon.
Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
event during the afternoon.
...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.
...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.
Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
the evening.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
into Pennsylvania.
...Synopsis...
A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
after warm front passage by late afternoon.
Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
event during the afternoon.
...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.
...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.
Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
the evening.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
Read more
MD 0239 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Areas affected...South Dakota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 150135Z - 150630Z
SUMMARY...Bands of moderate to heavy snow are expected to develop
across central to northeast South Dakota in the coming hours.
Snowfall rates upwards of 1 inch/hour appear likely around/after 04
UTC.
DISCUSSION...Steady surface pressure falls are noted across the High
Plains as a cyclone continues to intensify over NE. Concurrently,
925-850 mb frontogenesis is beginning to increase along the NE/SD
border as the warm-frontal baroclinic zone of the developing cyclone
becomes more focused. Additionally, 00z RAOBS and recent VWP
observations along the MO River Valley/eastern Plains are sampling
strong warm advection from the surface to 2-3 km AGL. The
combination of strengthening frontogenesis within a more broad zone
of isentropic upglide should result in the emergence of at least
transient precipitation bands across SD in the coming hours.
Evidence of this banding is already noted in regional reflectivity
data to the east of Rapid City, SD and south of Aberdeen, SD.
With time, ascent within the left-exit region of the approaching
upper jet along with strengthening frontogenesis near 700 mb should
promote more persistent banding and increased ascent through the
dendritic growth zone. The result will be a higher probability for
consistent snowfall rates of 1 inch/hour (possibly higher in
localized areas) under the heavier bands. Based on latest guidance,
the onset of 1+ inch/hour rates may be as early as 02 UTC, but will
become more likely after 04 UTC across central to northeast SD.
..Moore.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44409659 43540161 43490227 43540268 43720291 44110296
44400284 44690225 45739814 45809760 45839696 45749662
45559644 45289634 44679626 44409659
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the middle into lower Mississippi
Valley late this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South, with a couple
of strong tornadic supercells also possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama into adjacent Georgia
late tonight.
...Discussion...
To the north of an expanding blocking mid-level high, centered off
the southern California coast, models indicate that large-scale
ridging will continue to build inland of the British Columbia/U.S.
Pacific coast, through the Canadian Rockies and U.S. Intermountain
West during this period. Downstream, a significant short wave
trough is forecast to continue amplifying southeastward across the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, preceded by building ridging
near and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.
Downstream of the digging short wave trough, a broad and deep
cyclone has already formed to the east of the Colorado Rockies, with
a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central
and southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to redevelop east-northeast into
the St. Joseph MO vicinity by daybreak, before continuing to deepen
while migrating northeastward toward lower Michigan today through
tonight. It appears that the northeastern periphery of the elevated
mixed-layer plume will spread across the lower Missouri Valley
before becoming suppressed southeastward.
In the wake of a preceding surface cyclone and associated cold
frontal passage, Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return
flow remain limited at this time. Although it should improve some,
aside from a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moisture
return across the southeastern Great Plains toward the lower Ohio
Valley, and broader corridors across the southern through middle
Atlantic Seaboard, as well as across the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity
by late tonight, warm sector dew points may not exceed lower/mid 50s
F. This may prove a limiting factor to the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, guidance continues to indicate the development of a
fairly extensive squall line along much of the length of a cold
front advancing across and east of the Mississippi Valley toward the
Appalachians late this afternoon through tonight.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Great Lakes...
Latest model output suggests that the stronger 850 mb jet core may
tend to shift ahead of the deepening surface cyclone, north of the
Ohio Valley into and through the lower Great Lakes region during the
afternoon. However, 40-50+ kt southerly flow may tend to trail back
ahead of the cold front to the southwest, at least as far as the Mid
South vicinity through late afternoon, as a narrow corridor of
better boundary-layer moisture return (characterized by lower 60s F
surface dew points) surges across northeastern Arkansas and
southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, western Kentucky and
Tennessee.
North-northeast and east of this vicinity, toward the Great Lakes
and upper Ohio Valley, the narrow corridor of better pre-frontal
moisture is likely to be more modest and supportive of rather modest
to weak CAPE. And there is concern that deeper boundary-layer
warming and mixing in the drier pre-convective environment may
actually be more efficient at mixing down stronger momentum to the
surface than the thunderstorm activity.
