SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in
south Florida.
...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin
ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the
mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance
northward through the day in response to lee
cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return
into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should
help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A
southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and
into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in
tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough.
Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances
for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS
between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings
from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and
strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized
thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind,
threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat
low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and
drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal
along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate
buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in
extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in
south Florida.
...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin
ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the
mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance
northward through the day in response to lee
cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return
into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should
help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A
southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and
into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in
tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough.
Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances
for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS
between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings
from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and
strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized
thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind,
threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat
low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and
drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal
along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate
buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in
extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Elevated Fire Weather Highlights were introduced into portions of
the High Plains of central/southern CO and eastern NM for Monday. A
backdoor cold front will usher in a cooler, but shallow moist
near-surface layer into much of the High Plains through tonight into
D2/Monday. Lee surface trough development in response to increasing
westerly flow aloft is expected ahead of the mid-level trough
entering the Southwest. This will support downslope drying and
breezy west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) within a
narrow corridor along and east of the Southern Rockies, into
south-central NM. Eastward mixing of the dry line and subsequent
evolution of a deep, dry boundary layer should promote afternoon RH
reductions to around 15% by mid-afternoon. The combination of
stronger west-southwest winds, low RH and abundant dry fuels will
boost fire weather concerns for Monday.
...Lower Colorado River Basin and Four Corners....
Although a broad region of dry and breezy conditions will develop
across the Lower CO River Basin and Four Corners ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough, fuel receptiveness remains limited,
which should mitigate broader fire weather impacts along and west of
the Continental Divide.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Monday.
...Northern NM and far southern CO...
Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Elevated Fire Weather Highlights were introduced into portions of
the High Plains of central/southern CO and eastern NM for Monday. A
backdoor cold front will usher in a cooler, but shallow moist
near-surface layer into much of the High Plains through tonight into
D2/Monday. Lee surface trough development in response to increasing
westerly flow aloft is expected ahead of the mid-level trough
entering the Southwest. This will support downslope drying and
breezy west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) within a
narrow corridor along and east of the Southern Rockies, into
south-central NM. Eastward mixing of the dry line and subsequent
evolution of a deep, dry boundary layer should promote afternoon RH
reductions to around 15% by mid-afternoon. The combination of
stronger west-southwest winds, low RH and abundant dry fuels will
boost fire weather concerns for Monday.
...Lower Colorado River Basin and Four Corners....
Although a broad region of dry and breezy conditions will develop
across the Lower CO River Basin and Four Corners ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough, fuel receptiveness remains limited,
which should mitigate broader fire weather impacts along and west of
the Continental Divide.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Monday.
...Northern NM and far southern CO...
Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Areas affected...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011739Z - 011945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are possible primarily near and along the
South Florida coast this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds and
marginally severe hail are the expected hazards. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase near the South Florida
coast this afternoon as temperature are reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s F. Localized convergence along with modest mid-level ascent
appears to be the largest contributors to this activity. With time,
a more well-developed sea breeze will likely move inland and promote
additional development. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of
effective shear will allow a few storms to organize and potentially
produce isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail.
Convection over the Gulf Stream has produce outflow that is
approaching the eastern Peninsula coast. This could impact the
duration of the most intense activity, though a brief uptick in wind
gust potential is also possible as this boundary interacts with
ongoing storms.
..Wendt/Smith.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25208029 25198059 25238072 25538078 26528043 26748020
26608009 25818010 25208029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.
...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for
isolated/sustained convection is apparent.
...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.
...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for
isolated/sustained convection is apparent.
...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.
...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for
isolated/sustained convection is apparent.
...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.
...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for
isolated/sustained convection is apparent.
...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026
Read more
