Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of hail may linger across South Texas today. ...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia... At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing 80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain. ...South Texas... A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment. Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and latest SPC Mesoanalysis data. ..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Monday across parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast. ...Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Southeast... A southern-stream, low-amplitude midlevel impulse and accompanying 40-kt speed max will advance eastward from the central Plains into the TN Valley through the afternoon and evening. Steepened midlevel lapse rates accompanying this feature will overspread a plume of middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which combined with diurnal heating in cloud breaks, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley). Initial thunderstorms should develop within a zone of weak/broad low-level warm advection preceding the midlevel impulse over the Arklatex vicinity, before spreading/developing eastward through the afternoon/evening. Around 40 kt of effective shear (with modestly enhanced low-level hodograph curvature) and the aforementioned buoyancy should support a mix of small organized clusters and supercells -- both posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Any established semi-discrete supercells that evolve will be capable of producing very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Monday across parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast. ...Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Southeast... A southern-stream, low-amplitude midlevel impulse and accompanying 40-kt speed max will advance eastward from the central Plains into the TN Valley through the afternoon and evening. Steepened midlevel lapse rates accompanying this feature will overspread a plume of middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which combined with diurnal heating in cloud breaks, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley). Initial thunderstorms should develop within a zone of weak/broad low-level warm advection preceding the midlevel impulse over the Arklatex vicinity, before spreading/developing eastward through the afternoon/evening. Around 40 kt of effective shear (with modestly enhanced low-level hodograph curvature) and the aforementioned buoyancy should support a mix of small organized clusters and supercells -- both posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Any established semi-discrete supercells that evolve will be capable of producing very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the southern Plains highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the southern Plains highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the southern Plains highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of hail may linger across South Texas today. ...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia... At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing 80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain. ...South Texas... A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment. Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and latest SPC Mesoanalysis data. ..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly northeastward and moving off the New England and northern Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening. At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast, as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and weak low to mid-level flow. ...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon. Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more organized and persistent updrafts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly northeastward and moving off the New England and northern Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening. At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast, as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and weak low to mid-level flow. ...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon. Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more organized and persistent updrafts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly northeastward and moving off the New England and northern Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening. At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast, as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and weak low to mid-level flow. ...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon. Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more organized and persistent updrafts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK. There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features, but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on various guidance. Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK. There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features, but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on various guidance. Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK. There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features, but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on various guidance. Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed... A large-scale upper trough will continue to shift east across the central U.S. on Wednesday, becoming oriented from the Upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast vicinity by Thursday morning. An embedded shortwave within the base of this trough will move from the southern Plains to the Deep South, while the northern branch of the trough moves across the Midwest. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a broad warm sector across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast through the period, tracking across much of the Mid/Lower MS, OH and TN Valleys. Uncertainty exists regarding where convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, and some potential exists for widespread thunderstorm activity across parts of the Midwest. As a result, it is uncertain how far north quality thermodynamics will exist. Nevertheless, it appears likely at least some severe risk will exist across the Ohio Valley given favorable boundary-layer moisture and impressive vertical shear profiles. Further southwest toward the Lower MS Valley into the Deep South vicinity, morning convection may be more limited compared to further north, allowing for more extensive destabilization ahead of the surging cold front. A mixed-mode of supercells ahead of the cold front, and an organized line of storms along the cold front will be possible across this area. As mesoscale details become better resolved in the coming days, the severe area for Wednesday is likely to shift some. However, the overall pattern suggests a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential is probable on Wednesday. ...Day 5/Thu... Some severe thunderstorm potential could persist into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However, uncertainty is fairly high given this potential will depend on evolution of convection on Day 4/Wed, which could be quite extensive and outpace the surface front Wednesday night into early Day 5/Thu. As such, predictability is low. ...Days 6-8/Fri-Sun... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the weekend as broad upper troughing persists across the central/eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed... A large-scale upper trough will continue to shift east across the central U.S. on Wednesday, becoming oriented from the Upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast vicinity by Thursday morning. An embedded shortwave within the base of this trough will move from the southern Plains to the Deep South, while the northern branch of the trough moves across the Midwest. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a broad warm sector across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast through the period, tracking across much of the Mid/Lower MS, OH and TN Valleys. Uncertainty exists regarding where convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, and some potential exists for widespread thunderstorm activity across parts of the Midwest. As a result, it is uncertain how far north quality thermodynamics will exist. Nevertheless, it appears likely at least some severe risk will exist across the Ohio Valley given favorable boundary-layer moisture and impressive vertical shear profiles. Further southwest toward the Lower MS Valley into the Deep South vicinity, morning convection may be more limited compared to further north, allowing for more extensive destabilization ahead of the surging cold front. A mixed-mode of supercells ahead of the cold front, and an organized line of storms along the cold front will be possible across this area. As mesoscale details become better resolved in the coming days, the severe area for Wednesday is likely to shift some. However, the overall pattern suggests a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential is probable on Wednesday. ...Day 5/Thu... Some severe thunderstorm potential could persist into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However, uncertainty is fairly high given this potential will depend on evolution of convection on Day 4/Wed, which could be quite extensive and outpace the surface front Wednesday night into early Day 5/Thu. As such, predictability is low. ...Days 6-8/Fri-Sun... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the weekend as broad upper troughing persists across the central/eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed... A large-scale upper trough will continue to shift east across the central U.S. on Wednesday, becoming oriented from the Upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast vicinity by Thursday morning. An embedded shortwave within the base of this trough will move from the southern Plains to the Deep South, while the northern branch of the trough moves across the Midwest. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a broad warm sector across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast through the period, tracking across much of the Mid/Lower MS, OH and TN Valleys. Uncertainty exists regarding where convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, and some potential exists for widespread thunderstorm activity across parts of the Midwest. As a result, it is uncertain how far north quality thermodynamics will exist. Nevertheless, it appears likely at least some severe risk will exist across the Ohio Valley given favorable boundary-layer moisture and impressive vertical shear profiles. Further southwest toward the Lower MS Valley into the Deep South vicinity, morning convection may be more limited compared to further north, allowing for more extensive destabilization ahead of the surging cold front. A mixed-mode of supercells ahead of the cold front, and an organized line of storms along the cold front will be possible across this area. As mesoscale details become better resolved in the coming days, the severe area for Wednesday is likely to shift some. However, the overall pattern suggests a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential is probable on Wednesday. ...Day 5/Thu... Some severe thunderstorm potential could persist into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However, uncertainty is fairly high given this potential will depend on evolution of convection on Day 4/Wed, which could be quite extensive and outpace the surface front Wednesday night into early Day 5/Thu. As such, predictability is low. ...Days 6-8/Fri-Sun... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the weekend as broad upper troughing persists across the central/eastern U.S. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle and into far western OK. ...Central High Plains... A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire spread on Monday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle and into far western OK. ...Central High Plains... A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire spread on Monday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more