MD 0014 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 091708Z - 092115Z
SUMMARY...Snowfall rates exceeding 1.0 inches/hour expected to
persist across southwestern Kansas through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snowfall exceeding 1.0 inches/hour is
currently occurring across portions of western/southwestern Kansas
in the presence of surface cold air advection and 700mb
frontogenesis. The expectation is for these moderate to heavy
snowfall rates to persist at least through 20Z this afternoon, when
HREF mean snowfall rates diminish substantially. Surface winds
between 10-20 MPH may result in intermittent periods of reduced
visibility.
..Halbert.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38600200 38750156 38790091 38699985 38269981 37469999
36980050 36910144 37050167 37470158 37890160 38150177
38480206 38600200
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across
central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the
period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving
frontal wave.
Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to
promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a
couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a
couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent
on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The
window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z -- before
low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing
frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened
severe potential.
Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the
Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet
and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the
surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
A vigorous 70-80 knot mid-level jet over the Permian Basin and TX
Panhandle will accompany an upper trough ejecting into the southern
High Plains through the afternoon, contributing to surface lee
troughing across eastern NM. Efficient boundary layer mixing under
mostly clear skies south of the surface trough and robust mid-level
flow will support downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph amid
15-20% relative humidity this afternoon across the Permian Basin
region. A swath of 20-25 mph west winds is expected from
southeastern NM into the TX Rolling Plains amid 15% RH, but recent
rainfall should mitigate fire weather threat, with elevated
highlights remaining to the south of higher antecedent moisture
conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to extend
into central TX/Hill Country this evening as surface flow
transitions to the northwest ahead of a looming secondary cold front
dropping south through Northwest TX. These meteorological conditions
should align with receptive fuels within a region that has seen
minimal rainfall in the last 30 days.
..Williams.. 01/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.
...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.
...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.
..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026
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MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana through portions
of southern and central Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091308Z - 091515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for an additional brief tornado and/or locally
damaging wind gusts is generally not expected to continue in the
near term. However, trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A couple of intensifying near-surface cyclonic
circulations have been recently observed within scattered ongoing
thunderstorm development. This appears to have coincided with
subtle surface warming and moistening sufficient to contribute to
weak boundary-layer based instability, based on forecast soundings
and the 12Z sounding from Jackson. But, this also appears to be
occurring as low-level hodographs shrink and trend more linear, in
the wake of the initial short wave trough now accelerating northeast
of the middle Mississippi Valley. As a result, potential for
further similar mesovortex intensification accompanied by the risk
for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind gusts seems likely to
diminish shortly, if it hasn't already.
..Kerr/Hart.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 33758928 33858826 32448857 30968940 30549056 30959106
31689024 32588979 33758928
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.
...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD
profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a
tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into
western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer
in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and
the overall severe risk.
...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much
of the southeastern United States today, with several small
perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is
currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass
southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to
scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe
storms capable of damaging winds and hail.
...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead
to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening
low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become
focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast
MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest
significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with
forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells
and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.
...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD
profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a
tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into
western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer
in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and
the overall severe risk.
...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much
of the southeastern United States today, with several small
perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is
currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass
southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to
scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe
storms capable of damaging winds and hail.
...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead
to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening
low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become
focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast
MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest
significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with
forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells
and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established
across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist
into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi
Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward
into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture
return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move
into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over
much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected
to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for
thunderstorm development.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established
across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist
into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi
Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward
into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture
return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move
into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over
much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected
to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for
thunderstorm development.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the eastern
Seaboard on Sunday, as northwest flow aloft becomes established
across much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the
south-central and southeastern U.S., keeping conditions relative dry
and stable over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the eastern
Seaboard on Sunday, as northwest flow aloft becomes established
across much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the
south-central and southeastern U.S., keeping conditions relative dry
and stable over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.
As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.
As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.
...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...
Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period
before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently,
this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a
northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.
Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from
western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue
sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave
will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by
early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low
advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the
day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front
across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley,
primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ.
While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in
the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains
toward southern MO.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance
downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition
near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary
concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase
in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL
overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear
will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a
considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic
warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher
instability air mass.
At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe
probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf
states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the
higher-instability air mass.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026
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