SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.
...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet
strengthens.
...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.
...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet
strengthens.
...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners
will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee
low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will
bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With
increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline,
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over
the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK.
Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support
enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to
reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm
temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with
areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours
of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon.
Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH
falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for
a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of
sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected
to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While
confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks.
Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a
cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases.
..Lyons.. 03/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners
will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee
low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will
bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With
increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline,
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over
the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK.
Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support
enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to
reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm
temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with
areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours
of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon.
Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH
falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for
a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of
sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected
to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While
confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks.
Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a
cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases.
..Lyons.. 03/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging over the Southwest is forecast to break down
and move eastward ahead of a mid-level trough moving from central CA
into the western Great Basin. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to
increase over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies in
response. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures are expected to support
elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon from eastern NM into
parts of CO.
...Eastern NM and central/southern CO...
Ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, downslope winds are
expected across parts of the southern Rockies and immediate
foothills. The backdoor cold front across the High Plains will
modify quickly as lee troughing intensifies in response to the
strengthening flow aloft. This will support downslope winds of 15-20
mph through the afternoon. This, along with warm temperatures,
should support afternoon RH values as low as 15%. Overlapped with
abundant fine fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible.
Similar dry and breezy conditions are expected farther west near the
Four Corners, beneath the upper trough this afternoon. However,
fuels here are much less receptive than farther east. While some
localized fire-weather conditions are possible, limited fuels should
negate more widespread fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 03/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging over the Southwest is forecast to break down
and move eastward ahead of a mid-level trough moving from central CA
into the western Great Basin. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to
increase over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies in
response. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures are expected to support
elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon from eastern NM into
parts of CO.
...Eastern NM and central/southern CO...
Ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, downslope winds are
expected across parts of the southern Rockies and immediate
foothills. The backdoor cold front across the High Plains will
modify quickly as lee troughing intensifies in response to the
strengthening flow aloft. This will support downslope winds of 15-20
mph through the afternoon. This, along with warm temperatures,
should support afternoon RH values as low as 15%. Overlapped with
abundant fine fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible.
Similar dry and breezy conditions are expected farther west near the
Four Corners, beneath the upper trough this afternoon. However,
fuels here are much less receptive than farther east. While some
localized fire-weather conditions are possible, limited fuels should
negate more widespread fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 03/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.
...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.
...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.
...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.
Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.
Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.
Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.
Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.
Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.
Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak midlevel short-wave trough appears to be partly responsible for
the MCS that evolved over eastern KS/MO this afternoon. This feature
will spread toward the confluence of the MS/OH River valley, and
heights are expected to rise across the southern Plains through
sunrise. LLJ will focus across the Ozarks into western KY late this
evening, and this should encourage the MCS to propagate downstream,
though it should gradually weaken.
Along the trailing cold front across OK, weak instability developed
along/south of the wind shift where temperatures warmed into the
70s. Even so, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak forcing are proving
difficult for sustaining deep convection. 00z sounding from OUN
exhibited roughly 500 J/kg MUCAPE. As the front settles south, weak
southwesterly flow atop the boundary may instigate a few
thunderstorms, but observed/forecast instability suggest any hail
that develops would likely remain below severe levels.
Isolated thunderstorms continue along the southwestern FL Gulf
coast, as easterly boundary layer flow persists across this region.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to continue weakening and severe is
not expected with this activity the remainder of this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak midlevel short-wave trough appears to be partly responsible for
the MCS that evolved over eastern KS/MO this afternoon. This feature
will spread toward the confluence of the MS/OH River valley, and
heights are expected to rise across the southern Plains through
sunrise. LLJ will focus across the Ozarks into western KY late this
evening, and this should encourage the MCS to propagate downstream,
though it should gradually weaken.
Along the trailing cold front across OK, weak instability developed
along/south of the wind shift where temperatures warmed into the
70s. Even so, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak forcing are proving
difficult for sustaining deep convection. 00z sounding from OUN
exhibited roughly 500 J/kg MUCAPE. As the front settles south, weak
southwesterly flow atop the boundary may instigate a few
thunderstorms, but observed/forecast instability suggest any hail
that develops would likely remain below severe levels.
Isolated thunderstorms continue along the southwestern FL Gulf
coast, as easterly boundary layer flow persists across this region.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to continue weakening and severe is
not expected with this activity the remainder of this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak midlevel short-wave trough appears to be partly responsible for
the MCS that evolved over eastern KS/MO this afternoon. This feature
will spread toward the confluence of the MS/OH River valley, and
heights are expected to rise across the southern Plains through
sunrise. LLJ will focus across the Ozarks into western KY late this
evening, and this should encourage the MCS to propagate downstream,
though it should gradually weaken.
Along the trailing cold front across OK, weak instability developed
along/south of the wind shift where temperatures warmed into the
70s. Even so, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak forcing are proving
difficult for sustaining deep convection. 00z sounding from OUN
exhibited roughly 500 J/kg MUCAPE. As the front settles south, weak
southwesterly flow atop the boundary may instigate a few
thunderstorms, but observed/forecast instability suggest any hail
that develops would likely remain below severe levels.
