SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build across much of the central CONUS on
Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper
trough/low will develop east/southeast across CA into the Great
Basin vicinity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible beneath upper low, particularly across
portions of central CA. Thunderstorm potential should decrease
during the nighttime hours with eastward extent as thermodynamic
profiles become less favorable.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half
of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern
CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates
and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective
updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak
destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short
wave/cold front.
Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject
northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by
late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of
this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove
favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning
is expected with some of this activity.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Progressive mid-level flow will continue over the US through next
week. Strong westerly winds will continue to increase over the
Rockies and Plains through this week and into the weekend. This will
encourage westerly downslope flow and lee troughing late this week.
By this weekend a more substantial trough should emerge and deepen
over the southern US. Some potential for more active fire-weather
conditions appears possible over southern TX through this weekend.
The active toughing pattern should continue into next week.
...Southern High Plains D4/Thursday...
With zonal flow increasing over parts of the southern Rockies mid to
late week, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the southern
High Plains. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a
weak lee low D4/Thursday. South of the low, enhanced westerly
downslope flow is expected from eastern NM into west TX. Bolstered
by stronger westerly winds and deep mixing, afternoon gusts of 15-25
mph appear possible. The strong winds will likely overlap with a
warm and dry air mass with relative humidity below 20%. With little
recent rainfall in the area, the overlap of dry fuels and elevated
fire-weather conditions appear possible before a cold front moves
south into D5/Friday. A 40% area has been added for D4/Thursday.
...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas D5/Friday-D7/Sunday...
The more prominent upper trough over Baja CA and northern MEX will
translate eastward D5/Friday into the weekend. Strong ascent will
overspread the far Southern Plains into parts of South TX and the
Rio Grande. A lee low will move off the MEX High Plateau supporting
inland moisture advection over parts of south TX. Widespread
precipitation (projected QPF in the 0.5-2 inch range) is expected to
develop north of the surface low along a stalled front across
portions of central TX into OK and the mid to lower MS Valley. This
should largely limit fire-weather potential farther north.
D6/Saturday, dry and breezy surface conditions may develop behind
the departing low from the TX Big Bend to the Rio Grande Valley.
Trailing the low, a Pacific Front will move east with much drier air
mass behind it. Strong west/northwesterly flow on the backside of
the low may mix down increasing surface winds to 20 mph. This could
support the potential for fire-weather conditions
D6/Saturday. However, model spread on the potential for
precipitation, the frontal passage, and impacts to area fuels
remains too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time.
By D7/Sunday, the upper trough and Surface low will move eastward. A
temporarily cooler air mass will fill in, before southerly winds
start to build again into next week. Strong troughing over the West
should continue, spreading strong flow aloft over parts of the
Southwest and Plains. This appears likely to support a general
increase in fire-weather concerns with time through the remainder of
the extended forecast period.
..Lyons/Elizalde-Garcia.. 02/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
No changes, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
(Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
No changes, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
(Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS and building surface
high pressure east of the Rockies will limit thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday. Some lingering isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the central California coast on Wednesday morning, beneath the
upper low. However, once it moves inland, it appears
moisture/instability will be too limited for a sustained
thunderstorm threat.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS and building surface
high pressure east of the Rockies will limit thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday. Some lingering isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the central California coast on Wednesday morning, beneath the
upper low. However, once it moves inland, it appears
moisture/instability will be too limited for a sustained
thunderstorm threat.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough
developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the
western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will
move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level
shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast.
Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday
with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and
another surface low off the California coast.
As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level
temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability
and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected
with this activity.
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across
central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak
instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the
approaching mid-level shortwave trough.
Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the
Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid
weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be
sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it
should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic
profiles.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough
developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the
western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will
move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level
shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast.
Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday
with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and
another surface low off the California coast.
As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level
temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability
and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected
with this activity.
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across
central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak
instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the
approaching mid-level shortwave trough.
Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the
Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid
weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be
sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it
should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic
profiles.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...Southern High Plains...
Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this
afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong
west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some
areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An
expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern
foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low
RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels.
...Central High Plains...
Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across
eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit
deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire
weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy
conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns
today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...Southern High Plains...
Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this
afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong
west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some
areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An
expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern
foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low
RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels.
...Central High Plains...
Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across
eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit
deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire
weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy
conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns
today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S.
through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the
East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is
consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to
nil across the continental United States.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S.
through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the
East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is
consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to
nil across the continental United States.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026
Read more
