SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.
...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
probability has been introduced.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
critical probabilities made into western OK.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
fuels are expected to remain.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
regions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. Recent observed
soundings from central/south Florida showed potential for marginally
severe storms, though a mid-level subsidence layer was noted with
northern extent. Additional short-term details can be found in MD
#237.
..Wendt.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. Recent observed
soundings from central/south Florida showed potential for marginally
severe storms, though a mid-level subsidence layer was noted with
northern extent. Additional short-term details can be found in MD
#237.
..Wendt.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. Recent observed
soundings from central/south Florida showed potential for marginally
severe storms, though a mid-level subsidence layer was noted with
northern extent. Additional short-term details can be found in MD
#237.
..Wendt.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A deep surface low will shift northeastward from the Central Plains
into Great Lakes region through D2/Sunday. Strong north to northwest
winds associated with a powerful cold front in wake of the departing
low will sweep across the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front will also contribute to
a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Breezy west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph ahead of the southward
advancing cold front amid an enhanced downslope regime should result
in Critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into western
TX. Relative humidity as low as 10% during peak boundary layer
mixing is expected, following poor overnight RH recoveries of 30% or
less to begin the day. Localized Extremely Critical fire weather
conditions are possible across portions of central NM along and east
of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot mid-level jet max at
the base of an advancing trough. The resultant enhanced downslope
regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts
coincide with relative humidity falling to around 10% should align
with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile range) to
support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover precludes introduction of Extremely
Critical Highlights for this update.
As the cold front quickly dives southward into the Southern Plains,
fire weather conditions should slightly improve after the initial
northerly wind shift with rising relative humidity and cooler
temperatures. However, deteriorating fire weather conditions,
despite cooler temperatures, reemerge a few hours later as surface
dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the southern High Plains. This
will result in 15% or lower relative humidity by peak afternoon
heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest winds. This could have a
considerable impact on active wildfires in receptive fuels should
they occur, particularly across Northwest TX where the driest
post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The overall fire
weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande Valley
region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the overnight
hours.
A general eastward expansion of Critical highlights was made into
northwestern TX and southwestern OK, with Elevated highlights
extended into central TX based on latest model guidance and slightly
drier conditions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A deep surface low will shift northeastward from the Central Plains
into Great Lakes region through D2/Sunday. Strong north to northwest
winds associated with a powerful cold front in wake of the departing
low will sweep across the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front will also contribute to
a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Breezy west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph ahead of the southward
advancing cold front amid an enhanced downslope regime should result
in Critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into western
TX. Relative humidity as low as 10% during peak boundary layer
mixing is expected, following poor overnight RH recoveries of 30% or
less to begin the day. Localized Extremely Critical fire weather
conditions are possible across portions of central NM along and east
of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot mid-level jet max at
the base of an advancing trough. The resultant enhanced downslope
regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts
coincide with relative humidity falling to around 10% should align
with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile range) to
support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover precludes introduction of Extremely
Critical Highlights for this update.
As the cold front quickly dives southward into the Southern Plains,
fire weather conditions should slightly improve after the initial
northerly wind shift with rising relative humidity and cooler
temperatures. However, deteriorating fire weather conditions,
despite cooler temperatures, reemerge a few hours later as surface
dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the southern High Plains. This
will result in 15% or lower relative humidity by peak afternoon
heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest winds. This could have a
considerable impact on active wildfires in receptive fuels should
they occur, particularly across Northwest TX where the driest
post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The overall fire
weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande Valley
region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the overnight
hours.
A general eastward expansion of Critical highlights was made into
northwestern TX and southwestern OK, with Elevated highlights
extended into central TX based on latest model guidance and slightly
drier conditions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A deep surface low will shift northeastward from the Central Plains
into Great Lakes region through D2/Sunday. Strong north to northwest
winds associated with a powerful cold front in wake of the departing
low will sweep across the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front will also contribute to
a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Breezy west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph ahead of the southward
advancing cold front amid an enhanced downslope regime should result
in Critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into western
TX. Relative humidity as low as 10% during peak boundary layer
mixing is expected, following poor overnight RH recoveries of 30% or
less to begin the day. Localized Extremely Critical fire weather
conditions are possible across portions of central NM along and east
of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot mid-level jet max at
the base of an advancing trough. The resultant enhanced downslope
regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts
coincide with relative humidity falling to around 10% should align
with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile range) to
support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover precludes introduction of Extremely
Critical Highlights for this update.
As the cold front quickly dives southward into the Southern Plains,
fire weather conditions should slightly improve after the initial
northerly wind shift with rising relative humidity and cooler
temperatures. However, deteriorating fire weather conditions,
despite cooler temperatures, reemerge a few hours later as surface
dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the southern High Plains. This
will result in 15% or lower relative humidity by peak afternoon
heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest winds. This could have a
considerable impact on active wildfires in receptive fuels should
they occur, particularly across Northwest TX where the driest
post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The overall fire
weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande Valley
region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the overnight
hours.
A general eastward expansion of Critical highlights was made into
northwestern TX and southwestern OK, with Elevated highlights
extended into central TX based on latest model guidance and slightly
drier conditions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO
SOUTHERN PA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts
of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for
strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on
parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to
afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
outlooks.
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.
Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
of morning storms.
Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
the afternoon.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO
SOUTHERN PA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts
of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for
strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on
parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to
afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
outlooks.
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.
Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
of morning storms.
Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
the afternoon.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should
develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across
a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant
severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower
Ohio Valley on Sunday evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify across the central states on Sunday and
become centered from WI to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Monday. Associated
surface cyclone will track from the IA/MO border to Lower MI,
deepening Sunday evening/night. As this occurs, attendant cold front
will accelerate eastward across the Mid-MS to the OH Valleys.
Trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the
northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast through Monday morning.
Primary changes with the level 3-ENH risk are to include a
10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and
addition of 15-percent and CIG1 hail areas. Expansion of level
1-2/MRGL-SLGT risk areas has occurred over the Southeast for mainly
the 06-12Z period Monday. Uncertainty is greatest on the western
extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern
extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment.
...South-Central/Southeast States to the Midwest...
In the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the
Mid/Upper MS Valley, midday convective development should occur
along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the
Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks. This activity may initially remain
shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the
afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards
the Ark-La-Tex and the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley. By late
afternoon, an extensively long QLCS should become established from
IL south-southwestward. Semi-discrete supercell development appears
most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective
plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening
warm/moist conveyor. This should support potential for large hail
and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed
within the broader QLCS during the evening. This scenario should
also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the
Mid-South to TN Valley. Despite this aspect, substantial
strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially
across the Mid-South vicinity and expanding to the OH to TN Valleys,
will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging
wind swaths through the evening.
On Sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should
become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains
minimal. But the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield
persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward
in the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Farther south, there are
increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective
development across the central to northeast Gulf Coast vicinity
early Monday morning. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to
semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive
QLCS. This should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained
tornado potential. Otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored
from at least the FL Panhandle to the southern Appalachians.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated today.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen over the northern
Rockies this afternoon, resulting in steep lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong large-scale forcing over northwest
WY. Despite cold surface temperatures, at least isolated
thunderstorms are expected.
A developing low-level baroclinic zone over MN/WI will be the focus
for thunderstorm development tonight as the low-level jet
strengthens. Much of this activity will likely be associated with
freezing precip and heavy snowfall.
Finally, scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of
central/south FL, in a rather weakly sheared environment.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/14/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast,
though the associated surface cold front will already be well
offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this
upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated
over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern
across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture
return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely
through Saturday/D8.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
..Thornton.. 03/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.
Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.
Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25%.
..Thornton.. 03/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to
southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to
be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana
during the evening and overnight hours.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the
Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper
level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into
Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO
into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as
it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from
the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This
front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys
overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.
A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the
cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer
and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial
low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and
toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60
F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as
the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over
the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the
mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern
Lower MI.
As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability
plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward
toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a
squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the
heart of the Enhanced Risk area.
Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and
the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms
across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight,
and perhaps along parts of the coast.
...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower
MI...
While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon
and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing
extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging
winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to
develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early
afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes.
Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in
the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and
eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into
western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push
rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and
isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A
conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the
front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early
Monday.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or
tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the
western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail
over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern
Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead
of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great
Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a
low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered
storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No
severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Progressive zonal flow continues across the central US this weekend
transitioning into a higher amplitude pattern early next week
characterized by deep troughing over the East and a strong ridge
over the West. On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig
southward into the central and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough
will track through the Great Lakes region by the end of Day 4/Monday
before lifting northeast on Day 5/Tuesday. Simultaneously, a robust
upper-level ridge will amplify over the western CONUS. By
mid-to-late week, the upper high is forecast over southern Arizona,
with much above normal geopotential heights over much of the western
CONUS.
On Day 3/Sunday, strong northwest flow on the backside of the
upper-level trough will maintain a corridor of strong winds and
persistent dry air across almost all of New Mexico and much of west
Texas. Both of the 40% and 70% probability areas were expanded to
account for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the
tightening surface pressure gradient associated with the advancing
cold front. Elevated to critical conditions will be ongoing in the
morning across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and northeast New Mexico
may see two periods of elevated/critical conditions interrupted by
the frontal passage. The wind shift from westerly to northerly is of
concern, especially with any ongoing wildfires. Meanwhile, the
central and northern Plains will see a transition to much more
stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
temperatures, allowing for a brief few days of relief from recent
critical conditions.
On Day 4/Monday, breezy and dry conditions are expected to persist
across eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass
remains dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface winds
are likely to remain below elevated thresholds. The 40% area was
expanded slightly over south Texas where northerly winds will
precede and overlap with dry air behind the cold front.
On Day 5/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
north to northwest upper-level flow over much of the central US.
With resultant increased boundary-layer mixing, another day of
widespread critical conditions will be possible over portions of the
southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal environment over
Georgia, Florida, and portions of the Carolinas, where fuels are
driest, will provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.
This area will continue to be watched closely over the coming days.
Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels
over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half
of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of
winds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH would suggest
extended burn periods in areas with receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS
...DISCUSSION...
...Updated discussion for D4...
The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a
deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move
eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of
the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector,
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand
northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as
far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface
heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for
ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as
well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce
relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.
...Previous discussion below...
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude
any severe threat through Friday/D8.
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