SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...20Z Update...
No changes are necessary to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 03/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/
...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas
to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be
from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during
the evening and overnight hours.
...Synopsis...
A 100+ knot mid-level jet will lead to rapid amplification as it
rounds the base of the mid-level trough across the Central Plains on
Sunday. As the associated surface cyclone moves northeastward
through the day, strong low-level moisture transport will occur
across the warm sector. This will result in weak to potentially
moderate instability ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This
cold front will accelerate east-southeastward from the Midwest to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and from Ohio to
western Georgia/eastern Alabama by Monday morning.
....Ohio Valley...
Despite dewpoints only increasing to the mid to upper 50s, a very
favorable kinematic environment will be in place with a 70 knot
low-level jet and nearly 125 knot mid-level jet by Monday morning.
Given this wind field, any instability, combined with the strong
frontal forcing, will be sufficient for a powerful QLCS during the
evening and overnight hours. This squall line will likely have
widespread 60+ mph wind gusts with some stronger 75+ mph wind gusts
possible.
In addition, very long hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH will
support a threat for line-embedded tornadoes, some of which could be
strong. Additionally, the strong shear may also allow for some
embedded supercells, also depicted by the 12Z RRFS, which also may
lead to a locally greater tornado threat. Pre-frontal development
cannot be ruled out, especially from northeast Arkansas to southern
Illinois at the nose of the 500mb jet and the northern extent of the
richer low-level moisture. This scenario is more uncertain, but
could pose a greater tornado threat if it were to materialize.
...Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
The squall line will form during the afternoon, perhaps with some
initial supercell/hail threat across Arkansas and northeast Texas
and then move northeastward through the overnight period. The
strongest low-mid level wind field will remain north of this region,
however, greater instability will compensate and should maintain the
damaging squall line through the overnight hours. The greatest STP
values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.
...FL/AL Coast...
Toward the end of the period, richer low-level moisture will begin
to move inland across the FL Panhandle into southern Alabama. Within
this zone, discrete convection may develop after 08Z. If this were
to occur, strong shear would support supercells capable of
tornadoes.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
The Critical area over New Mexico was significantly expanded to
include much of the eastern Colorado plains, the southwestern half
of Nebraska, and the northwest third of Kansas. Similarly, the
Elevated area was expanded to include the much of the western halves
of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, and far southeastern
Wyoming, portions of south-central Colorado, and nearly all of New
Mexico. The expansion of the risk areas are notable given the
ongoing very large fires in central/western Nebraska.
The latest forecast guidance shows critically windy and dry surface
conditions developing over much of the Front Range and pushing much
farther east across much of the central High Plains. Sustained
westerly winds of 20-30 with widespread RHs of 10-15% can be
anticipated across much of this area. Locally extremely critical
conditions are possible in the lee of the Colorado Rockies during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Elevated to critical
conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours on
portions of the central and southern High Plains.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move southward across the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies on D2/Saturday. As westerly flow develops
across the Rockies, strong lee cyclone development is likely on
D2/Saturday across the Nebraska Panhandle. As a result, westerly
surface gradients will strengthen across the central/southern High
Plains. Very strong/dry downslope flow is expected to develop,
particularly across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. In
this region, sustained westerly surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap
relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. This in combination
with dry fuels will support maintaining Critical fire areas for
Saturday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to
extend into eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming/western
Nebraska. The immediate area in the lee of the higher terrain in
eastern Colorado may see locally Critical conditions. This area may
need to be included in further outlooks if trends increase or
confidence in mountain wave activity increases. Elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on
portions of the southern and central High Plains.
Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will extend into
portions of western New Mexico and Arizona. For now, fuels in this
region are not supportive but this event will work to precondition
fuels amid temperatures well above normal.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Discussion...
A generally zonal pattern across the CONUS will become more
amplified on Saturday with a trough developing across the Plains by
the end of the period. A lack of moisture will limit severe weather
concerns Saturday and Saturday night.
Where greater moisture is present across Florida, isolated storms
are expected on Saturday amid moderate instability and weak height
falls. Shear will be on the weaker side (~25 knots) and mid-level
lapse rates will remain weak. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm
is possible, but more organized severe storms are not expected.
