SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.
...DISCUSSION...
A subtle mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Florida Peninsula on Sunday, as a diffuse cold front stalls in
south-central Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front
in the afternoon. Further west into the southern and central Plains,
thunderstorms will be possible as surface temperatures warm during
the day near and to the north of a front from parts of Oklahoma
northward into Kansas and southwest Missouri. Finally, isolated
diurnal storms will also be possible on Sunday in parts of northern
California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S.
Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.
...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.
...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.
...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon.
...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.
...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon.
...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.
...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.
...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.
...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.
...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently forecast.
...Southeast/Florida...
Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast
across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf
states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by
early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection
will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of
the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to
warrant much risk of severe.
As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will
establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should
serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more
concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest
modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and
forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel
lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At
this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast
should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently forecast.
...Southeast/Florida...
Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast
across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf
states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by
early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection
will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of
the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to
warrant much risk of severe.
As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will
establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should
serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more
concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest
modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and
forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel
lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At
this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast
should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will
take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest
shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West.
Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it
remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the
period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern
extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3.
Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low
confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture
recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the
upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from
northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the
shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit
the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble
guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an
amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the
timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains
remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains
early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a
northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this
trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of
the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach
the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more
variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second
trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough,
with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave
troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These
discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and
magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing
low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated
cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat
should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the
specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent
of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of
the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the
details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any
specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and
Thursday at this time.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
early Sunday morning.
... Discussion ...
A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad
troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the
persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west,
moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern
Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the
coast.
At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida
peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern
Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma.
Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central
Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the
upper Midwest.
... Florida Peninsula ...
A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida
peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least
isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface
temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE
between 1000-1500 J/kg.
While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to
the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting
factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level
convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm
development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence
across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would
further limit convective development.
... Northern California and Southern Oregon ...
Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited,
it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening
troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and
non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.
... Southern Plains ...
Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established
Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the
Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints
perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic
front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated
thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection
regime.
Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would
support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally
severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the
quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will
defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks.
However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated
instability may develop to support the introduction of hail
probabilities at a later time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION
...Synopsis...
...Portions of South-Central Texas...
A weak, dry cold front will bring RH values of 10-20% to portions of
south-central Texas this afternoon as a modest surface low shifts
south and east across Texas. A moderately strong pressure gradient
on the western/southwestern periphery of the low will support
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas). With warm, dry antecedent conditions
yielding receptive fine fuels, this combination of winds and RH will
support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
A low pressure system pushing eastward across southern Canada today
will couple with building high pressure across portions of western
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado to yield a strengthening
cross-terrain surface pressure gradient over portions of the Central
Rockies. This setup will favor dry, northwesterly downslope winds of
15-25 mph with locally higher gusts and RH values of 10-20% atop
receptive fuels. These conditions will support Elevated fire weather
conditions from portions of northeastern New Mexico northward to
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.
...Central and Southeastern Montana...
Similar to areas farther south across the central High Plains, a
strong, cross-terrain surface pressure gradient will support at
least a few hours of strong downslope winds. However, given recent
light precipitation and forecast RH values of 20-30%, any elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local.
..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
...Portions of eastern and southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday as strong mid-level flow and a 40-kt northwesterly 700 mb jet
will support strong northwesterly downslope winds in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Guidance is in generally good agreement regarding
20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) overlapping RH values of
15-20%. Some guidance indicates even lower RH values of 10-15%
across this area, but uncertainty regarding how low RH values will
drop precludes the addition of a Critical area at this time.
...Portions of central and east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are expected to be more common from
northeastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Winds are
expected to remain generally light across this region, with the
exception being across portions of central into east-central New
Mexico where a belt of modest northwesterly mid-level flow is
expected to support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia
Manzano Mountains. Elevated highlights have been added where
sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher)
are expected to overlap RH values of 10-20% Friday afternoon.
..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
... Discussion ...
A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida
Peninsula.
Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.
... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...
Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.
Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.
... Florida Peninsula ...
South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across
portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.
...Gulf States...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging
southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with
this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the
Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches
the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will
strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle
Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken
considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is
expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic
front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model
guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that
minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast
soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface
temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF
guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving
along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the
primary concern with these storms through early evening.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, several subtle/low-amplitude perturbations will overspread
northern CA and the Intermountain West tonight. While associated
cooling aloft amid a deep saturated profile will yield weak elevated
instability, any thunder potential will remain limited/isolated.
..Weinman.. 02/25/2026
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