SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A risk for generally weak thunderstorm activity continues tonight
across parts of northern and central California, the northern
intermountain region and, perhaps, parts of northern and central
Florida.
...01Z Update...
...Florida...
Any appreciable lingering risk for thunderstorm activity now appears
confined to stronger convection along the leading edge of southward
advancing pre-cold frontal convective outflow. Guidance suggests
that this will generally become focused across the offshore
northeastern Gulf and western Atlantic tonight. Over land,
boundary-layer instability has waned, but it is possible that
forcing near intersecting surface outflows maintains a small
lingering cluster of thunderstorms across the interior northern
Florida peninsula for a couple more hours this evening.
...California...
Mid-level cooling/forcing for ascent associated with another
low-amplitude short wave trough approaching northern/central
California coastal areas may maintain at least low probabilities for
thunderstorm activity offshore and inland of coastal areas through
tonight.
..Kerr.. 01/04/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
By early next week, an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will
precede a shortwave trough moving into the Four Corners region. West
to southwesterly increasing mid-level flow will impact the Southern
Rockies. This shortwave trough will continue eastward into TN Valley
and Midwest into D4/Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow anticipated
thereafter. By late into next week, the pattern will become more
amplified as a longwave trough replaces the ridge over most of the
CONUS.
...D3/Monday...
A lee trough will deepen Monday afternoon in response to increasing
orthogonal flow and an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. The
resulting surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of
stronger flow aloft, will yield breezy westerly downslope flow from
the High Plains of CO, TX, and NM into the OK and TX Panhandles.
Current uncertainties regarding the duration of critical wind
speeds, especially across the southern TX Panhandle, do not warrant
the introduction of higher probabilities at this time. This overall
pattern, however, does suggest the possibility of more widespread
near critical fire weather conditions given the increasing mid-level
height gradient, orientation of such, and position of the low-level
thermal ridge. The latter should extend southwest to northeast from
the Western Low Rolling Plains into northwest TX/the southeastern TX
Panhandle. Locations just west of this axis within the higher wind
speeds will be investigated in subsequent forecasts for the
potential inclusion of a D2 Critical area.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
By early next week, an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will
precede a shortwave trough moving into the Four Corners region. West
to southwesterly increasing mid-level flow will impact the Southern
Rockies. This shortwave trough will continue eastward into TN Valley
and Midwest into D4/Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow anticipated
thereafter. By late into next week, the pattern will become more
amplified as a longwave trough replaces the ridge over most of the
CONUS.
...D3/Monday...
A lee trough will deepen Monday afternoon in response to increasing
orthogonal flow and an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. The
resulting surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of
stronger flow aloft, will yield breezy westerly downslope flow from
the High Plains of CO, TX, and NM into the OK and TX Panhandles.
Current uncertainties regarding the duration of critical wind
speeds, especially across the southern TX Panhandle, do not warrant
the introduction of higher probabilities at this time. This overall
pattern, however, does suggest the possibility of more widespread
near critical fire weather conditions given the increasing mid-level
height gradient, orientation of such, and position of the low-level
thermal ridge. The latter should extend southwest to northeast from
the Western Low Rolling Plains into northwest TX/the southeastern TX
Panhandle. Locations just west of this axis within the higher wind
speeds will be investigated in subsequent forecasts for the
potential inclusion of a D2 Critical area.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Update...
A few minor changes were made to the Elevated area for Sunday. An
expansion southward to include more of the OK and TX Panhandles and
northeast NM was introduced given the potential for higher wind
speeds there, while less of the High Plains of northern CO will be
impacted by these stronger winds. The highest wind speeds coinciding
with RH in the teens are still anticipated Sunday afternoon across
portions of the Front Range of CO, though the duration and areal
extent of critical weather conditions does not warrant an upgrade at
this time. Further south and east into NM, TX and OK, RH will
generally range from 20 to 25 percent. For additional details,
please see the previous discussion below.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on
Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level
flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a
long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in
minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens
and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the
adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts
winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests
stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee
troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas.
Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon
winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds
or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the
highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent
forecasts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Update...
A few minor changes were made to the Elevated area for Sunday. An
expansion southward to include more of the OK and TX Panhandles and
northeast NM was introduced given the potential for higher wind
speeds there, while less of the High Plains of northern CO will be
impacted by these stronger winds. The highest wind speeds coinciding
with RH in the teens are still anticipated Sunday afternoon across
portions of the Front Range of CO, though the duration and areal
extent of critical weather conditions does not warrant an upgrade at
this time. Further south and east into NM, TX and OK, RH will
generally range from 20 to 25 percent. For additional details,
please see the previous discussion below.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on
Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level
flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a
long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in
minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens
and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the
adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts
winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests
stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee
troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas.
Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon
winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds
or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the
highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent
forecasts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern
California and southwest Oregon.
...20z Update Southeast...
Overall, only minor changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe
and thunder probabilities were cleared west of a cluster of
thunderstorms ongoing along the northern Gulf Coast from southern
AL/GA into northern FL. Located ahead of a weak cold front, the
environment east of these storms is expected gradually become more
stable owing to remnant cloud cover/precipitation. Still, 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 kt of deep-layer shear will remain sufficient
for occasional stronger/organized updrafts. Isolated hail, damaging
gusts or a brief tornado are possible, especially with any more
persistent supercell structures able to develop over southern GA and
the FL Panhandle.
...CA...
Several stronger convective elements remain near the coast or just
onshore beneath a strengthening shortwave trough over northern CA
and southern OR. Cool mid-level temperatures (-25C) and strong
frontal forcing will continue to support low-topped storms through
this afternoon. Large-low-level hodographs and strong southwesterly
flow aloft will support an isolated risk for damaging gusts, and
perhaps a brief tornado with any rotating miniature supercell or
QLCS structures moving onshore. Storms should weaken as the cold
front and upper trough move onshore completely this evening.
Farther south, strong ascent, from the aforementioned trough, and
modest surface heating are supporting weak destabilization over the
northern San Joaquin Valley. Favorable low-level hodograph curvature
and buoyancy could support an isolated low-topped supercell capable
of a brief tornado this afternoon. See the prior outlook for
additional info.
..Lyons.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Southeast...
Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across
the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak
surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of
scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak
near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential
to its north, while potential severe storm development should be
more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern
Florida.
Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,
limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level
westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting
in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.
Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some
isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near
the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and
inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of
thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with
the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped
rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern
California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind
field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially
rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind
and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.
Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through
the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in
enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell
capable of a brief tornado.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern
California and southwest Oregon.
...20z Update Southeast...
Overall, only minor changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe
and thunder probabilities were cleared west of a cluster of
thunderstorms ongoing along the northern Gulf Coast from southern
AL/GA into northern FL. Located ahead of a weak cold front, the
environment east of these storms is expected gradually become more
stable owing to remnant cloud cover/precipitation. Still, 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 kt of deep-layer shear will remain sufficient
for occasional stronger/organized updrafts. Isolated hail, damaging
gusts or a brief tornado are possible, especially with any more
persistent supercell structures able to develop over southern GA and
the FL Panhandle.
...CA...
Several stronger convective elements remain near the coast or just
onshore beneath a strengthening shortwave trough over northern CA
and southern OR. Cool mid-level temperatures (-25C) and strong
frontal forcing will continue to support low-topped storms through
this afternoon. Large-low-level hodographs and strong southwesterly
flow aloft will support an isolated risk for damaging gusts, and
perhaps a brief tornado with any rotating miniature supercell or
QLCS structures moving onshore. Storms should weaken as the cold
front and upper trough move onshore completely this evening.
Farther south, strong ascent, from the aforementioned trough, and
modest surface heating are supporting weak destabilization over the
northern San Joaquin Valley. Favorable low-level hodograph curvature
and buoyancy could support an isolated low-topped supercell capable
of a brief tornado this afternoon. See the prior outlook for
additional info.
..Lyons.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Southeast...
Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across
the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak
surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of
scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak
near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential
to its north, while potential severe storm development should be
more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern
Florida.
Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,
limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level
westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting
in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.
Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some
isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near
the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and
inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of
thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with
the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped
rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern
California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind
field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially
rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind
and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.
Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through
the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in
enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell
capable of a brief tornado.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the
California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night.
...Synopsis...
Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday
as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another
upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor
lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm
potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has
trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C)
across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA
coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in
proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for
sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected
to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon.
..Moore.. 01/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the
California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night.
...Synopsis...
Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday
as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another
upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor
lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm
potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has
trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C)
across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA
coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in
proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for
sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected
to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon.
..Moore.. 01/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the
California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night.
...Synopsis...
Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday
as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another
upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor
lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm
potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has
trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C)
across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA
coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in
proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for
sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected
to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon.
..Moore.. 01/03/2026
Read more
MD 0005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southern
Georgia...Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031752Z - 031945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind, hail, and a
tornado possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues
across the Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia this afternoon.
Largely, this is ongoing on the eastern edge of the better air mass
extending across the western Panhandle into southern
Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana.
