Storm Prediction Center

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0031 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 31 TORNADO TX 102010Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will quickly develop this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for very large to possibly giant hail initially (up to 3-4 inches in diameter). The threat for a few tornadoes will increase this evening with any persistent supercells, and a strong tornado appears possible. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds up to 70-80 mph should also occur as thunderstorms eventually grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Abilene TX to 15 miles east southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. ...20Z Update... The majority of the forecast remains on track and is unchanged. Modest adjustments were made to the Enhanced risk in the southern Plains. Surface heating is increasing into more of the I-35 corridor as clouds continue to gradually erode from west to east. As mid-level ascent increases into the evening, there is potential for more organized linear structures to move into central Oklahoma and North Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by observed soundings and TAMDAR data suggest severe winds would be a concern with these linear structures. Farther north and east, it appears probable that capping will lead to decreasing storm intensity. Additional details are found in the previous discussion. For additional short-term, mesoscale details see MCD 186 and 187. ..Wendt.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A weak surface low over eastern KS late this morning will translate northeastward along a front towards northern IL through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes, where surface dewpoints of at least low to mid 60s will likely be present by this evening. Large-scale ascent across this region will remain fairly nebulous, as an upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains. Still, a strengthening low-level jet across MO into IL/IN from late afternoon into this evening should promote scattered supercell development along/near the front in north-central IL. Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells. Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%) and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update. Convection should eventually grow upscale along/near the front late this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. But, the threat for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds will likely continue with eastward extent across the Midwest/OH Valley, as both sufficient instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will be present across the warm sector. ...Texas into Oklahoma... A closed mid/upper-level low over northern Mexico will move eastward across the Southwest and southern High Plains by this evening while devolving into an open wave. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft and pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will encourage robust thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along the length of a surface dryline extending southward across much of west TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with an attendant threat for supercells initially. Very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will be possible with this discrete activity, before a transition to more linear structures occurs through the evening. An increase in the severe/damaging wind threat will likely be realized as this mode transition occurs across parts of central TX into southern OK. Some threat for embedded tornadoes will also exist, especially into central TX where greater low-level moisture and shear are forecast. A separate area of severe potential may develop this afternoon/evening across parts of central into northeast TX in the low-level warm advection regime. While weakly forced, there is some chance for at least isolated supercells to develop and pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. This scenario remains uncertain, but 5% tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward to account for this conditional potential. ...Oklahoma/Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley... A dryline will be in place across western OK today, with a cold front forecast to move slowly southward across KS and parts of MO through tonight. While this area will largely remain between stronger large-scale forcing to both the north and south, it appears probable that additional thunderstorms will eventually develop this evening/tonight along/south of the front. Tornadoes and large hail appear possible with any sustained supercells, while damaging winds should occur with line segments that can develop and spread eastward through early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper wave will continue to translate eastward across the eastern CONUS through the day Thursday before moving off the Atlantic Coast by late evening. At the surface, an attendant cyclone will continue to drift north/northeast into eastern Quebec as it begins to occlude. A trailing cold front will start the forecast period draped from the Northeast into the Southeast states, and is forecast to gradually shift east through the day before moving off the East Coast and stalling across the FL peninsula as broad-scale ascent weakens. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front at the start of the period across portions of southeastern AL, western GA, and the FL Panhandle. Lingering 40-50 knot mid-level flow may support a few organized thunderstorms during the morning hours - mainly along the I-10 corridor. However, it is unclear how intense this activity will be given linear/clustered storm modes and a marginal thermodynamic environment during the diurnal buoyancy minimum. Regardless, steady weakening is anticipated through the day as convection drifts into an environment with decreasing mid-level lapse rates and diminishing forcing for ascent. Across the northern High Plains, cold mid-level temperatures associated with a clipper low may support pockets of sufficient instability for lightning production. Steep low-level lapse rates and strong flow within the lowest kilometer may support a few stronger gusts, but the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for risk probabilities at this time. ..Moore.. 03/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Forecast guidance continues to show strong north and northwest winds on Day 2/Wednesday in the wake of the cold front that will have just passed through the central Plains overnight. Forecast guidance also suggests a drier environment, with minimum RHs of 15-25%, over much of the central and southern High Plains. The latest trends also depict the cold front progressing farther south and east through Oklahoma by the afternoon. This necessitates the expansion of the Elevated area to southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado through portions of western Oklahoma. While elevated winds/RH will likely exist farther north across much of western/central Nebraska into extreme eastern Wyoming, cold daytime temperatures and preceding precipitation, some of which is likely to fall as snow, will limit the northern extent of the outlook area. Farther south near the Trans Pecos, localized elevated conditions are possible as the cold front pushes through the Big Bend area, though the pressure gradient is weaker. Less receptive fuels over northwest New Mexico will continue to be the limiting factor, although peak heating will mix strong northwest flow aloft down to the surface. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast uncertainty is high. ...Central and southern High Plains... A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of the southern Plains. Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal timing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains to southern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern Indiana Northern and Central Illinois Southern Lower Michigan * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a couple intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 03/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning. A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day as it pushes east/southeast. ...Upper OH Valley... A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells. The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley, though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture. Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent thermodynamic environment emerges. ...Lower MS Valley... One or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly flow through a deep layer will promote along-boundary storm motions and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in storm coverage is anticipated through the lower MS Valley as the primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe gusts and embedded circulations. Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for discrete, pre-line convection across eastern LA into southern and central MS as heating and modest ascent erodes weak capping within the warm sector. Kinematic profiles - characterized by 40 knots of effective bulk shear and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH - will support supercells capable of all hazards, though coverage and longevity of supercells remains uncertain given disparity between 12z CAM solutions and modest signals in calibrated guidance. ..Moore.. 03/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Northern portions of the Isolated Dry Thunder area were nudged eastward and trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest observations and forecast guidance showing less convective initiation along northwest portions of the previous Day 1/Tuesday Outlook. Expansion of the Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered farther to the southwest into the Trans Pecos as well, but showery precipitation appeared favored over extreme southwest Texas and very little if any storm coverage near the Big Bend area. Similarly, the Elevated area was also expanded slightly to the east to account for the anticipated surge of the dryline through much of the Texas Panhandle during peak heating this afternoon. Portions of the central Texas Panhandle will see stronger and drier southwest winds leading to some locally critical conditions. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a critical area being drawn. Portions of the Front Range will see locally Elevated fire weather conditions as well but the areal extent remains limited. A strong cold front will push through the central and into the southern High Plains late tonight with strong winds but higher RHs and cooler temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of 20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower RH may briefly overlap this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details become clearer. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A weak surface low over eastern KS late this morning will translate northeastward along a front towards northern IL through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes, where surface dewpoints of at least low to mid 60s will likely be present by this evening. Large-scale ascent across this region will remain fairly nebulous, as an upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains. Still, a strengthening low-level jet across MO into IL/IN from late afternoon into this evening should promote scattered supercell development along/near the front in north-central IL. Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells. Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%) and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update. Convection should eventually grow upscale along/near the front late this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. But, the threat for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds will likely continue with eastward extent across the Midwest/OH Valley, as both sufficient instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will be present across the warm sector. ...Texas into Oklahoma... A closed mid/upper-level low over northern Mexico will move eastward across the Southwest and southern High Plains by this evening while devolving into an open wave. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft and pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will encourage robust thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along the length of a surface dryline extending southward across much of west TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with an attendant threat for supercells initially. Very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will be possible with this discrete activity, before a transition to more linear structures occurs through the evening. An increase in the severe/damaging wind threat will likely be realized as this mode transition occurs across parts of central TX into southern OK. Some threat for embedded tornadoes will also exist, especially into central TX where greater low-level moisture and shear are forecast. A separate area of severe potential may develop this afternoon/evening across parts of central into northeast TX in the low-level warm advection regime. While weakly forced, there is some chance for at least isolated supercells to develop and pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. This scenario remains uncertain, but 5% tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward to account for this conditional potential. ...Oklahoma/Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley... A dryline will be in place across western OK today, with a cold front forecast to move slowly southward across KS and parts of MO through tonight. While this area will largely remain between stronger large-scale forcing to both the north and south, it appears probable that additional thunderstorms will eventually develop this evening/tonight along/south of the front. Tornadoes and large hail appear possible with any sustained supercells, while damaging winds should occur with line segments that can develop and spread eastward through early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/10/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 9 22:30:02 UTC 2026.

