Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

MD 2283 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...Central Minnesota into northern Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 282353Z - 290500Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to gradually increase through the evening across portions of the Upper Midwest. 30-40 mph sustained westerly winds will coincide with increasing snowfall rates, resulting in reduced visibility, perhaps below a quarter mile, in some instances. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis indicates that the surface low, currently at 993 mb and located over southern Lake Michigan, is continuing to deepen while gradually drifting to the northeast. In response to surface low intensification is a broadening and gradual strengthening of the west-northwesterly surface wind field within the low's northwestern quadrant. Surface observations show widespread 30+ mph sustained wind speeds across much of western MN into central IA. Meanwhile deep-layer cold air advection, and the advection of mid-level moisture around the surface low, is resulting in a broad band of snow pivoting around the low's northwestern quadrant. As a result, moderate to perhaps occasionally heavy snowfall rates will coincide with the 30+ mph west-northwesterly surface wind field, which may strengthen further in tandem with the low. Increasingly common blizzard conditions may manifest, with reduced visibility down to or below a quarter mile where the heavier snow bands and wind gusts may overlap. ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45619391 45769447 45819518 45589575 45089579 44559551 43319451 42079333 41909267 42159195 42609141 43149124 43629149 44089188 44729280 45619391 Read more

MD 2284 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 643... FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...central Indiana...western Kentucky and Tennessee...extreme southern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 643... Valid 290058Z - 290400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues. SUMMARY...Areas of damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado remain possible from central Indiana southwestward into the lower Ohio Valley. Sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as far south as western Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move rapidly east coincident with the cold front, with indications of QLCS storm mode at times. Convective trends may be dwindling across the far northern areas, as the line encounters a relatively cooler boundary layer. Farther south toward the OH River and toward western KY and TN, temperatures remain in the 70s F with lower 60s F dewpoints. This is generally resulting in MLCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. However, little instability is needed to persist the damaging wind threat as the line is strongly forced and with 50 kt around 1 km AGL. Low-level SRH is also strong with 0-1 km values to 400 m2/s2. Given the loss of heating and rapidly moving cold front, the severe storms risk is expected to last a few hours until the line pushes through the narrow instability axis. In the near term, the greatest risk areas continues to be within the tornado watch extending from central IN into western KY, and the watch may be locally extended in time or space as conditions warrant. ..Jewell.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36048994 37408883 38448738 39798622 40208580 40198535 39688521 38788545 37978603 36698737 35938842 35718910 35708968 35888995 36048994 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PAH TO 15 W OWB TO 45 NNE OWB TO 35 SE BMG TO 30 ENE MIE. ..JEWELL..12/29/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC031-071-079-117-135-139-147-290240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS ORANGE RANDOLPH RUSH SPENCER KYC033-059-107-143-149-233-290240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL DAVIESS HOPKINS LYON MCLEAN WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 643 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 282045Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Illinois Western and Central Indiana Western Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Lafayette IN to 5 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave, surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight. The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening, will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY. Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection, at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave, surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight. The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening, will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY. Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection, at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave, surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight. The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening, will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY. Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection, at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave, surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight. The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening, will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY. Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection, at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2025 Read more