However, based on the latest forecast soundings, there does still
appear potential for widespread potentially damaging wind gusts at
least approaching or exceeding 50 kts, with an evolving pre-frontal
squall line as it spreads across and east of the middle to lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity. Gusts exceeding 65 kts, and potential
for tornadoes, may tend to be confined to meso-vortices evolving
along the leading edge of the convective outflow, particularly
within the more moist environment across the lower Ohio Valley into
Mid South.
There may also be a late afternoon into early evening window of
opportunity, across this same corridor, for either initially
discrete supercell development or discrete supercell development
just ahead of the evolving eastward advancing line. If this occurs,
there will probably be at least somewhat greater potential for
strong tornadoes. However, this remains unclear, particularly given
the limited breadth of the moist sector, and the tendency for it to
be rather quickly overtaken by the cold front.
...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Models continue to indicate a separate area of better low-level
moisture return across the eastern Gulf coast, which may include
surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s across the
western Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia
by late tonight. It appears that this will support a corridor of
boundary-layer destabilization characterized by CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg. Coincident with enlarging, clockwise curved low-level
hodographs beneath 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow overspreading
the region, and in the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear,
there appears potential for the evolution of longer-lived supercells
which could become capable of producing strong tornadoes.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the middle into lower Mississippi
Valley late this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South, with a couple
of strong tornadic supercells also possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama into adjacent Georgia
late tonight.
...Discussion...
To the north of an expanding blocking mid-level high, centered off
the southern California coast, models indicate that large-scale
ridging will continue to build inland of the British Columbia/U.S.
Pacific coast, through the Canadian Rockies and U.S. Intermountain
West during this period. Downstream, a significant short wave
trough is forecast to continue amplifying southeastward across the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, preceded by building ridging
near and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.
Downstream of the digging short wave trough, a broad and deep
cyclone has already formed to the east of the Colorado Rockies, with
a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central
and southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to redevelop east-northeast into
the St. Joseph MO vicinity by daybreak, before continuing to deepen
while migrating northeastward toward lower Michigan today through
tonight. It appears that the northeastern periphery of the elevated
mixed-layer plume will spread across the lower Missouri Valley
before becoming suppressed southeastward.
In the wake of a preceding surface cyclone and associated cold
frontal passage, Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return
flow remain limited at this time. Although it should improve some,
aside from a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moisture
return across the southeastern Great Plains toward the lower Ohio
Valley, and broader corridors across the southern through middle
Atlantic Seaboard, as well as across the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity
by late tonight, warm sector dew points may not exceed lower/mid 50s
F. This may prove a limiting factor to the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, guidance continues to indicate the development of a
fairly extensive squall line along much of the length of a cold
front advancing across and east of the Mississippi Valley toward the
Appalachians late this afternoon through tonight.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Great Lakes...
Latest model output suggests that the stronger 850 mb jet core may
tend to shift ahead of the deepening surface cyclone, north of the
Ohio Valley into and through the lower Great Lakes region during the
afternoon. However, 40-50+ kt southerly flow may tend to trail back
ahead of the cold front to the southwest, at least as far as the Mid
South vicinity through late afternoon, as a narrow corridor of
better boundary-layer moisture return (characterized by lower 60s F
surface dew points) surges across northeastern Arkansas and
southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, western Kentucky and
Tennessee.
North-northeast and east of this vicinity, toward the Great Lakes
and upper Ohio Valley, the narrow corridor of better pre-frontal
moisture is likely to be more modest and supportive of rather modest
to weak CAPE. And there is concern that deeper boundary-layer
warming and mixing in the drier pre-convective environment may
actually be more efficient at mixing down stronger momentum to the
surface than the thunderstorm activity.
However, based on the latest forecast soundings, there does still
appear potential for widespread potentially damaging wind gusts at
least approaching or exceeding 50 kts, with an evolving pre-frontal
squall line as it spreads across and east of the middle to lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity. Gusts exceeding 65 kts, and potential
for tornadoes, may tend to be confined to meso-vortices evolving
along the leading edge of the convective outflow, particularly
within the more moist environment across the lower Ohio Valley into
Mid South.
There may also be a late afternoon into early evening window of
opportunity, across this same corridor, for either initially
discrete supercell development or discrete supercell development
just ahead of the evolving eastward advancing line. If this occurs,
there will probably be at least somewhat greater potential for
strong tornadoes. However, this remains unclear, particularly given
the limited breadth of the moist sector, and the tendency for it to
be rather quickly overtaken by the cold front.
