Storm Prediction Center

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-013-019-021-025-029-055-057-089-091-123-127-131-149-163- 175-177-187-209-239-249-255-259-273-283-285-297-311-321-323-325- 355-391-409-463-469-479-481-493-507-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR CALDWELL CALHOUN COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS JACKSON JIM WELLS KARNES KENDALL KLEBERG LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK MEDINA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA GMZ231-232-236-237-330-080040- CW Read more

WW 27 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 072150Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storm will continue to increase and intensify across the region through late afternoon and early evening, with the environment being favorable for storms capable of large hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Cotulla TX to 45 miles east northeast of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 24...WW 25...WW 26... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week. This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive minimal rainfall into next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week. This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive minimal rainfall into next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CRW TO 30 SSW HLG TO 15 WNW PIT TO 20 SSW JHW TO 30 N BFD. ..KERR..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BUF...ILN...CLE...RLX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-072240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS OHC167-072240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC003-005-007-019-021-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-083- 105-111-123-125-129-072240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD ELK Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MSL TO 40 S BNA TO 30 ESE BNA TO 50 NNW CSV. ..KERR..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC169-171-072240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE METCALFE MONROE TNC003-055-117-159-072240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD GILES MARSHALL SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MSL TO 40 S BNA TO 30 ESE BNA TO 50 NNW CSV. ..KERR..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC169-171-072240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE METCALFE MONROE TNC003-055-117-159-072240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD GILES MARSHALL SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley. ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains. Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing. The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more information. From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/ ...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York... A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front, continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through mid-afternoon. As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft (45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less unstable airmass. ...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing air mass regionally. Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio Grande. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley. ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains. Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing. The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more information. From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/ ...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York... A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front, continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through mid-afternoon. As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft (45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less unstable airmass. ...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing air mass regionally. Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio Grande. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...Southern High Plains... Critical highlights have been added to portions of northeastern New Mexico, into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles vicinity. Here, downslope flow will be strongest, with the latest guidance consensus depicting 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the mid- to late-afternoon time frame. Otherwise, the previous forecast in this area remains on track. ...Northern High Plains... The latest guidance consensus depicts surface trough intensification across the northern Plains around afternoon peak heating, with 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds appearing more likely. These winds will coincide with 20-25 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights given fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow off the higher terrain. ...Southern High Plains... Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions. ...Northern High Plains... As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along the International border will support some increase west/northwest winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with receptive fuels. ...Southern California Coast... An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18 UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley... To the south of the primary belt of midlevel westerlies extending across the northern CONUS, a low-amplitude impulse and accompanying speed max will overspread the lower MS Valley during the afternoon. Here, steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints). This should yield weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by the afternoon. Given the low-amplitude nature of the midlevel wave and lack of any substantial low-level fronts, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. However, around 50 kt of deep-layer shear and sufficient surface-based buoyancy will favor organized storms to include the potential for supercells. The primary concern with any stronger storms that can develop will be large hail and damaging gusts, though some tornado risk is also possible. A corridor of greater severe potential is possible (depending on the degree of diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent), though confidence for an upgrade is too low at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2026 Read more

WW 0023 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLU TO 30 NW GWO TO 30 S UOX TO 25 NNW MSL. ..HALBERT..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-072140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT MSC013-017-057-081-095-115-117-133-141-145-151-072140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS SUNFLOWER TISHOMINGO UNION WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwest into north TX...central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070644Z - 070845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will increase in coverage overnight. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity from northwest TX into south-central OK, along a weak cold front/surface trough. A sharper cold front is moving southeastward across the region, with convection ongoing from central into northeast OK along and immediately behind this front. The stronger front will eventually overtake the weaker boundary overnight, with a continued increase in storm development along and behind this front. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support potential for organized storms, though convective mode may become complex due to the eventual undercutting nature of the cold front. Initial semi-discrete storms could pose a threat of large hail, given the favorable buoyancy and generally steep midlevel lapse rates. As loosely organized upscale growth occurs, some increase in severe-gust potential will be possible, especially with any bowing segments that remain rooted near the surface. A tornado also cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells immediately ahead of the primary front, given the presence of sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs. While some uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and magnitude of the overnight severe threat, watch issuance is possible due to the potential for an increasing coverage of storms within a favorable environment. ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32949750 32499792 31709918 30860096 30800214 31300216 32010154 33499966 34089911 34839821 35519735 35989642 35789608 35359622 34469656 33619711 32949750 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OJC TO 35 SSE CDJ TO 35 NE IRK TO 35 ENE MLI. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC057-111-070840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC041-045-089-121-175-070840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARITON CLARK HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 19 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 070215Z - 071000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Extreme Northwest Illinois East-Central Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 815 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this evening across parts of Iowa and Missouri. These storms are forming in a strongly sheared environment that could support the development of a few supercells capable of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Cedar Rapids IA to 45 miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from northeast Texas into Mississippi. ...ArkLaTex to Mississippi... An upper low over northwest Mexico will begin to migrate east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico on Monday. Ahead of this feature, a subtle upper shortwave impulse will move from the southern Plains to the Southeast. This will allow enhanced west/southwesterly flow to overspread a moistening boundary layer across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle. However, forecast guidance suggests sufficiently steep lapse rates will be present to support at least modest destabilization. Favorable deep shear also should support organized updrafts if enough destabilization occurs within the warm advection regime. Given modest forcing mechanisms, storm coverage is uncertain. However, the overall environment should be at least conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms through Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the ArkLaTex into MS. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow off the higher terrain. ...Southern High Plains... Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions. ...Northern High Plains... As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along the International border will support some increase west/northwest winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with receptive fuels. ...Southern California Coast... An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18 UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread. ..Moore.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies, though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the northern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains... A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours per MRMS estimates. ...Southern California Coast... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times) today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain unsupportive of fire spread. ..Moore.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC013-083-119-133-157-163-070740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN JERSEY MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR MOC007-019-027-055-071-073-099-113-139-151-163-183-186-187-189- 219-221-510-070740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ST. LOUIS CITY Read more

WW 21 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 070425Z - 071200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Illinois East-Central Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1025 PM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Squall line is slowly maturing across central Missouri. Damaging winds may become more common with this line of storms as it surges across east-central Missouri early this morning. A tornado or two can not be ruled out, though damaging winds are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Scott Afb IL to 60 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Darrow Read more