MD 2280 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into northwest/northern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281840Z - 290045Z SUMMARY...Conditions will initially be marginal for heavier snowfall rates, but cooling temperatures at the surface and aloft will increase potential for snowfall rates to around 1 inch per hour. DISCUSSION...As the mid-level jet intensifies in the central Plains, a surface low continues to deepen in northern Illinois. Cold air advection is increasing within the upper Mississippi Valley in response. Furthermore, deep-layer lift is also increasing as evidenced by a broad area of precipitation moving into parts of northwest/northern Wisconsin. While temperatures in some areas have been just above freezing for most of the morning, recent surface observations have shown decreasing temperatures/dewpoints. Dynamic cooling within the heavier precipitation bands has also been evident. That said, snowfall should increase through the afternoon. Observations from Eau Claire and Hayward already show moderate snowfall occurring. As the atmospheric profile continues to cool, the environment should become more favorable for snowfall rates up to around 1 inch per hour through late afternoon/early evening. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46479079 46509029 46298948 46128922 45778928 44679108 44269186 44049236 43999277 44059292 44669282 45029257 45429221 46059139 46479079 Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE FAM TO 20 WSW MVN TO 30 S MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 N LAF TO 5 WSW SBN. ..JEWELL..12/28/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-023-025-033-035-045-047-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087- 101-121-127-145-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-290040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-045-049-051-053- 055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-081-083-085-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-129-131-133-135-139-145-147- 149-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-173-181-183-290040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2282 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 643... FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...Extreme southeast Missouri...southern and eastern Illinois...and western Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 643... Valid 282149Z - 282315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for occasional damaging gusts and tornadoes with embedded circulations will continue as storms consolidate and spread eastward across Illinois toward Indiana. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a line of thunderstorms has consolidated along the cold front moving quickly eastward across Illinois. A corridor of weak buoyancy precedes the front, where surface temperatures peaked in the mid 60s to lower 70s, in the presence of lower 60s dewpoints. Recent observations from KILX revealed a tornadic debris signature southeast-through-east of Decatur, IL, with a circulation embedded in the line. Additional tornadoes will be possible given the long, low-level hodographs and substantial (200-300 m2/s2) SRH in the storm inflow, within a sufficiently moist and weakly unstable pre-storm environment. Additional storm development is expected farther south along the front toward extreme southeast MO and southern IL over the next 1-2 hours. Though the loss of surface heating will result in a gradual reduction in buoyancy with eastward extent, strong wind profiles will help maintain the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging gusts into late evening. ..Thompson.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 40498806 41168761 41238685 40968628 39858691 38848759 37878829 37198907 37038965 37149002 37898975 39228889 40498806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2280 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into northwest/northern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281840Z - 290045Z SUMMARY...Conditions will initially be marginal for heavier snowfall rates, but cooling temperatures at the surface and aloft will increase potential for snowfall rates to around 1 inch per hour. DISCUSSION...As the mid-level jet intensifies in the central Plains, a surface low continues to deepen in northern Illinois. Cold air advection is increasing within the upper Mississippi Valley in response. Furthermore, deep-layer lift is also increasing as evidenced by a broad area of precipitation moving into parts of northwest/northern Wisconsin. While temperatures in some areas have been just above freezing for most of the morning, recent surface observations have shown decreasing temperatures/dewpoints. Dynamic cooling within the heavier precipitation bands has also been evident. That said, snowfall should increase through the afternoon. Observations from Eau Claire and Hayward already show moderate snowfall occurring. As the atmospheric profile continues to cool, the environment should become more favorable for snowfall rates up to around 1 inch per hour through late afternoon/early evening. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46479079 46509029 46298948 46128922 45778928 44679108 44269186 44049236 43999277 44059292 44669282 45029257 45429221 46059139 46479079 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from run-to-run. ... Southern Plains ... A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east, winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements will be needed in subsequent forecasts. Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any day are too low to warrant highlights. ... Southeast US ... A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday. Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures, with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out of the 30s. On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However, northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to relax. This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent forecasts. The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave trough. ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from run-to-run. ... Southern Plains ... A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east, winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements will be needed in subsequent forecasts. Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any day are too low to warrant highlights. ... Southeast US ... A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday. Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures, with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out of the 30s. On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However, northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to relax. This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent forecasts. The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave trough. ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from run-to-run. ... Southern Plains ... A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east, winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements will be needed in subsequent forecasts. Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any day are too low to warrant highlights. ... Southeast US ... A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday. Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures, with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out of the 30s. On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However, northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to relax. This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent forecasts. The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave trough. ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from run-to-run. ... Southern Plains ... A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east, winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements will be needed in subsequent forecasts. Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any day are too low to warrant highlights. ... Southeast US ... A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday. Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures, with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out of the 30s. On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However, northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to relax. This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent forecasts. The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave trough. ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ALN TO 30 SW DEC TO 20 WNW CMI TO 40 ESE MMO. ..WENDT..12/28/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-019-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-053- 055-059-065-069-075-077-079-081-087-091-101-121-127-135-139-145- 147-151-153-157-159-165-173-181-183-185-189-191-193-199- 282240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN IROQUOIS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON KANKAKEE LAWRENCE MARION MASSAC MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY UNION VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more