Isolated thunderstorms may be possible north of the warm front from
northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin early
Sunday morning given the strong isentropic ascent, but forecast
soundings show relatively meager moisture/instability at this time,
which may preclude more widespread thunderstorm development.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
There are no updates to the outlook as the forecast remains on
track. Dry return flow over portions of central and northern Texas
could experience brief localized elevated conditions today. See the
previous forecast discussion below for additional details.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will be likely across portions of the
southern High Plains today. Overlap of relative humidity around
10-15% with sustained west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and
receptive fuels will support a broad area of Elevated fire concerns
in the lee of the higher terrain from eastern Wyoming to New Mexico
and east in NE, KS, OK Panhandle. A few more favored downslope
locations in the immediate lee of the terrain across central New
Mexico and south-central Colorado will see locally Critical
conditions at times. For now, this area remains too localized for
inclusion of Critical areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.
...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.
At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday
morning.
Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.
Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.
The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
Read more
MD 0236 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF UPPER MI...NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI...northern Lower MI...and far
northeastern WI
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 130706Z - 131100Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour (locally
higher) are expected through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...Within the base of a compact shortwave trough moving
eastward across MN, water-vapor imagery and VWP data indicate a
robust jet streak (around 100 kt at 6 km per VWP data) impinging on
WI. In response, a northwest/southeast-oriented frontogenetic zone
is evolving slowly northeastward across WI, Upper MI, and northern
Lower MI. Forcing for ascent is being maximized along/immediately
north of this zone, where cold/deeply saturated profiles and the
focused ascent are favoring a band of moderate to heavy snow. The
strong/focused ascent within a deep/saturated DGZ will continue to
favor heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour, though locally
higher rates to around 2 inches per hour are possible under the core
of the band translating northeastward across Upper MI into northern
Lower MI through the early morning hours.
..Weinman.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 44318652 45258770 46658930 47168927 47518865 47538779
47038636 46598548 45838455 45048402 44518375 43928393
43598463 43778565 44318652
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move southward across the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies on D2/Saturday. As westerly flow develops
across the Rockies, strong lee cyclone development is likely on
D2/Saturday across the Nebraska Panhandle. As a result, westerly
surface gradients will strengthen across the central/southern High
Plains. Very strong/dry downslope flow is expected to develop,
particularly across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. In
this region, sustained westerly surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap
relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. This in combination
with dry fuels will support maintaining Critical fire areas for
Saturday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to
extend into eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming/western
Nebraska. The immediate area in the lee of the higher terrain in
eastern Colorado may see locally Critical conditions. This area may
need to be included in further outlooks if trends increase or
confidence in mountain wave activity increases. Elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on
portions of the southern and central High Plains.
Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will extend into
portions of western New Mexico and Arizona. For now, fuels in this
region are not supportive but this event will work to precondition
fuels amid temperatures well above normal.
..Thornton.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will be likely across portions of the
southern High Plains today. Overlap of relative humidity around
10-15% with sustained west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and
receptive fuels will support a broad area of Elevated fire concerns
in the lee of the higher terrain from eastern Wyoming to New Mexico
and east in NE, KS, OK Panhandle. A few more favored downslope
locations in the immediate lee of the terrain across central New
Mexico and south-central Colorado will see locally Critical
conditions at times. For now, this area remains too localized for
inclusion of Critical areas.
..Thornton.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.
At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints.
...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.
...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.
At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints.
...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.
...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...South Florida...
Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula
during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low
latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest
diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the
southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to
migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end
of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak
buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this
weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak
to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...South Florida...
Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula
during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low
latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest
diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the
southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to
migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end
of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak
buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this
weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak
to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026
Read more
MD 0235 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Areas affected...northeastern North Dakota...northern
Minnesota...northern Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 122150Z - 130145Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will overspread portions of northeastern North
Dakota, northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin tonight with
snowfall rates likely range 1-2 inches per hour at times.
DISCUSSION...A deepening surface low will shift southeastward from
North Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight.
Strong low-level warm air advection within the 900-700 mb layer
aided by DCVA ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and favorable
jet streak dynamics are expected to combine to promote strong ascent
within the dendritic growth zone. This will support heavy snowfall
along and north of the track of the surface low, with rates 1-2
inches per hour at times.
A strong surface pressure gradient on the northwestern periphery of
the surface low will support the potential for sustained northerly
winds at 30 mph, with the potential for wind gusts to 50+ mph. Given
this, blowing snow is likely, with brief periods of blizzard
conditions possible, especially across the northern Red River Valley
late this evening.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48619289 47689105 46419028 46189041 46189167 46629310
47429692 47949900 48269935 48559949 48759941 48999926
49039919 49099585 49339506 49289481 48949470 48669442
48559357 48619289
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Progressive zonal flow continues across the central CONUS this
weekend transitioning into a more high-amplitude pattern early next
week and persisting through the forecast period. On Day 4/Sunday, an
upper level trough will dig aggressively southward into the central
and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough tracks through the
southern Appalachians by the end of Day 5/Monday before moving
toward the northeast CONUS on Day 6/Tuesday. Recent forecast
guidance continues to exhibit a notable southern trend and slower
eastward progression with this trough's evolution, introducing some
uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the peak wind as it shifts
eastward. Simultaneously, a robust upper-level ridge will amplify
over the western CONUS. By mid-to-late week, this ridge is forecast
to center over Arizona, with near-record heights over much of the
Southwest.