Isolated thunderstorms continue along the southwestern FL Gulf
coast, as easterly boundary layer flow persists across this region.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to continue weakening and severe is
not expected with this activity the remainder of this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/02/2026
Read more
MD 0125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and south-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012131Z - 012330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk will increase through late
afternoon/evening. A couple of storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds across central/south-central Oklahoma in the 5 PM - 10
PM time period.
DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has been expanding across the central
OK vicinity the past couple of hours. Warm, moist advection in the
low and midlevels has allowed surface dewpoints to increase into the
57-60 F range between the I-44 and I-35 corridors south of the OKC
Metro, with more modest boundary layer moisture noted with northeast
extent. Substantial midlevel moistening between the 850-700 mb layer
was noted between 1730z-1830z in midday ACARS/TAMDAR data from OKC.
Furthermore, a 21z sounding from OUN showed only weak capping with
MUCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg amid midlevel lapse rates near 7.5
C/km.
As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 22-00z
time frame near a surface low and cold front oriented from the OKC
area southwestward along the I-44 corridor. The strongest storms may
produce large hail in the 1.5-2.0 inch range, and gusty winds of
45-60 mph. It remains uncertain how many storms may develop, and the
corridor for severe-caliber hail may remain fairly narrow in space
and time. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance in the next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Smith.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35089605 34829632 34459680 34299723 34179786 34219840
34269869 34439882 34599881 34729874 34979849 35279813
35509773 35629736 35649686 35599659 35489625 35309604
35089605
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An approaching mid-level trough and surface low evolution across the
Southern Plains should enhance the fire weather threat across
eastern NM and far west TX on D3/Tuesday. A progressive wave pattern
should remain intact through midweek, with extended model guidance
bringing in another mid-level trough into the Southwest by
D5/Thursday. Subsequent lee surface troughing in the Central Plains
on D5/Thursday will heighten fire weather concerns, promoting dry,
downslope flow across the Southern High Plains. Farther east,
prominent south-southwesterly flow should keep deeper boundary layer
moisture in place across the Southeast and Florida, limiting RH
reductions and leaving a mitigated fire weather environment in place
through the weekend.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft accelerates over the Southern Plains as a
mid-level jet ahead of the parent trough over the Southwest enters
to the region. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO
should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM,
West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. A dry and well mixed
boundary west of the deeper Gulf moisture plume should support
critically low RH by the afternoon. Receptive fuels combined with
dry and breezy conditions support maintenance of at least 40%
critical probabilities for this region.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
A similar synoptic setup as D3/Tuesday is expected to evolve by
D5/Thursday across the Southern Plains. Another, but more amplified
mid-level wave reaches the Southwest by Tuesday as surface
cyclogenesis consolidates in the Central Plains. An expansive swath
of stronger southwest winds and low relative humidity will align
with abundant dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to
portions of the central/southern Plains. Sporadic showers associated
with a southward progressing cold front on D4/Wednesday are expected
across the OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO and western KS, but
widespread rainfall is not likely, keeping a dry fuelscape largely
intact into Thursday. A 40% critical probability was added to
portions of the southern/central Plains owing to higher confidence
in the model guidance consensus.
...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains...
Enhanced downslope flow from the southwest could linger into
D6/Friday under an exiting mid-level jet max across the Southern
Plains. Likely cooler temperatures along with uncertainties in
timing of the next cold front limits the overall fire weather threat
predictability for D6/Friday, with critical probabilities withheld
at this time.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An approaching mid-level trough and surface low evolution across the
Southern Plains should enhance the fire weather threat across
eastern NM and far west TX on D3/Tuesday. A progressive wave pattern
should remain intact through midweek, with extended model guidance
bringing in another mid-level trough into the Southwest by
D5/Thursday. Subsequent lee surface troughing in the Central Plains
on D5/Thursday will heighten fire weather concerns, promoting dry,
downslope flow across the Southern High Plains. Farther east,
prominent south-southwesterly flow should keep deeper boundary layer
moisture in place across the Southeast and Florida, limiting RH
reductions and leaving a mitigated fire weather environment in place
through the weekend.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft accelerates over the Southern Plains as a
mid-level jet ahead of the parent trough over the Southwest enters
to the region. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO
should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM,
West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. A dry and well mixed
boundary west of the deeper Gulf moisture plume should support
critically low RH by the afternoon. Receptive fuels combined with
dry and breezy conditions support maintenance of at least 40%
critical probabilities for this region.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
A similar synoptic setup as D3/Tuesday is expected to evolve by
D5/Thursday across the Southern Plains. Another, but more amplified
mid-level wave reaches the Southwest by Tuesday as surface
cyclogenesis consolidates in the Central Plains. An expansive swath
of stronger southwest winds and low relative humidity will align
with abundant dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to
portions of the central/southern Plains. Sporadic showers associated
with a southward progressing cold front on D4/Wednesday are expected
across the OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO and western KS, but
widespread rainfall is not likely, keeping a dry fuelscape largely
intact into Thursday. A 40% critical probability was added to
portions of the southern/central Plains owing to higher confidence
in the model guidance consensus.
...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains...
Enhanced downslope flow from the southwest could linger into
D6/Friday under an exiting mid-level jet max across the Southern
Plains. Likely cooler temperatures along with uncertainties in
timing of the next cold front limits the overall fire weather threat
predictability for D6/Friday, with critical probabilities withheld
at this time.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
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