Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero, but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night. Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally, flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase precipitation swath. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero, but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night. Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally, flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase precipitation swath. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero, but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night. Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally, flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase precipitation swath. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero, but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night. Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally, flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase precipitation swath. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits. The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the teens will yield a critical fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits. The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the teens will yield a critical fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits. The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the teens will yield a critical fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from morning to mid-afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from morning to mid-afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from morning to mid-afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from morning to mid-afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Discussion... Mid-level troughing, digging into and through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast early today, is forecast to quickly turn eastward offshore and across the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of the period, trailed by a more modest perturbation digging across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas vicinity. A broadly confluent mid-level regime in its wake is forecast to support the eastward progression of cool surface ridging into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, with perhaps some further southward advancement of the weakening leading edge of the cold air possible across the southern Florida peninsula and central through southwestern Gulf Basin. While mid/upper ridging is likely to be maintained across much of interior North America, it appears that it will gradually lose amplitude as a number of smaller-scale perturbations, emerging from splitting large-scale troughing near the Pacific coast, progress through it. Across the eastern Pacific into western North America, models generally indicate that one weakening short wave impulse will accelerate inland across the central California coast and Sierra Nevada during the day, trailed inland by a somewhat stronger, but weakening, perturbation across the Pacific Northwest and Cascades, in advance of a sharply digging perturbation across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. ...Pacific Coast into Intermountain West... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the region today through tonight probably will contribute to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles occasionally becoming at least marginally conducive to widely scattered convective development capable of producing lightning. ...Southern Florida... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, associated with the digging short wave trough, might contribute to sufficient destabilization for an isolated brief thunderstorm or two, mainly across the interior southern peninsula through southeast coastal areas late this afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Discussion... Mid-level troughing, digging into and through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast early today, is forecast to quickly turn eastward offshore and across the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of the period, trailed by a more modest perturbation digging across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas vicinity. A broadly confluent mid-level regime in its wake is forecast to support the eastward progression of cool surface ridging into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, with perhaps some further southward advancement of the weakening leading edge of the cold air possible across the southern Florida peninsula and central through southwestern Gulf Basin. While mid/upper ridging is likely to be maintained across much of interior North America, it appears that it will gradually lose amplitude as a number of smaller-scale perturbations, emerging from splitting large-scale troughing near the Pacific coast, progress through it. Across the eastern Pacific into western North America, models generally indicate that one weakening short wave impulse will accelerate inland across the central California coast and Sierra Nevada during the day, trailed inland by a somewhat stronger, but weakening, perturbation across the Pacific Northwest and Cascades, in advance of a sharply digging perturbation across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. ...Pacific Coast into Intermountain West... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the region today through tonight probably will contribute to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles occasionally becoming at least marginally conducive to widely scattered convective development capable of producing lightning. ...Southern Florida... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, associated with the digging short wave trough, might contribute to sufficient destabilization for an isolated brief thunderstorm or two, mainly across the interior southern peninsula through southeast coastal areas late this afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Discussion... Mid-level troughing, digging into and through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast early today, is forecast to quickly turn eastward offshore and across the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of the period, trailed by a more modest perturbation digging across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas vicinity. A broadly confluent mid-level regime in its wake is forecast to support the eastward progression of cool surface ridging into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, with perhaps some further southward advancement of the weakening leading edge of the cold air possible across the southern Florida peninsula and central through southwestern Gulf Basin. While mid/upper ridging is likely to be maintained across much of interior North America, it appears that it will gradually lose amplitude as a number of smaller-scale perturbations, emerging from splitting large-scale troughing near the Pacific coast, progress through it. Across the eastern Pacific into western North America, models generally indicate that one weakening short wave impulse will accelerate inland across the central California coast and Sierra Nevada during the day, trailed inland by a somewhat stronger, but weakening, perturbation across the Pacific Northwest and Cascades, in advance of a sharply digging perturbation across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. ...Pacific Coast into Intermountain West... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the region today through tonight probably will contribute to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles occasionally becoming at least marginally conducive to widely scattered convective development capable of producing lightning. ...Southern Florida... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, associated with the digging short wave trough, might contribute to sufficient destabilization for an isolated brief thunderstorm or two, mainly across the interior southern peninsula through southeast coastal areas late this afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Discussion... Mid-level troughing, digging into and through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast early today, is forecast to quickly turn eastward offshore and across the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of the period, trailed by a more modest perturbation digging across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas vicinity. A broadly confluent mid-level regime in its wake is forecast to support the eastward progression of cool surface ridging into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, with perhaps some further southward advancement of the weakening leading edge of the cold air possible across the southern Florida peninsula and central through southwestern Gulf Basin. While mid/upper ridging is likely to be maintained across much of interior North America, it appears that it will gradually lose amplitude as a number of smaller-scale perturbations, emerging from splitting large-scale troughing near the Pacific coast, progress through it. Across the eastern Pacific into western North America, models generally indicate that one weakening short wave impulse will accelerate inland across the central California coast and Sierra Nevada during the day, trailed inland by a somewhat stronger, but weakening, perturbation across the Pacific Northwest and Cascades, in advance of a sharply digging perturbation across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. ...Pacific Coast into Intermountain West... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the region today through tonight probably will contribute to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles occasionally becoming at least marginally conducive to widely scattered convective development capable of producing lightning. ...Southern Florida... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, associated with the digging short wave trough, might contribute to sufficient destabilization for an isolated brief thunderstorm or two, mainly across the interior southern peninsula through southeast coastal areas late this afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A risk for generally weak thunderstorm activity continues tonight across parts of northern and central California, the northern intermountain region and, perhaps, parts of northern and central Florida. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Any appreciable lingering risk for thunderstorm activity now appears confined to stronger convection along the leading edge of southward advancing pre-cold frontal convective outflow. Guidance suggests that this will generally become focused across the offshore northeastern Gulf and western Atlantic tonight. Over land, boundary-layer instability has waned, but it is possible that forcing near intersecting surface outflows maintains a small lingering cluster of thunderstorms across the interior northern Florida peninsula for a couple more hours this evening. ...California... Mid-level cooling/forcing for ascent associated with another low-amplitude short wave trough approaching northern/central California coastal areas may maintain at least low probabilities for thunderstorm activity offshore and inland of coastal areas through tonight. ..Kerr.. 01/04/2026 Read more