Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night. ...Synopsis... Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C) across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night. ...Synopsis... Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C) across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/03/2026 Read more

MD 0005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southern Georgia...Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031752Z - 031945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind, hail, and a tornado possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues across the Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia this afternoon. Largely, this is ongoing on the eastern edge of the better air mass extending across the western Panhandle into southern Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana. Closer to the front ahead of the ejecting wave, new development is ongoing across southern Alabama within the more appreciable instability and deep layer shear overlap. A few stronger echo tops are observed on radar in recent scans with some uptick in lightning activity suggesting a few isolated strong to severe storms may be trying to form. Given environment with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, some risk for transient supercells and stronger cores will be possible. It remains somewhat uncertain how the downstream air mass will recover after morning shower activity. However, some hi-res guidance suggests that the broken line may intensify and or activity to the north near the front may organize and shift southward. The second scenario remains more likely, however, longevity of this severe risk is uncertain as these storms move into the less favorable air mass. Overall, some threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado will be possible through the early afternoon. Given uncertainty on duration and coverage, a watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30108801 30378837 30598854 30978846 31998711 32308482 32228335 32058188 31768107 31478100 31268101 30318173 29748247 29518419 29668535 29968697 30108801 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited for Sunday across the country. A cold front currently migrating across the lower MS Valley and into the Southeast today will continue pushing southward along the FL Peninsula through tomorrow. Weak forcing for ascent, warm mid-level temperatures, and diminishing wind shear will largely limit the potential for strong convection, though a few lightning flashes appear possible along the southeast FL coast. Across the West, a secondary upper wave approaching the West Coast will begin to move onshore through the day. Cool mid-level temperatures combined with broad-scale ascent may support sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon/evening hours across CA's Central Valley and along the CA/OR/WA coastline. Occasional lightning is also possible across parts of northern UT and adjacent areas of ID/WY where warm low-level conditions near the Great Salt Lake may support adequate buoyancy for weak convection. ..Moore.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited for Sunday across the country. A cold front currently migrating across the lower MS Valley and into the Southeast today will continue pushing southward along the FL Peninsula through tomorrow. Weak forcing for ascent, warm mid-level temperatures, and diminishing wind shear will largely limit the potential for strong convection, though a few lightning flashes appear possible along the southeast FL coast. Across the West, a secondary upper wave approaching the West Coast will begin to move onshore through the day. Cool mid-level temperatures combined with broad-scale ascent may support sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon/evening hours across CA's Central Valley and along the CA/OR/WA coastline. Occasional lightning is also possible across parts of northern UT and adjacent areas of ID/WY where warm low-level conditions near the Great Salt Lake may support adequate buoyancy for weak convection. ..Moore.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required to the current forecast for today. Please see the discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 01/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move east into the central US during the forecast period. This will result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast, a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern for large-scale fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required to the current forecast for today. Please see the discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 01/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move east into the central US during the forecast period. This will result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast, a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern for large-scale fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Areas affected...northern California and southern Oregon coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031639Z - 031845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase along the coast through late morning/early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection offshore across portions of northern California has shown some uptick in lightning activity over the last hour. In addition, transient weak rotation has been observed on radar. While thermodynamic profiles are generally poor (around 250 J/kg or less of MLCAPE), shear is increasing with the increasing upper-level flow with the trough moving closer inland. The VAD profile from BHX (Eureka, CA) shows 0-1 km SRH around 420 m2/s2, with favorable low-level curvature. Some risk for waterspouts and/or a tornado will be possible near the immediate coastline across northern California into far southern Oregon over the next couple of hours. In addition, some risk for strong to severe winds will be possible. This threat should remain limited owing to the poor instability and as such, a watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA... LAT...LON 39342389 39912360 40192368 42822401 43852408 43582489 43282561 42312600 41472561 40182492 39922480 39562455 39422445 39332429 39312409 39332394 39342389 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast... Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential to its north, while potential severe storm development should be more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern Florida. Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon... A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast... Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential to its north, while potential severe storm development should be more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern Florida. Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon... A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid 60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of this greater low-level moisture. Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when colder mid-level temperatures are in place. ...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon... Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. ...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid 60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of this greater low-level moisture. Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when colder mid-level temperatures are in place. ...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon... Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday. For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday. For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night. ...Discussion... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night. ...Discussion... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL. Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening. Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL. Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening. Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/03/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas. Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas. Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 01/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more