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-033-037-043-049-055-057-059- 071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-123- 125-127-133-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON GAC045-055-083-115-143-149-233-285-295-092340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 30 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 092100Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 30 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and northern Alabama Extreme northwest and west central Georgia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Mississippi into Alabama through late evening, and eventually reach northwest Georgia. Storm mode will be complicated with a mix of clusters and some embedded supercells with attendant threats of occasional wind damage, large hail, and a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 45 miles east northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LLQ TO 10 E GLH TO 5 NW GWO TO 30 SSW UOX TO 5 SSW UOX TO 40 NNE TUP TO 30 NNW MSL. ..JEWELL..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-092340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC001-007-013-015-017-019-021-025-029-037-043-049-051-053-055- 057-063-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-099-103-105-115- 117-121-123-125-127-133-141-145-149-151-155-159-161-163- 092340- MS Read more

WW 29 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TN 091755Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Arkansas Extreme northeast Louisiana Northern Mississippi Southern part of western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Arkansas into Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with an expected increase in the threat for wind damage and large hail through the afternoon. Additional, more isolated storm development is expected across the Ark-La-Miss, where a couple of supercells will be possible. Storm interactions across the watch area could support an isolated tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north of Greenville MS to 35 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast. On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30 mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities were combined and also extended further north just barely into southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not expected to reach critical thresholds. On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly less mixing. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia. ...20Z Update... Two changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change is to trim southeast Oklahoma mostly out of thunder, and completely out of the hail and wind probabilities. The second change is to add thunder across parts of South Carolina and Georgia. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening... A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia. ...20Z Update... Two changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change is to trim southeast Oklahoma mostly out of thunder, and completely out of the hail and wind probabilities. The second change is to add thunder across parts of South Carolina and Georgia. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening... A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph. Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LLQ TO 15 WSW LLQ TO 15 NNE LLQ TO 45 N GLH. WW 28 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 092000Z. ..CHALMERS..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-092000- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LLQ TO 15 WSW LLQ TO 15 NNE LLQ TO 45 N GLH. WW 28 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 092000Z. ..CHALMERS..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-092000- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026 Read more