Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. An upper trough will rotate inland across the WA/OR Cascades this afternoon, accompanied by cold temperatures aloft and strong onshore flow. Scattered showers are expected across western WA, where very weak CAPE will develop. While the risk of thunderstorms is low, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS today. ..Hart/Broyles.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. An upper trough will rotate inland across the WA/OR Cascades this afternoon, accompanied by cold temperatures aloft and strong onshore flow. Scattered showers are expected across western WA, where very weak CAPE will develop. While the risk of thunderstorms is low, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS today. ..Hart/Broyles.. 02/01/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter, strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry, offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter, strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry, offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter, strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry, offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S. through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon. While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk -- especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S. through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon. While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk -- especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S. through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon. While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk -- especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should preclude thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should preclude thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should preclude thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... After upper-level ridging shifts into parts of the Plains on Sunday, a shortwave trough will lead to some breakdown of that ridge as it dives southeastward into the central Plains on Monday. At the surface, a modest lee trough/cyclone will develop in the central high Plains and shift southward. Fire weather risk will broadly remain low across a majority of the CONUS. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the development of the lee trough/cyclone, at least modest downslope winds appear possible during the afternoon. Winds will be more northerly in the central High Plains. Mid/upper clouds make RH reductions uncertain in this area. Farther south, winds in eastern New Mexico will more likely be westerly and RH could fall below 20%. In both areas, winds will be on the light side with around 15 mph expected (locally up to 20 mph). This overall environment will be conducive to fuel drying but is not expected to carry more than a localized fire weather risk. ...Florida... RH below 25-30% will again be possible during the afternoon. A more relaxed pressure gradient will mean lighter winds than the previous two days. Temperatures will be warmer, however. Without stronger surface winds, fire weather risk appears low. Localized concerns are possible where recent rainfall was not observed. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... After upper-level ridging shifts into parts of the Plains on Sunday, a shortwave trough will lead to some breakdown of that ridge as it dives southeastward into the central Plains on Monday. At the surface, a modest lee trough/cyclone will develop in the central high Plains and shift southward. Fire weather risk will broadly remain low across a majority of the CONUS. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the development of the lee trough/cyclone, at least modest downslope winds appear possible during the afternoon. Winds will be more northerly in the central High Plains. Mid/upper clouds make RH reductions uncertain in this area. Farther south, winds in eastern New Mexico will more likely be westerly and RH could fall below 20%. In both areas, winds will be on the light side with around 15 mph expected (locally up to 20 mph). This overall environment will be conducive to fuel drying but is not expected to carry more than a localized fire weather risk. ...Florida... RH below 25-30% will again be possible during the afternoon. A more relaxed pressure gradient will mean lighter winds than the previous two days. Temperatures will be warmer, however. Without stronger surface winds, fire weather risk appears low. Localized concerns are possible where recent rainfall was not observed. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... After upper-level ridging shifts into parts of the Plains on Sunday, a shortwave trough will lead to some breakdown of that ridge as it dives southeastward into the central Plains on Monday. At the surface, a modest lee trough/cyclone will develop in the central high Plains and shift southward. Fire weather risk will broadly remain low across a majority of the CONUS. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the development of the lee trough/cyclone, at least modest downslope winds appear possible during the afternoon. Winds will be more northerly in the central High Plains. Mid/upper clouds make RH reductions uncertain in this area. Farther south, winds in eastern New Mexico will more likely be westerly and RH could fall below 20%. In both areas, winds will be on the light side with around 15 mph expected (locally up to 20 mph). This overall environment will be conducive to fuel drying but is not expected to carry more than a localized fire weather risk. ...Florida... RH below 25-30% will again be possible during the afternoon. A more relaxed pressure gradient will mean lighter winds than the previous two days. Temperatures will be warmer, however. Without stronger surface winds, fire weather risk appears low. Localized concerns are possible where recent rainfall was not observed. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a greater fire weather risk. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a greater fire weather risk. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a greater fire weather risk. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West, upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings. ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West, upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings. ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West, upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings. ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026 Read more