SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Deep convection is gradually waning across coastal Carolina and
south-central TX early this evening, primarily due to boundary-layer
cooling and weak forcing. Lightning will quickly move off the
Carolina coast over the next hour, but isolated thunderstorms are
expected to linger across south-central TX and over the FL Peninsula
for the next few hours. Otherwise, no severe is expected.
..Darrow.. 03/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the
Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the
weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the
CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough
will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the
CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow
over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40
percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong
northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4
(Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions
of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this
time.
A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will
overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in
strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions
are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent
Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical
probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and
consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry
fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across
portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the
weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the
Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the
weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the
CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough
will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the
CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow
over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40
percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong
northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4
(Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions
of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this
time.
A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will
overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in
strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions
are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent
Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical
probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and
consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry
fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across
portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the
weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the
Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the
weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the
CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough
will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the
CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow
over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40
percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong
northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4
(Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions
of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this
time.
A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will
overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in
strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions
are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent
Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical
probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and
consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry
fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across
portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the
weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong may linger across South Texas this
afternoon.
...20z Update...
The Marginal across south Texas was removed with this outlook as
storm intensity has decreased with conditions becoming less
favorable. Only minor adjustments were made to trim on the western
fringe of the Marginal Area across the Carolinas to account for
ongoing convective trends. See previous discussion for more
information.
..Thornton.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong may linger across South Texas this
afternoon.
...20z Update...
The Marginal across south Texas was removed with this outlook as
storm intensity has decreased with conditions becoming less
favorable. Only minor adjustments were made to trim on the western
fringe of the Marginal Area across the Carolinas to account for
ongoing convective trends. See previous discussion for more
information.
..Thornton.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong may linger across South Texas this
afternoon.
...20z Update...
The Marginal across south Texas was removed with this outlook as
storm intensity has decreased with conditions becoming less
favorable. Only minor adjustments were made to trim on the western
fringe of the Marginal Area across the Carolinas to account for
ongoing convective trends. See previous discussion for more
information.
..Thornton.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Read more
MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Carolina coastal plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081821Z - 082045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development appears increasingly probable through 3-5 PM EDT, some
of which may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail and
localized potentially damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Convergence within surface troughing across the coastal
plain still appears generally weak, but substantive destabilization
is ongoing along a broad confluence zone and corridor of stronger
surface heating south of Columbia SC through the Greenville NC
vicinity. Where surface dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s,
it appears that mixed-layer CAPE is now on the order of 1000 J/kg,
with inhibition eroding beneath modestly shear 30-35 kt
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.
Deepening convective development is underway along this corridor,
and it appears that thunderstorms may begin to initiate leading to
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by 19-21Z.
This may be aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent now beginning to
spread east-northeast of the southern Appalachians/eastern Gulf
Coast states.
Although deep-layer shear appears marginal, some strengthening of
mid-level flow could support a few transient supercell structures as
storms begin to intensify. Some of this activity may pose a risk
for small to marginally severe hail. Although low-level flow and
shear is likely to remain modest to weak, forecast soundings
indicate lower through mid-tropospheric profiles becoming
sufficiently steep to support localized potentially damaging wind
gusts, aided by melting hail and evaporative cooling.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 34238055 34987957 35607791 36077649 36097590 35347570
34707717 34067881 33578036 34238055
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.
...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.
...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.
...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.
..Weinman.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.
...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.
...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.
...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.
..Weinman.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.
...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.
...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.
...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.
..Weinman.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.
...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.
...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.
...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.
..Weinman.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for
portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest
guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow
afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH,
several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a
widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry
conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread
to warrant Critical highlights.
The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on
track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to
adjust for the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels.
...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.
...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for
portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest
guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow
afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH,
several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a
widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry
conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread
to warrant Critical highlights.
The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on
track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to
adjust for the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels.
...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.
...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for
portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest
guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow
afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH,
several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a
widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry
conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread
to warrant Critical highlights.
The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on
track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to
adjust for the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels.
...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.
...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for
portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest
guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow
afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH,
several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a
widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry
conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread
to warrant Critical highlights.
The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on
track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to
adjust for the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels.
...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.
...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of
hail may linger across South Texas today.
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of
hail may linger across South Texas today.
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026
Read more
