Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period. While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Long-wave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS as an embedded shortwave trough steadily intensifies off the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely off the GA/Carolina coast as an attendant surface cyclone intensifies; however, the warm sector of the low will remain well offshore, precluding the potential for thunderstorms over land. Elsewhere, seasonally cool conditions across the central CONUS and upper ridging over the West will further nullify thunderstorm development. ..Moore/Wendt.. 01/31/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 30 23:48:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 30 23:48:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Large scale troughing is expected to predominate the eastern U.S. through much of next week. Multiple mid-level short wave features, related surface cold fronts and precipitation should generally keep fire weather concerns minimal across much of the eastern U.S. through Day 8/Friday. A period of prolonged above normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected across the Intermountain West and High Plains as a mid-level ridge amplifies over the western U.S. A lack of drier fuels should limit overall impact from occasional dry and breezy conditions across the Desert Southwest. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Florida... A dry, post-frontal regime across FL should keep breezy northwest winds across the peninsula Sunday with a diminishing surface gradient reducing wind magnitude on Monday. However, light precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Day 2/Saturday along with abnormally cool temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness should mitigate a more expansive fire weather threat across FL. This precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland, negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern Georgia and North Florida... A strong cold front behind a rapidly deepening low just off the Carolina Coast will move through the FL Peninsula Saturday. Although breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph are expected, a lack of widespread RH reductions below 35%, considerably colder temperatures as well as effects from recent precipitation along the FL/GA border will limit a more widespread fire weather threat across the area. ..Williams.. 01/30/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the Southeast on Saturday, as high pressure settles into the western Gulf Coast states and Mississippi Valley. Low-level northerly flow will keep a dry and cool airmass in place over the central and eastern U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/30/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A longwave trough will remain steadfast east of the Rockies, with upper ridging prevalent over much of the West aside from a few ridge-riding shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis is expected late tonight off the coastal south Atlantic, with the expectation that convection will also increase offshore in vicinity of the Gulf Stream overnight through early Saturday morning. However, it appears that lightning flash potential will remain limited (less than 10 percent) for the near-coastal areas of the Carolinas. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/30/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns there. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 06:56:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 29 06:56:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more