SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern
FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near
the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted
better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z
sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest
radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.
Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,
especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few
hours.
00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep
boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is
mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only
has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it
appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this
evening.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough
approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects
into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may
accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.
..Darrow.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern
FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near
the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted
better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z
sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest
radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.
Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,
especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few
hours.
00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep
boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is
mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only
has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it
appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this
evening.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough
approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects
into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may
accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.
..Darrow.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North
Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is
entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite.
This should continue to promote potential for additional
thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.
...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.
...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North
Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is
entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite.
This should continue to promote potential for additional
thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.
...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.
...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North
Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is
entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite.
This should continue to promote potential for additional
thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.
...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.
...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the
central Rockies.
...Synopsis...
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established
across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response
to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy
profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse
rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support
isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward
into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should
be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry
line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at
850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the
Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the
upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.
..Moore.. 02/28/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the
central Rockies.
...Synopsis...
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established
across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response
to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy
profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse
rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support
isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward
into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should
be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry
line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at
850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the
Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the
upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.
..Moore.. 02/28/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required for Sunday's fire weather forecast. Please
see the discussion below for details.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
dry and breezy conditions are possible.
...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
D2/Sunday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required for Sunday's fire weather forecast. Please
see the discussion below for details.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
dry and breezy conditions are possible.
...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
D2/Sunday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California
Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be
followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front
associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south
into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the
frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of
OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is
conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture
return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe
thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest
RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally.
However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated
guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.
Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula
where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in
place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into
northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as
instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a
fairly moist air mass.
..Moore.. 02/28/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
dry and breezy conditions are possible.
...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
D2/Sunday afternoon.
..Lyons.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over eastern Canada and the US will
gradually shift eastward today as ridging builds over the Southwest.
As the pattern shifts eastward, northwesterly flow aloft will weaken
across much of the central/northern High Plains. As high pressure
strengthens, a surface cold front will surge southward across the
central Great Plains with much cooler temperatures behind it.
...Southeast WY into northern CO and western NE...
Lingering dry downslope flow is expected across parts of the central
High Pains from southern WY into northern CO today. Northwest flow
aloft is forecast to gradually weaken as western US ridging
gradually amplifies and shifts eastward. While upper air support
should slacken through the day, a fairly strong east-west pressure
gradient should still maintain west/northwesterly low-level flow of
20-25 mph across the south Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and
northern CO. With unusually warm temperatures and continued
downslope flow, RH values of 15-25% and a few hours of locally
stronger wind gusts are expected. Recent model guidance has shown an
increase in both wind speed and duration through the first half of
the day. Given very dry fuels, the meteorological conditions should
support a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns into this
afternoon. Fire-weather conditions should end overnight into early
D2/Sunday as the aforementioned cold front moves in overnight.
...Southwest FL...
Ahead of the eastern portions of the cold front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected across parts of FL. Ongoing drought and
recent fire activity indicate receptive fuels over southwestern
parts of the Peninsula. While some rain is expected, areas that do
not receive significant precipitation may allow for some ignitions
given the potential for lightning.
..Lyons.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.
...DISCUSSION...
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on
Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a
quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central
Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into
the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from
southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday
night.
..Broyles.. 02/28/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon
and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.
...FL Peninsula...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula
this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will
encourage a surface front to settle south across the central
Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for
convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across
the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust
convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures
will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt
expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft
organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along
with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and
the primary concern will be between 18-00z.
...Elsewhere...
A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is
expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that
will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the
evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak
buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with
this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.
Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a
short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z.
High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated
thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent
and moistening profiles spread into this region.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026
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