Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week. general amplification of the pattern should continue into next weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over the central and Southwestern US. ...High Plains... Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread. Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated fire-weather conditions D3/Monday. Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any additional probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week. general amplification of the pattern should continue into next weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over the central and Southwestern US. ...High Plains... Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread. Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated fire-weather conditions D3/Monday. Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any additional probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week. general amplification of the pattern should continue into next weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over the central and Southwestern US. ...High Plains... Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread. Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated fire-weather conditions D3/Monday. Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any additional probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 7 22:04:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 7 22:04:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Southeast AZ... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Hart.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ and southwest NM. Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions. Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Southeast AZ... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Hart.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ and southwest NM. Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions. Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms as well. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may increase overnight into D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable moisture return likely over the southern Plains. A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes evident in later guidance. Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may increase overnight into D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable moisture return likely over the southern Plains. A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes evident in later guidance. Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may increase overnight into D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable moisture return likely over the southern Plains. A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes evident in later guidance. Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... Mid-level ridging will deamplify across the western CONUS on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the surface cold front/surface low, cooling temperatures aloft will lead to weak convective destabilization. A few lightning flashes are possible late Sunday evening into early Sunday morning across western Oregon and southwest Washington. Beneath this ridge, an upper-low will move east across northern Mexico. Some of the cold air aloft on the northern periphery of this surface low may overspread southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico with some weak instability developing. Scattered to widespread storms are likely across much of northern Mexico. A few of these storms may spread into southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. East of the Rockies, a dry airmass and high pressure will keep conditions stable and limit thunderstorm activity. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... Mid-level ridging will deamplify across the western CONUS on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the surface cold front/surface low, cooling temperatures aloft will lead to weak convective destabilization. A few lightning flashes are possible late Sunday evening into early Sunday morning across western Oregon and southwest Washington. Beneath this ridge, an upper-low will move east across northern Mexico. Some of the cold air aloft on the northern periphery of this surface low may overspread southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico with some weak instability developing. Scattered to widespread storms are likely across much of northern Mexico. A few of these storms may spread into southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. East of the Rockies, a dry airmass and high pressure will keep conditions stable and limit thunderstorm activity. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Northern Rockies... Westerly flow over parts of the northern Rockies will continue today as downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph in spots over parts of central MT. However, increasing cloud cover is also expected to limit afternoon RH minimums. This should keep fire-weather concerns more localized despite unusually dry fuels and the increase in surface winds. ...Central High Plains... Minor changes were made to the Critical Area over parts of CO and WY. Morning observations show downslope flow and partial clearing over the Plains farther east. Poor overnight humidity recoveries (below 30%) will allow for deep mixing today as RH falls further this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely from southeastern WY into western NE and northern CO. This should support a few hours of critical conditions given dry fuels over parts of the High Plains. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains region. Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical highlights appear warranted. Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the southern High Plains. Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS. RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ and southwest NM. Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions. Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms as well. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/07/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 6 02:59:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 6 02:59:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Southwest... A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas. As this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to advect northward across portions of southern California through the Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley. Coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional instability developing across the region overnight. The evolution of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at least 12Z Friday.. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Discussion... A dry and stable air mass encompassing most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Weinman.. 02/05/2026 Read more