Storm Prediction Center

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-070740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-035-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-115-121- 127-135-145-070740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AR OK 070355Z - 071000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 955 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will persist overnight across the watch area, in a favorable sheared environment. This might pose a risk of a supercell or two capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Fayetteville AR to 65 miles south of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PNC TO 20 NNE BVO TO 40 SSW OJC. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-099-133-070740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE NEOSHO MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-065-067-077-083-085- 097-101-105-107-109-119-125-131-141-145-159-161-167-169-185-195- 209-213-215-217-225-229-070740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES MILLER MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS PHELPS Read more

WW 18 TORNADO KS MO 062345Z - 070700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 18 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms over northeast Oklahoma will build northeastward into the watch through the evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Joplin MO to 90 miles north northwest of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 17... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. ...Carolinas into southeast VA... An upper shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and across the Northeast by Sunday evening. Another weaker shortwave impulse will move across the TN Valley during the afternoon before emerging over VA/NC by early Monday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern extent of a warm sector across southeast VA into NC/SC. Modest surface troughing is forecast across the Piedmont, but low-level convergence is expected to remain weak. A surface front will not move much through afternoon, but with time will begin to develop south/southeast across the region during the evening. Modest midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoint in the 60s will foster weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon into evening ahead of the surface boundary. While low-level flow will remain weak, southwesterly flow aloft will increase rapidly, leading to around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes (somewhat higher across southeast VA/far northeast NC). A couple of organized cells could develop and pose a risk for locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north across VA and into western NY and PA during the day. Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the greatest relative severe potential there. ...OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV... Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor wind damage. ...TX into the Lower MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided by modest southwest winds in the lower few km. ..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026 Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUT TO 25 WSW MHK TO 25 NNE MHK TO 5 SSW BIE TO 30 WSW OMA TO 25 SSW FOD TO 40 SW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157 ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...ICT...TOP...GID...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-015-029-039-049-053-071-073-077-121-129-137-145-153- 155-159-169-173-175-181-070340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS BOONE CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD STORY TAYLOR UNION WARREN KSC003-005-013-017-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-127- 131-139-149-177-197-070340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa. ...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes... Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning. Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these areas. A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...Southern Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more likely to its east potentially related to differential heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture. Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 03/06/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 6 16:32:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 6 16:32:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS... The eastern extent of the Elevated/Critical areas were expanded slightly across western Oklahoma and west/central Texas. This was to accommodate an eastward shift of the dryline shown with the latest forecast guidance, which has a good handle on its current placement and orientation as of this morning. Small portions of the eastern Critical area were also excluded to account for recent isolated rainfall over portions of the Texas Panhandle. The latest model guidance is, so far, in agreement with the position of the previously mentioned cold front constraining the northern periphery of the Elevated/Critical areas today. Satellite imagery and surface observations did show areas of stratus and fog in the vicinity of the expanded area. However, as of daybreak, those conditions were already beginning to retreat eastward. Additionally, clear skies, low surface RHs near 15-25%, and southwesterly winds gusting in excess of 25 mph are being observed over portions of southeast New Mexico. Thus, conditions within western portions of the Critical area are already beginning to take shape. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period. ...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds (sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45 mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in. Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening, while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold front attendant to the primary surface low will surge east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will also extend southward from the secondary surface low across western/central OK into TX by late afternoon. ...Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes... Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in place. Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts, including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these areas. A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the period. Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern Plains/Ozarks with this update. ..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 4 03:19:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0129 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into southern and central New England Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 032352Z - 040545Z SUMMARY...An area of freezing rain, with some snow on the northern edge, will continue for the next 4-6 hours. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is ongoing across portions of eastern New York into southern and central New England this afternoon amidst broad isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb layer. Area VWPs have sampled increasing 1-3 km AGL flow over the past few hours to 40-50 knots. Aided by ascent within the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, this is supporting ongoing freezing rain, with rates occasionally exceeding 0.06" per 3 hours. Forecast soundings indicate the 850 mb warm nose will expand farther north this evening amidst the low-level warm air advection regime. With surface temperatures forecast to remain below freezing (upper 20s to lower 30s), expectation is for freezing rain to persist for the next 4-6 hours with a gradual northward expansion. The greatest potential for heavier rates is anticipated along a corridor from far eastern New York across western Massachusetts and into far southern New Hampshire where the strongest ascent is forecast to overlap favorable thermodynamic profiles to support the heaviest precipitation rates. Farther to the north, maximum column temperatures are likely to remain below freezing and are expected to support snow as the primary precipitation type. Veering low-level winds and drier mid-level air will then accompany a cold frontal passage later tonight, bringing an end to precipitation by 8-10 UTC (3-5 AM EST). ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41897071 41637094 41387151 41317225 41277299 41237350 41357412 41527440 42177445 42557418 42907344 43167266 43417190 43617116 43547064 43347049 43127046 42807061 42427065 42007066 41897071 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. ...01z Update - Southern Plain to Western IL... Only minor changes were made to the Level 1 - Marginal risk across Oklahoma. For much of the day, hi-res CAMs guidance has been somewhat bifurcated with respect to location of stronger storm development. Most guidance focuses elevated thunderstorms with hail potential after 06z from the northeast TX Panhandle into northern OK/southern KS in a warm advection regime to the north of a surface cold front. However, the RRFS and some MPAS members also indicated another corridor of storm development further south from southwest OK through central OK closer to the surface boundary. The risk area has been nudged south a small amount to account for trends in guidance and the location of the surface boundary as of 0030z. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and overall expectations unchanged from prior outlooks, with overnight thunderstorms expected to pose mainly a hail risk from the OK vicinity northeast into west-central/southwest IL. ..Leitman.. 03/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southern Plains and Ozarks... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support convective initiation along the front during the mid to late afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to organize along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith, Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail, especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a low-level jet strengthens. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep, generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/03/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 3 07:04:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0127 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...WESTERN/NORTHERN MD...EASTERN WV...NORTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...western/northern MD...eastern WV...northern VA Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 030536Z - 031130Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop and spread east-northeastward overnight. DISCUSSION...A large area of light precipitation is ongoing late this evening across parts of OH/WV/VA. A veering low-level wind profile and strengthening flow in the lowest 2 km AGL (as observed in the KRLX VWP) are indicative of a low-level warm-advection regime that will sustain this area of precipitation as it spreads east-northeastward into the overnight. Precipitation will eventually spread into parts of western/central PA/MD, eastern WV, and northern VA that are currently below freezing, resulting in an increasing coverage of winter precipitation. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset of precipitation, especially where colder antecedent temperatures (20s F) are in place across parts of PA and northern MD. Otherwise, an increasingly prominent warm nose in the 900-800 mb layer should allow for development of freezing rain into the overnight hours as precipitation spreads east-northeastward. Precipitation should generally remain rather light, though liquid-equivalent rates approaching 0.05 inches per 3 hours will support ice-accretion potential, especially in terrain-favored areas where colder temperatures and locally greater rates may persist. Southern and western portions of the MCD area may eventually warm above freezing overnight, but near/sub-freezing surface temperatures are expected to persist through dawn from central PA into northern VA/MD. ..Dean.. 03/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 39177680 38547781 38187902 38007983 38168033 38418004 38807975 39227943 40507923 40747966 40868004 41118040 41348037 41678004 41747966 41577849 40377692 39837658 39507660 39177680 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today. At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains this afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon. Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours, with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds accompanying the frontal passage. ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri. ...Southern Plains/Central MO... Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the overnight hours. Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However, forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based. Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms may generate severe hail. ..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026 Read more