Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Cool, dry and stable conditions across most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms the remainder of tonight. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Cool, dry and stable conditions across most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms the remainder of tonight. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Cool, dry and stable conditions across most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms the remainder of tonight. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains where dry fuels align. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling Plains. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold front moves into the central/southern Plains Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains where dry fuels align. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling Plains. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold front moves into the central/southern Plains Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains where dry fuels align. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling Plains. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold front moves into the central/southern Plains Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 11 21:52:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 11 21:52:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...Northern High Plains... Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will continue to support a downslope regime across the central and northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations. Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...Northern High Plains... Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will continue to support a downslope regime across the central and northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations. Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...Northern High Plains... Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will continue to support a downslope regime across the central and northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations. Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf Coast region. A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm potential currently expected to remain offshore. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf Coast region. A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm potential currently expected to remain offshore. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf Coast region. A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm potential currently expected to remain offshore. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

MD 0021 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL NY...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...AND FAR NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 0021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern/south-central NY...western/central PA...and far northern WV and western MD Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 111519Z - 112015Z SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls with bursts of heavy snow and visibility reductions to 1/4 to 1/2 mile will be possible into this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Preceding a robust midlevel trough and within the left-exit region of a 90-100-kt midlevel jet, a secondary cold front is tracking eastward across parts of western NY, western PA, and far northern WV. Mosaic radar data indicates a few loosely organized snow squalls along the wind shift -- some of which have been associated with visibility reductions to 1/4 mile and gusty winds. Through the afternoon, cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will steepen low-level lapse rates (generating weak low-level instability) amid 30-40 kt of unidirectional west-southwesterly flow in the lowest 2 km (per regional VWP). This will support the development of periodic snow-squall conditions spreading eastward into the afternoon. Given the lack of a stronger cold front/low-level frontogenesis, these squalls may tend to be transient and generally be associated with visibility reductions of 1/2. However, 1/4 mile visibility and strong gusts will be possible with the stronger squalls that evolve, as seen by the Delevan NY State mesonet web cam in northeast Cattaraugus County NY at 1500-1515Z. ..Weinman.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 40847957 41447933 42217883 42807830 43147773 43177729 43067649 42787614 42277584 41707596 41407639 41237689 40837756 39407859 39147924 39297985 39627990 40847957 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential. An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential. An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection. ..Dean.. 01/11/2026 Read more