Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds across parts of the eastern Carolinas through this afternoon. A brief tornado or two could also occur with this activity. Strong convective wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well. ...Carolinas and North Florida... A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line. ...Northern Plains... Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of lightning. This convection could augment the already strong west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this scenario remains low. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/12/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 12 15:47:03 UTC 2026.

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/12/26 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC007-013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-079-085-093-095-101- 103-105-107-125-129-133-137-141-147-153-155-163-165-191-195- 121640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MOORE NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND WAYNE WILSON SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-121640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION Read more

WW 51 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 121430Z - 122100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of low-topped thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as it moves quickly east-northeastward this morning into the afternoon. A brief embedded tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Florence SC to 80 miles east of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 50... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E OGB TO 40 NW FLO. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 121700Z. ..GRAMS..03/12/26 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC015-025-027-061-121700- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON LEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 50 TORNADO GA SC 121110Z - 121700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern and Southeastern Georgia Much of Central and Southern South Carolina * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to continue progressing eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Strong shear, particularly in the low levels, will support a threat for damaging wind gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes for the next several hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Columbia SC to 65 miles south of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon. A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Strong wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... Early-morning satellite imagery shows phased shortwave troughs within the broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the southern shortwave progressing through the Southeast and the northern shortwave moving into the Middle OH Valley. A convective line, aided by ascent attendant to the southern shortwave, continues to progress eastward/northeastward across GA and the FL Panhandle. A warm, moist, and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints ranging from the low 60s across the Carolinas to the low 70s across northern FL. Expectation is for this line to persist as it continues eastward/northeastward, with perhaps some slowing of the southern portion of the line as it becomes displaced south of the better forcing for ascent. Central portion of this line nearest the strongest forcing will likely have the deepest updrafts for the next several hours before progressing northeastward of the better moisture and buoyancy as it moves across NC. Robust low to mid-level flow will remain in place, supporting the potential for damaging gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... Intense mid-level flow (i.e. 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon, in tandem with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the region. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning. This convection could augment the already strong westerly/northwesterly flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Significant wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/12/2026 Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PFN TO 25 E MAI TO 10 NNE ABY TO 20 W MCN TO 15 SW AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 ..DEAN..03/12/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-065-073-077-129-121240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC009-017-019-021-023-027-071-075-079-081-087-091-093-107-125- 131-133-141-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175-185-205-209-211-225- 235-237-253-265-271-275-277-279-283-287-289-301-303-309-315-317- 319-321-121240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS COLQUITT COOK CRAWFORD CRISP DECATUR DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK Read more

MD 0228 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 48...49... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Areas affected...parts of southwestern through east central Alabama and adjacent portions of Georgia...the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...49... Valid 120457Z - 120700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48, 49 continues. SUMMARY...An organized line of storms will overspread the region through 2-4 AM EDT, with some further increase in potential for tornadoes still possible. DISCUSSION...Although there has been a general warming of colder cloud tops associated with the convective system, a few embedded supercell structures persist, with occasional strengthening mesovortices along the eastward progressing convective outflow. Boundary-layer cooling with the loss of daytime heating has slowed in advance of the line, and low-level moistening continues in a narrow corridor across southwestern into central Alabama, including surface dew points increasing through the upper 60s to near 70F across and northeast of Selma. Likely in association with a broader weak migrating surface wave, the latest Rapid Refresh forecasts further strengthening of flow around 850 mb in excess of 40 kt across southern/eastern Alabama through 06-08Z. Given continuing inflow of air characterized by at least weak CAPE, additional enlargement of clockwise curved low-level hodographs could still support increasing potential for tornadoes during the next few hours. ..Kerr.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 32958486 32638465 31848557 30458697 30278781 30338876 31698764 33128627 32958486 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MOB TO 25 WSW GZH TO 15 WNW MGM TO 40 SSW ANB TO 10 NE ANB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 ..DEAN..03/12/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067-069- 081-085-087-101-109-111-113-123-120740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC005-013-033-039-045-059-063-077-091-113-131-133-120740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GADSDEN GULF HOLMES Read more

WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 120430Z - 121200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 49 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Western and Central Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms with embedded cells and bowing segments will continue east across the Watch during the overnight and into the early morning. Low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen coincident with gradual moistening and destabilization of the airmass. The environment will support a continuation of storm organization and an accompanying threat for scattered damaging wind gusts and a tornado risk with the more intense embedded cells within the line. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of La Grange GA to 45 miles southeast of Pensacola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface. Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes Critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains. ...Central and Southern Great Plains... Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity (25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall. In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10% relative humidity and critically dry fuels. ..Halbert.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM TO 40 N BVE TO 25 NE MOB TO 30 W GZH TO 20 S SEM TO 40 NNW MGM. ..DEAN..03/12/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC075-120740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE PLAQUEMINES GMZ532-536-538-632-120740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND CHANDELEUR SOUND BRETON SOUND MISSISSIPPI SOUND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A diffuse surface boundary will reside across central FL on Friday. To the south of the boundary, a seasonally warm and moist airmass will be in place. This will support modest destabilization during the afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly across south FL. Poor lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and a lack of forcing for ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon. A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Southeast: A well-developed squall line has evolved ahead of a pronounced low-latitude short-wave trough. This line of convection currently extends across the central Gulf states and is advancing steadily east in line with latest model guidance. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short wave that is becoming a bit more negative-tilt as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This feature will eject into AL by the start of the day1 period with substantial midlevel height falls forecast across much of the Southeast early in the period. Upper 60s to lower 70s surface dew points have returned inland across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, and a narrow wedge of modified Gulf air should be in place across the eastern FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA at sunrise. Current trends suggest the leading edge of strong/severe convection will propagate into this portion of the Southeast around 12z. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts and given the large-scale support ahead of the trough, activity should remain organized at the start of the period. Some consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities for a narrow wedge immediately ahead of the front for early in the period. If the squall line continues severe this may be warranted at 13z. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop along the progressive front as it spreads across portions of the Carolinas. Severe threat is primarily before 18z, as the cold front will surge off the Carolina coast by this time. Northern Plains: Strong midlevel jet will dig southeast across MT into SD with 500mb speeds expected in excess of 120kt into the northern High Plains. AB clipper will dig southeast into the upper Red River region by late afternoon and northwesterly flow will strengthen across this region as the cyclone shifts east. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning. While strong winds will likely develop across eastern MT into SD as lapse rates steepen, thunderstorms are not expected to be the primary driver of severe wind gusts. For this reason severe probabilities will not be introduced. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 03/12/2026 Read more

MD 0187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa/northeastern Missouri into northern Illinois and northwest Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101853Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development along a surface warm front appears likely across portions of the Midwest this afternoon, with a threat for all severe hazards, including hail to 2+ inches in diameter and a risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). While the timing of convective initiation remains somewhat uncertain, a Tornado Watch will be needed to cover this threat within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts deepening cumulus across portions of northeastern Missouri into southwestern Iowa and western Illinois. Recent observations also show an increasingly unstable low-level air mass characterized by low-to-mid 60s F surface dewpoints south of a warm frontal boundary. While synoptic-scale forcing is expected to remain modest at best, continued low-level moist advection coupled with diurnal heating and strong mid-to-upper level flow across the Midwest are expected to support scattered severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, and strong effective bulk shear 50+ kts will support a very favorable environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail of 2+ inches in diameter will be possible initially. While low-level shear is currently modest per the ILX 18Z special sounding and VWP, a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet will favor an accompanying strong increase in low-level shear and effective SRH through this evening. The resultant enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will support intense low-level mesocyclones with supercells and an increasing risk for tornadoes (some within the EF2-3+ range) along and immediately south of the surface warm front. While low-level stability is expected to limit tornado potential north of this boundary, elevated supercells that develop/persist on the cool side of the warm front will continue to pose a threat for large to very large hail. The timing of convective initiation remains a bit uncertain, but a Tornado Watch will be needed within the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 03/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41039205 41309188 41529106 41559007 41658890 41658791 41688721 41568648 41408623 41198615 40888630 40678675 40518715 40448741 40288838 40248898 40228965 40219039 40209104 40329153 40479192 40599207 41039205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR IN THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Areas affected...in the northeast TX Panhandle...northwest OK...and south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102034Z - 102230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail are possible in the short-term across the northeast Texas Panhandle. The severe threat should increase this evening, with a corridor of supercell clustering towards south-central Kansas. DISCUSSION...Rather high-based and isolated storm development has occurred across the TX Panhandle over the past couple hours. Convection should further increase and eventually consolidate over the northeast Panhandle into northwest OK, in advance of the northern lobe of the broader shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. A strengthening low-level jet into early evening should support a northward advancement of progressively richer low-level moisture across much of the body of OK. This should support an uptick in convective intensity as storms impinge on this increasing moisture, evolving along the quasi-stationary southwest/northeast-oriented front into south-central KS. The initial severe threat should remain mainly isolated and marginal. But the expected strengthening of storms during the evening could support increasing peak intensities, along with a confined corridor of severe storms into south-central KS. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35950102 36490035 37599845 37859750 37739707 36799742 36399836 35949951 35660035 35680085 35950102 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0032 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 32 TORNADO IA IL IN MO 102055Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Far Northeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should quickly develop this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will likely increase through the evening with any supercells that can remain along and south of a surface boundary draped across southeast Iowa into north-central Illinois and northwest Indiana. A couple of strong to intense tornadoes appear possible. Scattered severe/damaging winds may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Burlington IA to 100 miles east northeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more