Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential. An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential. An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30% range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30% range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30% range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30% range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...NY/PA/WV... A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US, with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...NY/PA/WV... A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US, with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...NY/PA/WV... A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US, with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...NY/PA/WV... A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US, with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more