Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS will lead to surface warming/moistening. Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough accelerates and moves northeast. On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time. Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS will lead to surface warming/moistening. Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough accelerates and moves northeast. On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time. Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS will lead to surface warming/moistening. Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough accelerates and moves northeast. On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time. Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will remain shallow and keep instability limited. Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will remain shallow and keep instability limited. Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will remain shallow and keep instability limited. Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will remain shallow and keep instability limited. Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Morning Update... Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon. otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Morning Update... Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon. otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Morning Update... Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon. otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Morning Update... Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon. otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Morning Update... Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon. otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK, which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning production. Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest cores. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK, which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning production. Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest cores. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK, which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning production. Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest cores. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK, which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning production. Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest cores. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive flow regime will reside across the contiguous United States today to the north of a low-latitude, mid-level low over northwestern Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday. A plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. As a result, low-topped convection moving ashore may intermittently be capable of lightning flashes on an isolated basis near the coast. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorms will prevail across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive flow regime will reside across the contiguous United States today to the north of a low-latitude, mid-level low over northwestern Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday. A plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. As a result, low-topped convection moving ashore may intermittently be capable of lightning flashes on an isolated basis near the coast. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorms will prevail across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/08/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected. Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected. Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation. Read more