SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.
The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.
The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.
The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into
the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure
will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture
and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into
the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure
will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture
and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into
the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure
will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture
and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into
the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure
will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture
and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
...01z Update...
A surface cold front will continue to scoot eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early Sunday. Thunderstorm
potential has largely waned ahead of the front as upper forcing
weakens and any modest instability remains offshore over the eastern
Gulf and/or over the Gulf Stream. As a result, the general
thunderstorm area has been removed across the Southeast.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
...01z Update...
A surface cold front will continue to scoot eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early Sunday. Thunderstorm
potential has largely waned ahead of the front as upper forcing
weakens and any modest instability remains offshore over the eastern
Gulf and/or over the Gulf Stream. As a result, the general
thunderstorm area has been removed across the Southeast.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper ridge over the western U.S. will support
increasing temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. A
residual dry, post-frontal air mass will remain across the Southeast
through Day 4/Tuesday, but overall winds should remain light. An
upper-level low moving from Baja California into Southwest TX could
usher in deeper Pacific moisture and rainfall into portions of
Southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday. A potent
upper trough and accompanying surface cold front should move through
the central/eastern CONUS Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, with some
potential to bring fire weather concerns back into the
central/southern Plains on Wednesday.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Central High Plains...
A subtle mid-level short wave within broad northwesterly flow should
pass over the Southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday supporting enhanced
downslope winds across northeastern CO, southeastern WY and the NE
Panhandle. An intensifying mid-level jet over the northern High
Plains will similarly promote breezy northwest winds across the
same, snow-free region on Day 4/Tuesday. However, limited RH
reductions could mitigate a larger fire weather concern.
...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Central/Southern Plains
A strong, dry cold front moving through the central and southern
Plains should bring gusty north winds and conditional fire weather
concerns back into portions of TX on Day 5/Wednesday. Pacific
moisture and precipitation associated with an upper-level low
currently near Baja California could mitigate fire weather impacts
across much of southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day
4/Tuesday, preceding the passage of the cold front on Day
5/Wednesday. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of north-central TX where minimal rainfall is expected amid
receptive/dormant fuels. Potential for an impactful dry return flow
event is possible on Day 6/Thursday across the Southern Plains, but
considerable timing/spatial uncertainty exists with the next surface
cold front entering the central U.S. Therefore, critical
probabilities were withheld for Thursday.
..Williams.. 01/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper ridge over the western U.S. will support
increasing temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. A
residual dry, post-frontal air mass will remain across the Southeast
through Day 4/Tuesday, but overall winds should remain light. An
upper-level low moving from Baja California into Southwest TX could
usher in deeper Pacific moisture and rainfall into portions of
Southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday. A potent
upper trough and accompanying surface cold front should move through
the central/eastern CONUS Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, with some
potential to bring fire weather concerns back into the
central/southern Plains on Wednesday.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Central High Plains...
A subtle mid-level short wave within broad northwesterly flow should
pass over the Southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday supporting enhanced
downslope winds across northeastern CO, southeastern WY and the NE
Panhandle. An intensifying mid-level jet over the northern High
Plains will similarly promote breezy northwest winds across the
same, snow-free region on Day 4/Tuesday. However, limited RH
reductions could mitigate a larger fire weather concern.
...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Central/Southern Plains
A strong, dry cold front moving through the central and southern
Plains should bring gusty north winds and conditional fire weather
concerns back into portions of TX on Day 5/Wednesday. Pacific
moisture and precipitation associated with an upper-level low
currently near Baja California could mitigate fire weather impacts
across much of southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day
4/Tuesday, preceding the passage of the cold front on Day
5/Wednesday. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of north-central TX where minimal rainfall is expected amid
receptive/dormant fuels. Potential for an impactful dry return flow
event is possible on Day 6/Thursday across the Southern Plains, but
considerable timing/spatial uncertainty exists with the next surface
cold front entering the central U.S. Therefore, critical
probabilities were withheld for Thursday.
..Williams.. 01/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
...20Z Update...
Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper
Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through
parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later
this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually
diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has
encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward.
This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH
VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe
probabilities have been removed with this update.
..Wendt.. 01/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/
...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob.
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.
A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.
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