Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected. Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for at least a few hours. Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for at least a few hours. Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for at least a few hours. Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for at least a few hours. Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse, accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains. The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana (i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However, RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here, 15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a few weeks. Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula, where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move east from northern Mexico toward central/eastern TX on Tuesday. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow across the southern Plains toward the TN Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK will meander eastward and weaken. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will transport modest Gulf moisture north across eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Moistening thermodynamic profiles and midlevel cooling ahead of the trough will support weak elevated instability across far western TX. Isolated thunderstorms may develop northeast from northern Mexico into western TX. This activity is not expected to be severe. Overnight, warm advection will result in elevated convection ahead of a southward sagging cold front from the southern Ozarks toward the TN Valley. While west/southwesterly flow will allow for moistening in the midlevels, cooling aloft will be modest and how much destabilization may occur is uncertain. A few elevated thunderstorms could be possible late in the period over parts of the Mid-South and/or TN Valley, but confidence in 10 percent coverage is low, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move east from northern Mexico toward central/eastern TX on Tuesday. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow across the southern Plains toward the TN Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK will meander eastward and weaken. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will transport modest Gulf moisture north across eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Moistening thermodynamic profiles and midlevel cooling ahead of the trough will support weak elevated instability across far western TX. Isolated thunderstorms may develop northeast from northern Mexico into western TX. This activity is not expected to be severe. Overnight, warm advection will result in elevated convection ahead of a southward sagging cold front from the southern Ozarks toward the TN Valley. While west/southwesterly flow will allow for moistening in the midlevels, cooling aloft will be modest and how much destabilization may occur is uncertain. A few elevated thunderstorms could be possible late in the period over parts of the Mid-South and/or TN Valley, but confidence in 10 percent coverage is low, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move east from northern Mexico toward central/eastern TX on Tuesday. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow across the southern Plains toward the TN Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK will meander eastward and weaken. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will transport modest Gulf moisture north across eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Moistening thermodynamic profiles and midlevel cooling ahead of the trough will support weak elevated instability across far western TX. Isolated thunderstorms may develop northeast from northern Mexico into western TX. This activity is not expected to be severe. Overnight, warm advection will result in elevated convection ahead of a southward sagging cold front from the southern Ozarks toward the TN Valley. While west/southwesterly flow will allow for moistening in the midlevels, cooling aloft will be modest and how much destabilization may occur is uncertain. A few elevated thunderstorms could be possible late in the period over parts of the Mid-South and/or TN Valley, but confidence in 10 percent coverage is low, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east across portions of northern Mexico on Monday. Forecast guidance has slowed in the eastward progression of this system compared to yesterday. Warm midlevel temperatures and generally poor vertical moisture profiles will result in scant elevated instability toward southern AZ/NM and TX Rio Grande vicinity. Any thunderstorm activity associated with the upper low is likely to remain south of the U.S. border. Elsewhere, modified Gulf moisture will spread northward across portions of south-central U.S. beneath an upper ridge. This boundary layer moisture will remain shallow, and dewpoints generally below 60 F. Poor thermodynamic profiles and otherwise stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east across portions of northern Mexico on Monday. Forecast guidance has slowed in the eastward progression of this system compared to yesterday. Warm midlevel temperatures and generally poor vertical moisture profiles will result in scant elevated instability toward southern AZ/NM and TX Rio Grande vicinity. Any thunderstorm activity associated with the upper low is likely to remain south of the U.S. border. Elsewhere, modified Gulf moisture will spread northward across portions of south-central U.S. beneath an upper ridge. This boundary layer moisture will remain shallow, and dewpoints generally below 60 F. Poor thermodynamic profiles and otherwise stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east across portions of northern Mexico on Monday. Forecast guidance has slowed in the eastward progression of this system compared to yesterday. Warm midlevel temperatures and generally poor vertical moisture profiles will result in scant elevated instability toward southern AZ/NM and TX Rio Grande vicinity. Any thunderstorm activity associated with the upper low is likely to remain south of the U.S. border. Elsewhere, modified Gulf moisture will spread northward across portions of south-central U.S. beneath an upper ridge. This boundary layer moisture will remain shallow, and dewpoints generally below 60 F. Poor thermodynamic profiles and otherwise stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday. Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward, eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most, but a few lightning flashes remain plausible. ..Grams.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday. Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward, eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most, but a few lightning flashes remain plausible. ..Grams.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday. Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward, eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most, but a few lightning flashes remain plausible. ..Grams.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this evening with negligible thunder potential tonight. ...Discussion... Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight. An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 02/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this evening with negligible thunder potential tonight. ...Discussion... Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight. An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 02/08/2026 Read more