SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
The ongoing forecast and meteorological reasoning remains largely on
track. The biggest change was trim areas along the northwest and
north-central of the elevated where temperatures have already fallen
into the 30s, which will temper minimum relative humidity across
these areas. Elsewhere, strong gusty winds and relative humidity in
the 20-30% range will support elevated fire weather conditions.
..Marsh.. 12/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/28/2025
Read more
MD 2277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri into central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281316Z - 281515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated, small to marginally severe hail may accompany
the stronger storms that evolve this morning.
DISCUSSION...Along the northern periphery of the evolving warm
sector and ahead of a developing surface low over eastern KS, a
broad plume of low-level warm advection will continue shifting
eastward while supporting isolated to widely scattered elevated
thunderstorms from northeastern MO into central IL this morning.
Here, an influx of steeper midlevel lapse rates from the southwest
(see TOP 12Z sounding) and modest low-level moistening amid a
relatively cool boundary layer will contribute to increasing (albeit
weak) elevated buoyancy (around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This, combined
with around 40-50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely
organized elevated storms -- posing a risk of small to marginally
severe hail and possibly locally strong gusts through the morning
hours. The overall severe risk is expected to remain
isolated/transient along this corridor this morning, with the
greater severe risk expected farther south later today.
..Weinman/Smith.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39659083 39479164 39549231 39829261 40219260 40419237
41198939 41258864 41058820 40778807 40438817 40198843
39908994 39659083
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis
consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and
yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
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