SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Discussion...
Minimal change from the previous outlook with potential for isolated
thunderstorms during the late evening to early overnight. In the
wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east across the
Northwest, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will expand
southeastward across most of coastal OR. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a surface trough encroaching on the coast by 06-08Z.
Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this trough,
especially towards the WA coast. Buoyancy should remain scant at
most, but may be adequate for a few embedded thunderstorms before
convection weakens inland.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Discussion...
Minimal change from the previous outlook with potential for isolated
thunderstorms during the late evening to early overnight. In the
wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east across the
Northwest, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will expand
southeastward across most of coastal OR. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a surface trough encroaching on the coast by 06-08Z.
Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this trough,
especially towards the WA coast. Buoyancy should remain scant at
most, but may be adequate for a few embedded thunderstorms before
convection weakens inland.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level
troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far
West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this
pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS
will lead to surface warming/moistening.
Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will
lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough
accelerates and moves northeast.
On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely
somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will
become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated
convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent.
Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time.
Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central
Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the
central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary
trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 02/08/2026
Read more
