Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West, upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings. ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026 Read more

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 312337Z - 010430Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED TYPO SUMMARY...A focused corridor of mid-level ascent and a favorable thermodynamic profile will promote moderate to heavy snowfall potential along the NC/SC border this evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of snowfall is evident on KCAE radar imagery. This feature is tied to a shortwave trough moving through the southern Appalachians. This trough is expected to peak in intensity and become more negatively tilted around midnight to 1 AM EST. This will lead to a more consolidated and deepening coastal low off the coast of the Carolinas. Cooling of the atmospheric profile at mid-levels will foster a deeper layer within the dendritic growth zone and the band of snowfall should become more organized with time. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates (up to around an inch per hour) will be possible near the SC/NC border this evening. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33567886 33807934 34508005 34638008 34898014 35098003 35297979 35297929 34647784 34327747 33697803 33567886 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave; however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 02/01/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 31 22:46:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 31 22:46:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow with mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the eastern U.S. through late next week. Seasonably cold temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast midweek should keep fire weather concerns minimal through much of next week. Ensemble model guidance continues to suggest a prolonged upper-level ridging pattern across the West, bringing above normal surface temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West and High Plains through next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Florida... Residual northerly flow and dry conditions across the FL Peninsula should extend into Day 3/Monday. However, a more diffuse pressure gradient and resultant lighter north winds is expected as a surface high settles into the Gulf. Although low relative humidity and warmer temperatures are likely across the peninsula Monday, recent rainfall and diminished north winds should limit the fire weather threat across the area. ...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains... Fire weather concerns increase across the central and northern High Plains Day 3/Monday. An eastward propagating mid-level wave entering the Northern Plains and surface trough development in the lee of the central and southern Rockies, should support enhanced downslope drying and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains early next week. Degree of drying and magnitude of RH reductions is still uncertain, limiting confidence in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. However, unseasonably warm temperatures under high amplitude ridging, drying fine fuels, particularly across the northern High Plains where snow-free conditions exist, could increase wildfire risk in the coming days where dry/breezy conditions align. ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern California... Dry conditions and relatively warm temperatures will continue across the Southwest through the middle of next week under a building ridge over the West. Model guidance depicts a potential cut-off low developing near Baja California by Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure sliding southward into the Southern Plains midweek along with the favorably positioned mid-level low could support stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and enhanced offshore flow across southern CA Wednesday and Thursday. However, marginal fuels could limit overall impact from dry/breezy conditions limiting predictability for the midweek time frame. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow with mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the eastern U.S. through late next week. Seasonably cold temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast midweek should keep fire weather concerns minimal through much of next week. Ensemble model guidance continues to suggest a prolonged upper-level ridging pattern across the West, bringing above normal surface temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West and High Plains through next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Florida... Residual northerly flow and dry conditions across the FL Peninsula should extend into Day 3/Monday. However, a more diffuse pressure gradient and resultant lighter north winds is expected as a surface high settles into the Gulf. Although low relative humidity and warmer temperatures are likely across the peninsula Monday, recent rainfall and diminished north winds should limit the fire weather threat across the area. ...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains... Fire weather concerns increase across the central and northern High Plains Day 3/Monday. An eastward propagating mid-level wave entering the Northern Plains and surface trough development in the lee of the central and southern Rockies, should support enhanced downslope drying and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains early next week. Degree of drying and magnitude of RH reductions is still uncertain, limiting confidence in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. However, unseasonably warm temperatures under high amplitude ridging, drying fine fuels, particularly across the northern High Plains where snow-free conditions exist, could increase wildfire risk in the coming days where dry/breezy conditions align. ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern California... Dry conditions and relatively warm temperatures will continue across the Southwest through the middle of next week under a building ridge over the West. Model guidance depicts a potential cut-off low developing near Baja California by Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure sliding southward into the Southern Plains midweek along with the favorably positioned mid-level low could support stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and enhanced offshore flow across southern CA Wednesday and Thursday. However, marginal fuels could limit overall impact from dry/breezy conditions limiting predictability for the midweek time frame. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent southeastern Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311840Z - 312245Z SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas east-northeastward offshore. Across and inland of the coast, thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to .5 inches along this corridor. These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth (roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening. It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

MD 0067 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PIEDMONT OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Piedmont of Upstate South Carolina into North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311542Z - 311945Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour may become increasingly common across the Carolina Piedmont vicinity through 1-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...To this point, it appears that peak hourly snow rates within an area of snow spreading across and to the lee of the southern Appalachians have remained relatively modest. Precipitable water across the Piedmont is generally around or below .35 inches, with lower values to the west/northwest. Saturating temperature profiles are well below freezing, but temperatures conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth appear initially centered around 700 mb, somewhat low and perhaps not most optimal for larger dendritic ice crystal growth and aggregation. However, latest model output suggests that the deep, digging upstream short wave trough/elongated cyclonic circulation will gradually take on a more neutral orientation while pivoting across and southwest of the southern Appalachians through 18-21Z. Increasingly difluent and divergent mid/upper flow to the northeast of this feature is forecast to contribute to a period of strengthening upward vertical motion across the Carolina Piedmont. This may be enhanced by a band of strengthening frontogenetic forcing in the 800-700 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate cooling profiles will contribute to further lowering, but deepening, of the dendritic growth zone. As this occurs, high resolution model output, among other guidance, suggests increasing potential for hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, which may persist, at least on an off, through much of the afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35548200 36768021 35767929 34778073 34438187 35548200 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more