Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells. On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible. On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells. On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible. On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells. On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible. On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells. On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible. On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...Northern NM and far southern CO... Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...Northern NM and far southern CO... Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...Northern NM and far southern CO... Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX. Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit fire-weather potential. ...Eastern NM and west TX... Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX. Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit fire-weather potential. ...Eastern NM and west TX... Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX. Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit fire-weather potential. ...Eastern NM and west TX... Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into northern Missouri. Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into northern Missouri. Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into northern Missouri. Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026 Read more