SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 2260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and
western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181644Z - 181845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward
through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage
across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western
Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited
thermodynamic environment.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized,
but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong
synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing
minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few
kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow
for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front.
Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP
depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix
to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning
production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts
appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already
been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic
environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the
afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity.
..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115
36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034
40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated
strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the
Carolinas late tonight.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and
spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight
over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls
on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will
accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds
within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm
sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the
front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager
instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of
frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later
this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,
but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the
Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of
Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively
enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.
...Carolinas...
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through
the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an
increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust
strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and
modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,
and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,
albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based
destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal
areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also
possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland
(including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated
strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the
Carolinas late tonight.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and
spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight
over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls
on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will
accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds
within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm
sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the
front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager
instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of
frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later
this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,
but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the
Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of
Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively
enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.
...Carolinas...
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through
the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an
increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust
strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and
modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,
and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,
albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based
destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal
areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also
possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland
(including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern
CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast.
After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow
rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the
Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result
in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this
period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in
a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern
CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast.
After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow
rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the
Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result
in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this
period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in
a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern
CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast.
After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow
rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the
Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result
in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this
period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in
a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and
far northwest Oregon on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday
morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the
Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the
Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back
into East Texas by early Sunday morning.
...East Texas into Louisiana...
Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints
northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday
evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to
develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft
and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show
warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass
capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas
and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday.
...Pacific Northwest..
Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in
persistent convective activity across western Washington and
northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak
instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which
may support some isolated thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and
far northwest Oregon on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday
morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the
Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the
Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back
into East Texas by early Sunday morning.
...East Texas into Louisiana...
Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints
northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday
evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to
develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft
and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show
warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass
capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas
and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday.
...Pacific Northwest..
Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in
persistent convective activity across western Washington and
northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak
instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which
may support some isolated thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.
...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from
Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.
In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.
...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from
Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.
In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.
...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from
Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.
In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind
gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.
...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the
northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is
forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject
negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period.
Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across
the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along
a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor
destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast
soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an
elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band
of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given
the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even
so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the
convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt
appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind
gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.
...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the
northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is
forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject
negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period.
Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across
the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along
a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor
destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast
soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an
elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band
of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given
the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even
so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the
convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt
appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind
gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.
...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the
northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is
forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject
negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period.
Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across
the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along
a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor
destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast
soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an
elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band
of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given
the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even
so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the
convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt
appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025
Read more
