Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection, precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff low's progression. The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection, precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff low's progression. The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0179 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AR into northwest MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28... Valid 091703Z - 091830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #28, and will gradually spread eastward into MS -- where a new watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across central AR, with deeper/embedded cores noted along the southern fringes of this activity. As low-level moisture continues streaming northward amid filtered diurnal heating, the stronger cores capable of producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts may remain focused over the southern periphery of the larger cluster. With time, these storms will continue spreading eastward into northern/central MS, with additional warm-advection-driven development also possible. Increasing buoyancy into this corridor and around 40 kt of effective shear will promote a continued risk of large hail and damaging gusts. While timing is uncertain, a downstream watch may eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34669373 35029346 35139268 35219162 35119106 34769006 34428972 33948976 33409013 33209064 33229113 33729312 33969360 34279383 34669373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of LA into southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091812Z - 092015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms may pose a risk of damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a localized/brief tornado risk. DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broad/weak low-level warm advection in southern/central LA, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is aiding in destabilization and removal of inhibition. As a result, a modest uptick in thunderstorm strength and coverage has occurred over the last 30 minutes or so. While the lingering inhibition and generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on thunderstorm intensification/longevity, around 30-40 kt of effective shear (stronger with northward extent) and small clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may support a couple loosely organized storms through the afternoon. The stronger/longer-lived storms will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, though the moist boundary layer and low-level streamwise vorticity may support a localized/brief tornado risk as well. Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too localized for a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101 32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229 30389313 30509363 30829390 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELD TO 20 S LIT TO 25 NE LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179 ..CHALMERS..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-025-041-043-069-079-085-095-117-091940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 28 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 091345Z - 092000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southern Arkansas Extreme souheast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will spread eastward from southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas through the morning, with additional storm development possible into southern Arkansas. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be the main threat through the morning, though upscale storm growth could support the potential for some wind damage by late morning into early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of De Queen AR to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0029 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0029 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas. Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. ...Midwest... The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance. Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly. However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface pressure falls/ascent will be maximized. ...Southern Plains... 12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+ inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas. Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. ...Midwest... The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance. Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly. However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface pressure falls/ascent will be maximized. ...Southern Plains... 12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+ inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia. ...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening... A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia. ...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening... A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today. Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today. Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-061-069- 073-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127- 133-139-149-091640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER UNION YELL OKC089-091640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0028 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR AND FAR NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeast OK/northeast TX into AR and far northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091210Z - 091415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed across parts of south-central/southeast OK this morning, within a low-level warm-advection regime and in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across OK. Increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb layer beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in MUCAPE values of greater than 1000 J/kg from north TX into AR, which will aid in the development of potentially robust updrafts. Coverage of storms through mid morning remains somewhat uncertain, due to the only modest large-scale ascent associated with the weakening shortwave trough. However, moderate mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with any sustained robust updrafts becoming capable of producing large hail and locally gusty winds. Watch issuance is considered unlikely in the short term, with the expectation that the severe threat will generally remain isolated through mid morning. Greater severe potential is still expected from late morning into the afternoon across parts of AR/MS, when surface-based destabilization becomes more supportive of organized cells and/or clusters. ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35199666 35749427 35639267 35409202 34869173 33969238 33309381 33119480 33129553 33309636 33579692 34239717 35199666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091332Z - 091500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Risk of severe hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts will continue spreading eastward across southern Arkansas into this afternoon. A watch will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated splitting supercells is ongoing across far southeastern OK this morning, which is being aided by large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel impulse and broad/weak low-level warm advection. As the impulse continues eastward, these storms (and additional development) will continue eastward across southern AR into this afternoon. Around 40 to 50 kt of midlevel flow (per nearby VWP) and steep midlevel lapse rates will favor large hail with primarily elevated supercells. Diurnal heating may eventually support surface-based storms, with an increase in the damaging-wind risk, as this activity continues eastward. A watch will be issued shortly for southern AR. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 33439378 33779431 34199478 34719459 34919416 34929358 34699231 34349166 33839141 33249162 33239241 33439378 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South through the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave. Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and Mid-South through much the Southeast. ...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast... A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional information for this early morning activity. Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant, with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a low-probability tornado threat. ...Southern AZ... A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy, suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026 Read more