...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Models continue to indicate a separate area of better low-level
moisture return across the eastern Gulf coast, which may include
surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s across the
western Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia
by late tonight. It appears that this will support a corridor of
boundary-layer destabilization characterized by CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg. Coincident with enlarging, clockwise curved low-level
hodographs beneath 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow overspreading
the region, and in the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear,
there appears potential for the evolution of longer-lived supercells
which could become capable of producing strong tornadoes.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing
squall line across and east of the middle into lower Mississippi
Valley late this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South, with a couple
of strong tornadic supercells also possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama into adjacent Georgia
late tonight.
...Discussion...
To the north of an expanding blocking mid-level high, centered off
the southern California coast, models indicate that large-scale
ridging will continue to build inland of the British Columbia/U.S.
Pacific coast, through the Canadian Rockies and U.S. Intermountain
West during this period. Downstream, a significant short wave
trough is forecast to continue amplifying southeastward across the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, preceded by building ridging
near and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.
Downstream of the digging short wave trough, a broad and deep
cyclone has already formed to the east of the Colorado Rockies, with
a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central
and southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to redevelop east-northeast into
the St. Joseph MO vicinity by daybreak, before continuing to deepen
while migrating northeastward toward lower Michigan today through
tonight. It appears that the northeastern periphery of the elevated
mixed-layer plume will spread across the lower Missouri Valley
before becoming suppressed southeastward.
In the wake of a preceding surface cyclone and associated cold
frontal passage, Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return
flow remain limited at this time. Although it should improve some,
aside from a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moisture
return across the southeastern Great Plains toward the lower Ohio
Valley, and broader corridors across the southern through middle
Atlantic Seaboard, as well as across the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity
by late tonight, warm sector dew points may not exceed lower/mid 50s
F. This may prove a limiting factor to the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, guidance continues to indicate the development of a
fairly extensive squall line along much of the length of a cold
front advancing across and east of the Mississippi Valley toward the
Appalachians late this afternoon through tonight.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Great Lakes...
Latest model output suggests that the stronger 850 mb jet core may
tend to shift ahead of the deepening surface cyclone, north of the
Ohio Valley into and through the lower Great Lakes region during the
afternoon. However, 40-50+ kt southerly flow may tend to trail back
ahead of the cold front to the southwest, at least as far as the Mid
South vicinity through late afternoon, as a narrow corridor of
better boundary-layer moisture return (characterized by lower 60s F
surface dew points) surges across northeastern Arkansas and
southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, western Kentucky and
Tennessee.
North-northeast and east of this vicinity, toward the Great Lakes
and upper Ohio Valley, the narrow corridor of better pre-frontal
moisture is likely to be more modest and supportive of rather modest
to weak CAPE. And there is concern that deeper boundary-layer
warming and mixing in the drier pre-convective environment may
actually be more efficient at mixing down stronger momentum to the
surface than the thunderstorm activity.
However, based on the latest forecast soundings, there does still
appear potential for widespread potentially damaging wind gusts at
least approaching or exceeding 50 kts, with an evolving pre-frontal
squall line as it spreads across and east of the middle to lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity. Gusts exceeding 65 kts, and potential
for tornadoes, may tend to be confined to meso-vortices evolving
along the leading edge of the convective outflow, particularly
within the more moist environment across the lower Ohio Valley into
Mid South.
There may also be a late afternoon into early evening window of
opportunity, across this same corridor, for either initially
discrete supercell development or discrete supercell development
just ahead of the evolving eastward advancing line. If this occurs,
there will probably be at least somewhat greater potential for
strong tornadoes. However, this remains unclear, particularly given
the limited breadth of the moist sector, and the tendency for it to
be rather quickly overtaken by the cold front.
...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Models continue to indicate a separate area of better low-level
moisture return across the eastern Gulf coast, which may include
surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s across the
western Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia
by late tonight. It appears that this will support a corridor of
boundary-layer destabilization characterized by CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg. Coincident with enlarging, clockwise curved low-level
hodographs beneath 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow overspreading
the region, and in the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear,
there appears potential for the evolution of longer-lived supercells
which could become capable of producing strong tornadoes.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/15/2026
Read more
MD 0238 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Areas affected...Central to northern Wyoming
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 150043Z - 150445Z
SUMMARY...Rapidly falling temperatures, strong winds, and moderate
snowfall behind a sharp cold front are yielding brief
blizzard/snow-squall conditions across north-central Wyoming. These
conditions may persist and spread into central and eastern Wyoming
over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaics show a cold front rapidly pushing
southward to the west of the Big Horn mountains in north-central WY.