Closer to the front ahead of the ejecting wave, new development is
ongoing across southern Alabama within the more appreciable
instability and deep layer shear overlap. A few stronger echo tops
are observed on radar in recent scans with some uptick in lightning
activity suggesting a few isolated strong to severe storms may be
trying to form. Given environment with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and
deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, some risk for transient
supercells and stronger cores will be possible. It remains somewhat
uncertain how the downstream air mass will recover after morning
shower activity. However, some hi-res guidance suggests that the
broken line may intensify and or activity to the north near the
front may organize and shift southward. The second scenario remains
more likely, however, longevity of this severe risk is uncertain as
these storms move into the less favorable air mass.
Overall, some threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado
will be possible through the early afternoon. Given uncertainty on
duration and coverage, a watch is not anticipated at this time.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30108801 30378837 30598854 30978846 31998711 32308482
32228335 32058188 31768107 31478100 31268101 30318173
29748247 29518419 29668535 29968697 30108801
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited for Sunday
across the country. A cold front currently migrating across the
lower MS Valley and into the Southeast today will continue pushing
southward along the FL Peninsula through tomorrow. Weak forcing for
ascent, warm mid-level temperatures, and diminishing wind shear will
largely limit the potential for strong convection, though a few
lightning flashes appear possible along the southeast FL coast.
Across the West, a secondary upper wave approaching the West Coast
will begin to move onshore through the day. Cool mid-level
temperatures combined with broad-scale ascent may support sporadic
lightning flashes during the afternoon/evening hours across CA's
Central Valley and along the CA/OR/WA coastline. Occasional
lightning is also possible across parts of northern UT and adjacent
areas of ID/WY where warm low-level conditions near the Great Salt
Lake may support adequate buoyancy for weak convection.
..Moore.. 01/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited for Sunday
across the country. A cold front currently migrating across the
lower MS Valley and into the Southeast today will continue pushing
southward along the FL Peninsula through tomorrow. Weak forcing for
ascent, warm mid-level temperatures, and diminishing wind shear will
largely limit the potential for strong convection, though a few
lightning flashes appear possible along the southeast FL coast.
Across the West, a secondary upper wave approaching the West Coast
will begin to move onshore through the day. Cool mid-level
temperatures combined with broad-scale ascent may support sporadic
lightning flashes during the afternoon/evening hours across CA's
Central Valley and along the CA/OR/WA coastline. Occasional
lightning is also possible across parts of northern UT and adjacent
areas of ID/WY where warm low-level conditions near the Great Salt
Lake may support adequate buoyancy for weak convection.
..Moore.. 01/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required to the current forecast for today. Please
see the discussion below for additional details.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move
east into the central US during the forecast period. This will
result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing
surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the
central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast,
a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave
troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to
improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern
for large-scale fire activity.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required to the current forecast for today. Please
see the discussion below for additional details.
..Barnes.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move
east into the central US during the forecast period. This will
result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing
surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the
central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast,
a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave
troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to
improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern
for large-scale fire activity.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Areas affected...northern California and southern Oregon coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031639Z - 031845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase along the coast
through late morning/early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection offshore across portions of northern
California has shown some uptick in lightning activity over the last
hour. In addition, transient weak rotation has been observed on
radar. While thermodynamic profiles are generally poor (around 250
J/kg or less of MLCAPE), shear is increasing with the increasing
upper-level flow with the trough moving closer inland. The VAD
profile from BHX (Eureka, CA) shows 0-1 km SRH around 420 m2/s2,
with favorable low-level curvature. Some risk for waterspouts and/or
a tornado will be possible near the immediate coastline across
northern California into far southern Oregon over the next couple of
hours. In addition, some risk for strong to severe winds will be
possible. This threat should remain limited owing to the poor
instability and as such, a watch is not anticipated at this time.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...
LAT...LON 39342389 39912360 40192368 42822401 43852408 43582489
43282561 42312600 41472561 40182492 39922480 39562455
39422445 39332429 39312409 39332394 39342389
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern
California and southwest Oregon.
...Southeast...
Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across
the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak
surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of
scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak
near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential
to its north, while potential severe storm development should be
more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern
Florida.
Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,
limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level
westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting
in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.
Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some
isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near
the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and
inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of
thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with
the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped
rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern
California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind
field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially
rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind
and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.
Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through
the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in
enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell
capable of a brief tornado.
..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern
California and southwest Oregon.
...Southeast...
Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across
the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak
surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of
scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak
near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential
to its north, while potential severe storm development should be
more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern
Florida.
Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,
limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level
westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting
in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.
Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some
isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near
the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and
inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of
thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with
the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped
rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern
California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind
field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially
rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind
and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.
Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through
the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in
enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell
capable of a brief tornado.
..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/03/2026
Read more
