Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today. Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today. Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today. Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today. Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

MD 2285 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York and northern Massachusetts into central and northern Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 290240Z - 290745Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected across portions of New England through tonight, with at least .06 inch/3 hour accretion rates possible. The best chance for the highest accretion rates, particularly over the next 3-6 hours, would be over northern New England. DISCUSSION...Warm-air/moisture advection, within the 925-700 mb layer, is increasing over the northern Appalachians in response to an approaching, deepening surface cyclone and accompanying 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak. A broad shield of rainfall is overspreading a surface layer that has been and remains well below freezing in several locales. While warm-air advection aloft is strong, the displacement of the sub-freezing surface temperatures may not take place until after 3 AM EST. Heavier WAA-induced rainfall atop a persistent sub-freezing surface is quite favorable for appreciable ice accumulations over the next 6 hours. An ice storm is possible, with over .06/3 hour accumulation rates potentially becoming commonplace. The best chance for significant ice accumulations would be over parts of northern New England, closer to the international border. Here, At least moderate rain rates should fall into a sub-freezing surface layer the longest, with 32+ F surface temperatures approaching from the south, reaching this region much later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43187107 42647172 42517236 42437317 42477421 42687531 42897580 44127560 44687545 45027472 45107260 44957172 44287122 43187107 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more