SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Northwestern Nebraska and far South-Central South Dakota...
Increasing westerly flow at the crest of an upper-level ridge is
expected Sunday. A corresponding lee trough forming across the
northern/central Plains will enhance surface winds across the
region. A low-level jet collocated atop the broader southwest
surface wind field in northwestern NE and far south-central SD,
along with RH reductions to 15-20% and markedly dry fuels should
yield a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across the
area Sunday afternoon where critical highlights have been added.
...Central High Plains...
Slight modifications to the existing broad region of elevated
highlights were needed owing to recent precipitation across portions
of eastern CO and western KS. Expanding upper-level cloud cover over
the High Plains adjacent to the CO Front Range could reduce boundary
layer mixing and subsequent surface wind speeds for the area,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Downslope enhanced winds
of 15-25 mph with higher gusts should emerge south of the Palmer
Divide amid afternoon RH of around 15%. However, recent observed
rainfall between 0.10-0.40" should temporarily mitigate an otherwise
critical fire weather environment across the area.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern
Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex
of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This
should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central
and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in
Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds
near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the
mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area
prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the
central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across
parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of
the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk
area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments
may be needed in this area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.
...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.
...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.
...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
Read more
MD 0074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central into north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141649Z - 141845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into the early
afternoon. Short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from
south-central into north TX, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the southern High
Plains. Outflow associated with this band of storms has shown some
acceleration this morning, which will result in eastward progression
of the ongoing storms through early afternoon. Despite the presence
of strong deep-layer shear, convection has remained relatively
disorganized thus far, due to rather weak buoyancy and the
undercutting influence of the outflow.
With time, increasing ascent associated with the approaching
shortwave trough and gradually improving buoyancy (with MLCAPE
gradually increasing through the 500-1000 J/kg range) may allow for
some strengthening and increased organization into early afternoon.
Isolated supercells and/or bowing segments could evolve with time,
posing at least a localized threat for severe hail and wind. The
undercutting outflow may continue to limit the magnitude and
coverage in the short term, and watch issuance is considered
unlikely through early afternoon.
An increase in the severe threat is still expected later in the
afternoon, as storms begin to approach east TX. Parts of
south-central TX (near the southern periphery of ongoing convection)
will continue to be monitored for isolated supercell development
within a somewhat more unstable environment.
..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29630151 31069870 32109833 33539685 33589641 33539615
33369555 32649570 30779714 29809795 29269864 29099986
29100077 29630151
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.
...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.
12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.
...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.
12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.
...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.
12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.
...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this
afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.
Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.
Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.
...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.
...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this
afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.
Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.
Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.
...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...South-Central Texas...
Current radar and satellite imagery shows a convective line
extending across the Edwards Plateau, although increasingly limited
upstream development is noted closer to the TX/Mexico border. Short
term model guidance indicates heavier rainfall remaining to the
northeast of the Rio Grande Valley in South-Central TX as the cold
front sweeps southeastward through tonight, allowing at least some
pockets of receptive fuels to persist. Drier, post-frontal flow is
still expected across South-Central TX this afternoon. RH falling to
as low as 20% will coincide with northwest winds of 15-20 mph to
promote elevated fire weather conditions near the Rio Grande in
South-Central TX.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions
of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the
Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range
with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some
uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall
fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry
fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,
elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...South-Central Texas...
Current radar and satellite imagery shows a convective line
extending across the Edwards Plateau, although increasingly limited
upstream development is noted closer to the TX/Mexico border. Short
term model guidance indicates heavier rainfall remaining to the
northeast of the Rio Grande Valley in South-Central TX as the cold
front sweeps southeastward through tonight, allowing at least some
pockets of receptive fuels to persist. Drier, post-frontal flow is
still expected across South-Central TX this afternoon. RH falling to
as low as 20% will coincide with northwest winds of 15-20 mph to
promote elevated fire weather conditions near the Rio Grande in
South-Central TX.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions
of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the
Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range
with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some
uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall
fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry
fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,
elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern
Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex
of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This
should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central
and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in
Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds
near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the
mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area
prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the
central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across
parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of
the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk
area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments
may be needed in this area.
..Supinie.. 02/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions
of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the
Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range
with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some
uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall
fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry
fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,
elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.
..Supinie.. 02/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Sunday afternoon into
early evening across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern
Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple
of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.
...Discussion...
Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, it still
appears that a prominent blocking ridge centered over the
mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification
toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the
Aleutians in mid/upper levels through this period. As
this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs
near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level
trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is
forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast. It
appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the
base of this feature will support modest renewed surface
cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain
offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through
12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and
northwest.
Downstream, it appears that flow across the Rockies into the
western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments
within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.
In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden
eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi
Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing
into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Sunday night.
Spread persists within/among the various model output concerning
this troughing. In general, guidance suggests that an embedded
mid-level cyclonic circulation and associated surface cyclone will
tend to weaken by the time it progresses offshore by late Sunday
night. However, at least some guidance, including the NAM and Rapid
Refresh, appear to maintain a stronger mid-level perturbation across
the eastern Gulf Coast states through the day Sunday.
...Eastern Gulf States...
Questions remain concerning the extent to which thermodynamic
profiles may be conducive to continuing severe weather potential, in
association with an initial line of convection which may be in the
process of spreading into Alabama and offshore of the southeastern
Louisiana coast at the outset of the period. Moist adiabatic or
more stable near surface lapse rates and weak CAPE, particularly
inland of coastal areas, still seem likely to limit the risk for
severe hail, damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes at least into
early afternoon, as activity progresses eastward.
Through mid to late afternoon, it is appearing increasingly probable
that a belt of 40-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in
the 850-700 mb layer will overspread the northern Florida/southern
Georgia vicinity. As this occurs, forecast soundings from the
latest Rapid Refresh and NAM suggest that this may be accompanied by
rapidly moistening and destabilizing thermodynamic profiles rooted
within the boundary layer, coincident with low-level hodographs
becoming rather large and clockwise curved, in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear. It appears that this environment may
contribute to a re-intensification of the convective line, with
embedded supercells and perhaps preceded by discrete supercell
development. As this activity tends to propagate eastward toward
the coast into early evening, it may be accompanied by damaging wind
gusts and a risk for tornadoes, including potential for a strong
tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.
...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley...
Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of
west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably
remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe
hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly
buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the
afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution
into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied
regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much
of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated
severe threat.
Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more
organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely
to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley
overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with
eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH
will support development of one or more organized bowing segments,
with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in
tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded
mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf
Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.
Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the
stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm
sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief
tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of
the period.
..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the
CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across
CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across
the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level
flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across
parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z.
However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the
rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable
conditions prevail.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
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