Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight. ...Discussion... Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S. through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to nil across the continental United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight. ...Discussion... Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S. through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to nil across the continental United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low. Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low. Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low. Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm potential is expected to be minimal. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm potential is expected to be minimal. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm potential is expected to be minimal. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will support warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms. Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA, particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough spreads inland. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will support warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms. Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA, particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough spreads inland. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will support warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms. Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA, particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough spreads inland. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will support warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms. Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA, particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough spreads inland. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest, amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 02/09/2026 Read more