MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central NE
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 021834Z - 022230Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain may continue through the afternoon, and may
occasionally mix with sleet. Modest ice accretion is possible.
DISCUSSION...Precipitation has gradually increased in coverage
through the morning across western/central NE, in association with
midlevel shortwave trough moving east-southeastward across the
region. Initial dryness in the 850-700 mb layer (as observed in the
18Z OAX sounding) has likely limited precipitation amounts to some
extent, but a modest increase in rates is possible into mid
afternoon as saturation occurs and precipitation continues. The
surface freezing line is currently oriented north-south across
west-central NE, and is expected to make only slow eastward progress
through the afternoon, as ongoing precipitation and low-level
cold/dry advection help to maintain subfreezing conditions farther
east.
The bulk of the afternoon precipitation will fall where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing. Some sleet will be possible
within the colder environment across north-central/northeast NE, but
short-term guidance continues to indicate primarily freezing rain
across central NE, where a shallower subfreezing layer will be in
place. Precipitation will generally remain rather light, but 3-hour
rates may approach or exceed 0.05", with modest ice accretion
possible.
..Dean.. 01/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42599956 42539834 41849752 41329706 40939707 40739767
40719860 40919965 41139992 41439999 42160004 42599956
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Scattered
elevated thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the
Southeast tonight associated with the advancing shortwave trough.
Weak buoyancy should largely limit the severe risk.
To the west, isolated thunderstorms are also possible over portions
of northern coastal CA. Increasingly strong westerly flow aloft
could support an occasional stronger gust with an advancing frontal
rain band. But again, weak buoyancy will likely preclude a
greater-than sporadic severe threat through tonight.
..Lyons.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Scattered
elevated thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the
Southeast tonight associated with the advancing shortwave trough.
Weak buoyancy should largely limit the severe risk.
To the west, isolated thunderstorms are also possible over portions
of northern coastal CA. Increasingly strong westerly flow aloft
could support an occasional stronger gust with an advancing frontal
rain band. But again, weak buoyancy will likely preclude a
greater-than sporadic severe threat through tonight.
..Lyons.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of
the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day
Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL
Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the
coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will
limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production.
Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the
coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most
likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA
and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread
modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared
to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection.
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the
northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of
mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all
guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of
the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day
Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL
Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the
coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will
limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production.
Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the
coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most
likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA
and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread
modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared
to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection.
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the
northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of
mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all
guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on
Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern
trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the
Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US
longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture
will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this
trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once
again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest
Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds
should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on
Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern
trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the
Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US
longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture
will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this
trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once
again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest
Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds
should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening.
Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing
showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.
...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening.
Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing
showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.
...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.
..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.
..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.
This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.
Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).
...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.
This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.
Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).
...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.
This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.
Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).
...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the
South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley
mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the
broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least
low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude
shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the
week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of
this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to
interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf
into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates
severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus
suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West
late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level
southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.
Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the
lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion
of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs
on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the
South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley
mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the
broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least
low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude
shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the
week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of
this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to
interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf
into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates
severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus
suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West
late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level
southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.
Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the
lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion
of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs
on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the
South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley
mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the
broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least
low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude
shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the
week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of
this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to
interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf
into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates
severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus
suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West
late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level
southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.
Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the
lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion
of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs
on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
Read more
