Storm Prediction Center

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 2 21:09:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 2 21:09:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of an upper trough. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO WESTERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West. ...Central TX to western AR... Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK. Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough. Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe threat. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and will help define the northern extent of any surface-based destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough. Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO WESTERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West. ...Central TX to western AR... Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK. Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough. Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe threat. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and will help define the northern extent of any surface-based destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough. Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A small portion of the Elevated area stretching from southeast Colorado into far western Oklahoma was removed. Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that the warm front will not lift as far to the northeast today before sliding back to the southwest as a cold front tomorrow. HREF/REFS probabilities of forecast elevated winds/RH were less than 15% in the removed portion of the Elevated area. High clouds will be a mitigating factor tomorrow over the southern High Plains and Rockies. The aforementioned cold front sliding southwest through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and northeast New Mexico during the evening and subsequent precipitation across portions of these areas will limit the duration of elevated to locally critical conditions as well. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks. Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A small portion of the Elevated area stretching from southeast Colorado into far western Oklahoma was removed. Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that the warm front will not lift as far to the northeast today before sliding back to the southwest as a cold front tomorrow. HREF/REFS probabilities of forecast elevated winds/RH were less than 15% in the removed portion of the Elevated area. High clouds will be a mitigating factor tomorrow over the southern High Plains and Rockies. The aforementioned cold front sliding southwest through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and northeast New Mexico during the evening and subsequent precipitation across portions of these areas will limit the duration of elevated to locally critical conditions as well. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks. Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon. ...Northwest TX to eastern KS... Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon. ...Northwest TX to eastern KS... Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon. ...Northwest TX to eastern KS... Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today. ..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today. ..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Minimal changes were made to the outlook based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging over the Southwest is forecast to break down and move eastward ahead of a mid-level trough moving from central CA into the western Great Basin. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies in response. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds and warm temperatures are expected to support elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon from eastern NM into parts of CO. ...Eastern NM and central/southern CO... Ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, downslope winds are expected across parts of the southern Rockies and immediate foothills. The backdoor cold front across the High Plains will modify quickly as lee troughing intensifies in response to the strengthening flow aloft. This will support downslope winds of 15-20 mph through the afternoon. This, along with warm temperatures, should support afternoon RH values as low as 15%. Overlapped with abundant fine fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar dry and breezy conditions are expected farther west near the Four Corners, beneath the upper trough this afternoon. However, fuels here are much less receptive than farther east. While some localized fire-weather conditions are possible, limited fuels should negate more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Minimal changes were made to the outlook based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging over the Southwest is forecast to break down and move eastward ahead of a mid-level trough moving from central CA into the western Great Basin. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies in response. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds and warm temperatures are expected to support elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon from eastern NM into parts of CO. ...Eastern NM and central/southern CO... Ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, downslope winds are expected across parts of the southern Rockies and immediate foothills. The backdoor cold front across the High Plains will modify quickly as lee troughing intensifies in response to the strengthening flow aloft. This will support downslope winds of 15-20 mph through the afternoon. This, along with warm temperatures, should support afternoon RH values as low as 15%. Overlapped with abundant fine fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar dry and breezy conditions are expected farther west near the Four Corners, beneath the upper trough this afternoon. However, fuels here are much less receptive than farther east. While some localized fire-weather conditions are possible, limited fuels should negate more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0126 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN INDIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...central and southern Ohio...and northern Kentucky. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 021129Z - 021400Z SUMMARY...Moderate snow and light to moderate freezing rain/sleet will continue this morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate isentropic ascent ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave trough has resulted in a broad region of light to moderate precipitation within the Ohio Valley. On the northern extent of this precipitation shield, some frontogenetical banding (centered around 700mb) has resulted in moderate snow across portions of eastern Indiana into central Ohio. South of this snow band, warmer temperatures aloft have resulted in a combination of sleet and freezing rain. The wet-bulb zero line is centered near I-64 this morning and will likely delineate the area to the south with mostly rain and the area to the north which could see some ice accretion (up to 0.05 inches per hour) for a few hours this morning. This combination of moderate snow across central Ohio and mixed precipitation across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky will continue through mid morning, before temperatures warm above freezing and it changes to all rain across most of the region by late morning. ..Bentley.. 03/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40388538 40288374 40018241 39478148 39038180 38368254 38228376 38228476 38318556 38478609 38708643 39228657 39768640 40388538 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Although low-level moisture will remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough should encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across these areas today and tonight. Instability is expected to remain too limited to support an organized severe threat, although occasional gusty winds may occur. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly tonight into early Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity, aided mainly by increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the development of weak MUCAPE. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Although low-level moisture will remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough should encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across these areas today and tonight. Instability is expected to remain too limited to support an organized severe threat, although occasional gusty winds may occur. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly tonight into early Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity, aided mainly by increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the development of weak MUCAPE. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/02/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks. The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks. The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. ...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass, pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet strengthens. ...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/02/2026 Read more