Surface observations behind the front have reported temperatures
falling from the low 50s and upper 40s to below freezing within an
hour. Concurrently, strong low-level cold advection (coupled with
strong background gradient winds) is yielding frequent post-frontal
wind gusts of 30-50 mph. This combination of rapidly falling
temperatures, strong wind gusts, and the development of light to
moderate snow showers within the frontal zone is yielding periods of
visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile based on regional
ASOS/AWOS reports and web cams.
The cold front is expected to continue pushing south/southeast over
the next several hours as a cyclone continues to intensify to the
east over the High Plains. Light to moderate snow showers will also
spread to the southeast, which may result in a rapid onset of
flash-freeze conditions and sudden visibility reductions under the
heavier snow showers across central to east-central WY where
temperatures are currently above freezing.
..Moore.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 45210878 45230814 45140781 43940477 43640444 43270442
42850457 42630489 42470530 42250587 42190655 42250729
42480785 42680832 42950870 43320906 44170971 44520984
44900976 45140936 45210878
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms capable of producing small to
marginally severe hail are possible overnight across parts of
central and eastern Iowa.
...01Z Update...
The categorical thunderstorm area across the Midwest has been
shifted southward a bit to account for the current position of the
low-level baroclinic zone, and its motion downstream of a surface
cyclone overnight. The center of the cyclone is forecast to migrate
from eastern Colorado into central Kansas through late this evening,
before reforming northeastward toward the St. Joseph MO vicinity by
early Sunday. Latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
moisture return to the immediate cool side of the developing warm
frontal zone may contribute to 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE,
near the nose of an intensifying south-southwesterly low-level jet
(including 50-70 kt around 850 mb) across the southern Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley by 15/09-12Z.
Strongest thunderstorm development seems likely to focus along a
tightening mid-level thermal gradient (centered around 700 mb) to
the north of the Missouri/Iowa state border vicinity, as warming
(and capping) elevated mixed-layer air advects northeast of the
central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley. Given the
generally cool overall profiles, storms may, at least initially,
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, before
this risk perhaps diminishes as convection becomes more widespread.
..Kerr.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms capable of producing small to
marginally severe hail are possible overnight across parts of
central and eastern Iowa.
...01Z Update...
The categorical thunderstorm area across the Midwest has been
shifted southward a bit to account for the current position of the
low-level baroclinic zone, and its motion downstream of a surface
cyclone overnight. The center of the cyclone is forecast to migrate
from eastern Colorado into central Kansas through late this evening,
before reforming northeastward toward the St. Joseph MO vicinity by
early Sunday. Latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
moisture return to the immediate cool side of the developing warm
frontal zone may contribute to 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE,
near the nose of an intensifying south-southwesterly low-level jet
(including 50-70 kt around 850 mb) across the southern Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley by 15/09-12Z.
Strongest thunderstorm development seems likely to focus along a
tightening mid-level thermal gradient (centered around 700 mb) to
the north of the Missouri/Iowa state border vicinity, as warming
(and capping) elevated mixed-layer air advects northeast of the
central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley. Given the
generally cool overall profiles, storms may, at least initially,
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, before
this risk perhaps diminishes as convection becomes more widespread.
..Kerr.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms capable of producing small to
marginally severe hail are possible overnight across parts of
central and eastern Iowa.
...01Z Update...
The categorical thunderstorm area across the Midwest has been
shifted southward a bit to account for the current position of the
low-level baroclinic zone, and its motion downstream of a surface
cyclone overnight. The center of the cyclone is forecast to migrate
from eastern Colorado into central Kansas through late this evening,
before reforming northeastward toward the St. Joseph MO vicinity by
early Sunday. Latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
moisture return to the immediate cool side of the developing warm
frontal zone may contribute to 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE,
near the nose of an intensifying south-southwesterly low-level jet
(including 50-70 kt around 850 mb) across the southern Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley by 15/09-12Z.
Strongest thunderstorm development seems likely to focus along a
tightening mid-level thermal gradient (centered around 700 mb) to
the north of the Missouri/Iowa state border vicinity, as warming
(and capping) elevated mixed-layer air advects northeast of the
central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley. Given the
generally cool overall profiles, storms may, at least initially,
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, before
this risk perhaps diminishes as convection becomes more widespread.
..Kerr.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.
...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
probability has been introduced.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
critical probabilities made into western OK.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
fuels are expected to remain.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
regions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.
...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
probability has been introduced.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
critical probabilities made into western OK.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
fuels are expected to remain.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
regions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
