Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid 60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of this greater low-level moisture. Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when colder mid-level temperatures are in place. ...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon... Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid 60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of this greater low-level moisture. Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when colder mid-level temperatures are in place. ...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon... Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday. For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday. For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night. ...Discussion... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night. ...Discussion... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL. Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening. Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL. Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening. Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas. Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas. Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move east into the central US during the forecast period. This will result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast, a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern for large-scale fire activity. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move east into the central US during the forecast period. This will result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast, a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern for large-scale fire activity. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts will be possible. ...California/Southwest Oregon... At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California. At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop, especially as low-level strengthens during the evening. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts will be possible. ...California/Southwest Oregon... At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California. At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop, especially as low-level strengthens during the evening. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move through the Southeast tonight. Ahead of this feature, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Further west, a shortwave trough will move southeastward across the southern Plains this evening. A small cluster of thunderstorms near the trough will likely persist for a couple more hours in the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. In the western U.S., a few thunderstorms may develop in California tonight ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the eastern Pacific. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move through the Southeast tonight. Ahead of this feature, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Further west, a shortwave trough will move southeastward across the southern Plains this evening. A small cluster of thunderstorms near the trough will likely persist for a couple more hours in the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. In the western U.S., a few thunderstorms may develop in California tonight ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the eastern Pacific. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Mid-level flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies with short-waves traversing the crest of the central US ridge through the extended period. Eventually the ridge will break down, with potential for ejection of a deeper wave across Southwest into the Plains by the end of the period. Widespread rainfall will be common across the western US/eastern US during this time period, with little to no precipitation extending into the central/southern High Plains. As such, multiple periods of interest are expected to produce fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday through D4/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains... On D3/Sunday, aforementioned westerly flow aloft will increase across the northern/central Rockies. As a result of increasing westerly gradients and surface low development, an increase in downslope flow is expected across portions of the Front Range. There remains some disconnect in deterministic model runs in the strongest winds with the lowest relative humidity, with the strongest winds across Wyoming into Nebraska and the driest conditions across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Given the pattern, confidence is increasing that winds across the immediate Front Range and downslope favored zones will likely be higher than progged with lower relative humidity than in current guidance, with sustained westerly flow 15-20 mph gusting 30+ mph. It is also likely that through the higher elevations, winds may be even stronger. Fuels across portions of northeastern Colorado into Wyoming continue to be historically dry (seasonally above average and approaching maximum dryness for the time period). As such, a 40 percent area was introduced along the Front Range and into southeastern Wyoming. ...D5/Tuesday - Southern/Central Plains... Upper-level flow will shift southward D5/Tuesday, with increase in downslope flow expected to extend into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels across these regions remain critically dry. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and extend into southeastern Colorado. Some consideration was given to a small 70 percent region across the Texas Panhandle. For now, have maintained the 40 percent with some disagreement remaining in exactly how low relative humidity will be. Beyond D5/Tuesday, periods of locally Elevated conditions may occur across portions of the Central/Southern Plains as flow aloft remains strong. However, surface pressure gradients weaken D6/Wednesday with a building surface high. A stronger wave may eject from the Southwest on D7/Thursday to D8/Friday. At the same time, a stationary front may evolve across the eastern US into the southern Plains, bringing several rounds of precipitation. It is likely that some area of the central/southern High Plains will see additional increased fire weather potential. For now, model spread on features remains too high to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Mid-level flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies with short-waves traversing the crest of the central US ridge through the extended period. Eventually the ridge will break down, with potential for ejection of a deeper wave across Southwest into the Plains by the end of the period. Widespread rainfall will be common across the western US/eastern US during this time period, with little to no precipitation extending into the central/southern High Plains. As such, multiple periods of interest are expected to produce fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday through D4/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains... On D3/Sunday, aforementioned westerly flow aloft will increase across the northern/central Rockies. As a result of increasing westerly gradients and surface low development, an increase in downslope flow is expected across portions of the Front Range. There remains some disconnect in deterministic model runs in the strongest winds with the lowest relative humidity, with the strongest winds across Wyoming into Nebraska and the driest conditions across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Given the pattern, confidence is increasing that winds across the immediate Front Range and downslope favored zones will likely be higher than progged with lower relative humidity than in current guidance, with sustained westerly flow 15-20 mph gusting 30+ mph. It is also likely that through the higher elevations, winds may be even stronger. Fuels across portions of northeastern Colorado into Wyoming continue to be historically dry (seasonally above average and approaching maximum dryness for the time period). As such, a 40 percent area was introduced along the Front Range and into southeastern Wyoming. ...D5/Tuesday - Southern/Central Plains... Upper-level flow will shift southward D5/Tuesday, with increase in downslope flow expected to extend into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels across these regions remain critically dry. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and extend into southeastern Colorado. Some consideration was given to a small 70 percent region across the Texas Panhandle. For now, have maintained the 40 percent with some disagreement remaining in exactly how low relative humidity will be. Beyond D5/Tuesday, periods of locally Elevated conditions may occur across portions of the Central/Southern Plains as flow aloft remains strong. However, surface pressure gradients weaken D6/Wednesday with a building surface high. A stronger wave may eject from the Southwest on D7/Thursday to D8/Friday. At the same time, a stationary front may evolve across the eastern US into the southern Plains, bringing several rounds of precipitation. It is likely that some area of the central/southern High Plains will see additional increased fire weather potential. For now, model spread on features remains too high to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Mid-level flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies with short-waves traversing the crest of the central US ridge through the extended period. Eventually the ridge will break down, with potential for ejection of a deeper wave across Southwest into the Plains by the end of the period. Widespread rainfall will be common across the western US/eastern US during this time period, with little to no precipitation extending into the central/southern High Plains. As such, multiple periods of interest are expected to produce fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday through D4/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains... On D3/Sunday, aforementioned westerly flow aloft will increase across the northern/central Rockies. As a result of increasing westerly gradients and surface low development, an increase in downslope flow is expected across portions of the Front Range. There remains some disconnect in deterministic model runs in the strongest winds with the lowest relative humidity, with the strongest winds across Wyoming into Nebraska and the driest conditions across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Given the pattern, confidence is increasing that winds across the immediate Front Range and downslope favored zones will likely be higher than progged with lower relative humidity than in current guidance, with sustained westerly flow 15-20 mph gusting 30+ mph. It is also likely that through the higher elevations, winds may be even stronger. Fuels across portions of northeastern Colorado into Wyoming continue to be historically dry (seasonally above average and approaching maximum dryness for the time period). As such, a 40 percent area was introduced along the Front Range and into southeastern Wyoming. ...D5/Tuesday - Southern/Central Plains... Upper-level flow will shift southward D5/Tuesday, with increase in downslope flow expected to extend into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels across these regions remain critically dry. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and extend into southeastern Colorado. Some consideration was given to a small 70 percent region across the Texas Panhandle. For now, have maintained the 40 percent with some disagreement remaining in exactly how low relative humidity will be. Beyond D5/Tuesday, periods of locally Elevated conditions may occur across portions of the Central/Southern Plains as flow aloft remains strong. However, surface pressure gradients weaken D6/Wednesday with a building surface high. A stronger wave may eject from the Southwest on D7/Thursday to D8/Friday. At the same time, a stationary front may evolve across the eastern US into the southern Plains, bringing several rounds of precipitation. It is likely that some area of the central/southern High Plains will see additional increased fire weather potential. For now, model spread on features remains too high to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 2 21:48:01 UTC 2026.