On Day 3/Saturday, the latest guidance continues to favor robust
surface winds over the southern and central Rockies, extending into
the adjacent High Plains. This area will continue to be watched
closely for a potential mountain wave that would enhance lee side
winds. The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west is the higher fuel moisture in place across extreme
western New Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are
expected to meet criteria. However, this event will serve to
pre-condition fuels in these areas as surface temperatures remain
nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout much of the central and
southern High Plains. Additionally, elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on portions
of the southern and central High Plains.
On Day 4/Sunday, as the trough axis shifts, vigorous northwest flow
on the backside of the system will maintain a corridor of strong
winds and persistent dry air across SE New Mexico and West Texas.
Both of the 40% and 70% probabilities areas were expanded to account
for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the tightening
surface pressure gradient ahead of the advancing cold front.
Conversely, the central and northern Plains will see a transition to
much more stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
temperatures, keeping these regions below critical thresholds.
On Day 5/Monday, expect breezy and dry conditions to persist across
eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass remains
dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface wind speeds
appear more localized and marginal. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, the lack of a widespread, tightened
surface pressure gradient suggests a lower probability of a critical
area at this lead time. An area of 40% probability was added over
extreme south Texas where northerly winds will combine with dry air
behind the front.
On Day 6/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
north to northwest upper level flow above much of the central CONUS.
With warmer surface temperatures and resultant higher surface
mixing, more widespread critical conditions will be possible over
portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal
environment over Georgia and Florida, where fuels are driest, will
provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to
cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, temperatures and RHs would suggest extended
burn periods across these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for damaging winds will continue for another hour
or so across far eastern North Carolina. Strong convective wind
gusts remain possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as
well.
...20Z Update...
Probabilities have been removed behind a line of thunderstorms
across eastern North Carolina. A short-term severe threat persists
across the Outer Banks, where isolated damaging winds may occur for
the next hour or so. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities have been
trimmed from eastern MT, with no changes to the Marginal Risk across
the northern Plains.
..Broyles.. 03/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/
...Carolinas and North Florida...
A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move
quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas
in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast.
Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some
threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as
filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level
lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse
rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest
instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to
southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still
sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded
circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and
guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the
line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western
Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for
parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should
exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line.
...Northern Plains...
Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will
spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in
tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over
the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very
weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern
Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of
lightning. This convection could augment the already strong
west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface
wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur
with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this
scenario remains low.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Zonal upper-level flow over the CONUS early Saturday will give way
to amplification of an upper trough late Saturday and into Sunday
over the Plains. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated as a surface low
deepens within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet and
migrates from eastern WY into the eastern Plains. Increasing
southerly winds will advect moisture northward into the southern
Plains through the forecast period, but in the wake of the recent
frontal passage, moisture return will likely be insufficient to
overcome stout capping at the base of an expansive EML. Sporadic
lightning flashes appear possible within the warm advection branch
of the intensifying cyclone, but forecast soundings show poor
agreement with regards to the availability of MUCAPE. Thunderstorms
are most probable across south Florida and along the eastern FL, GA,
and SC coasts. While displaced from the strengthening low over the
Plains, southerly winds will support a weak warm advection regime
within a moist, buoyant, and uncapped environment. Diffuse forcing
for ascent and poor flow aloft should limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms.
..Moore.. 03/12/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
The Elevated area focused on the lee side of the central and
southern Rocky Mountains remains on track for Day 2/Friday. Slight
expansions were made to account for the latest forecast guidance
showing winds reaching farther into western Kansas and over central
Colorado valleys. While conditions are not expected to reach
critical wind/RH criteria over a wide area, localized near-critical
conditions will be possible in portions of central New Mexico and
south-central Colorado where enhanced by gap and downslope winds.
Additionally, strong winds associated with the upper level jet are
expected over portions of the central Appalachian Mountains
throughout Virginia. However, recent rainfall over these areas will
keep fuel moistures sub-critical over the larger region.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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