SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain
possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...01z Update...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this
evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into
southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift
across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic
trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar
data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal
convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern
sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is
convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS
into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater
buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000
J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this
instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east
across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will
remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening.
Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues.
Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks
region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk.
..Darrow.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain
possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...01z Update...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this
evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into
southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift
across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic
trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar
data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal
convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern
sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is
convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS
into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater
buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000
J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this
instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east
across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will
remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening.
Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues.
Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks
region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk.
..Darrow.. 12/19/2025
Read more
MD 2262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northern
Mississippi...western Tennessee...western Kentucky...and southern
Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182148Z - 182345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible as convection
along a strong cold front pushes east across the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley and lower Ohio River Valley. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection along a strong cold front has started to
show a gradual uptick in intensity across eastern AR into MS/TN per
recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. This comes as the cold
front begins to impinge on a narrow plume of returning moisture into
the MS Valley characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low
60s. Latest RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE has increased to around
500 J/kg as far north as the I-40 corridor in northeast AR/western
TN, which should support further intensification over the next few
hours. While thunderstorm intensity will generally be modulated by
the meager buoyancy/poor lapse rates, a very strong low-level
kinematic environment (40-50 knot winds are noted in regional VWPs
within the 0-1 km layer) will support the potential for damaging
gusts.
One 50 knot gust was recently observed at KHKA in far northeast AR,
but velocity imagery from KPAH and KNQA shows only embedded swaths
of stronger winds within the line. This suggests that the wind
threat should remain fairly localized to narrow corridors. While the
potential for damaging winds will be greatest across AR/MS/TN within
the axis of appreciable mixed-layer buoyancy, sporadic damaging
winds are possible with northward extent into western KY and
southern IN. Given the limited thermodynamic environment, the
overall intensity of the developing QLCS should remain sufficiently
low to preclude watch issuance.
Additionally, weak convective cells within a pre-frontal trough
across central/north-central MS are being monitored. These cells are
developing within the axis of MLCAPE and where low-level SRH is
fairly strong (approximately 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). While confidence
is low in whether these cells will intensify due to weaker forcing
for ascent and the meager thermodynamic environment, a wind/tornado
threat could materialize if sufficient intensification can take
place.
..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...
LZK...
LAT...LON 33688883 33048927 32938967 32969009 33039039 33489141
33779182 33959198 34129205 35399048 37058912 38668799
39198774 39418737 39368654 39268600 39028585 38628589
38118594 37488620 37028653 33688883
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MS...WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle
TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 182236Z - 190000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two
appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should
spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through
mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered.
DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has
increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal
confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north
to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and
behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE
from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening.
Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells
developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic
supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens
later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL.
..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907
32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 2261 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...Southern Minnesota
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 182023Z - 190030Z
SUMMARY...Patchy blizzard conditions are spreading southeast into
south-central Minnesota and may persist for several hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations from across south-central
MN have begun to report visibility reductions of 1/2 to 1/4 mile
under a swath of light snowfall. Traffic and snow plow cameras show
areas of substantial visibility reductions, estimated to be down to
1/10 mile at times. Widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts continue across
the region and will support similar visibility reductions under any
areas with even light snowfall rates. Recent high-res guidance
suggests that winds may peak over the next hour before gradually
diminishing through the evening hours; however, gusts between 30-45
mph will likely continue for the next several hours with a
continuation of light snowfall within the mid-level TROWAL region of
the maturing cyclone. As such, areas of transient blizzard
conditions will likely continue through early/mid-evening.
..Moore.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43519467 43739507 44069549 44599562 45079552 45289519
45349479 45279435 44449302 44159292 43889295 43639312
43509330 43429355 43409402 43519467
Read more
WW 642 TORNADO AL MS 182305Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Northern Alabama
Eastern Mississippi
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to continue to mature and
move east-northeast within a moist and strongly sheared environment
across the Watch area. Gradual destabilization will occur
immediately ahead of the storm activity this evening. The primary
threats accompanying the stronger storms will be damaging gusts and
the possibility for a couple of tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Huntsville
AL to 70 miles south southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Smith
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with
ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow
aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level
troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This
stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on
portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week.
Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for
the forecast period.
...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity...
West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas
into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may
extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary
layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range
forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in
the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no
precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with
the frontal passage.
...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains...
Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains
early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on
the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets
pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day
5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the
downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this
week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated
conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over
multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled
with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day
event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities
likely needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with
ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow
aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level
troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This
stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on
portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week.
Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for
the forecast period.
...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity...
West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas
into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may
extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary
layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range
forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in
the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no
precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with
the frontal passage.
...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains...
Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains
early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on
the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets
pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day
5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the
downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this
week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated
conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over
multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled
with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day
event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities
likely needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS COASTAL
NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...MS/OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast...
The primary changes to the Marginal Risk have been to clear areas
behind the low-topped convective line and cold front, and to expand
northeastward somewhat based on where recent HRRR/RRFS guidance
maintains a low-topped but well-defined frontal band with potential
for localized strong/damaging gusts.
A line of low-topped convection has developed along a cold front and
is moving eastward across parts of IL and southeast MO this
afternoon. Despite very weak to negligible buoyancy, very strong
low-level flow/shear (with 50+ kt at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs) has
supported occasional gusts of 40-55 mph and isolated wind-damage
reports along this line. Forcing related to a strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the region will help
to sustain a low-topped frontal band into this evening, which may be
capable of producing sporadic strong/damaging gusts into parts of
the Ohio Valley.
Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that gusty winds associated with the
frontal band may spread across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
overnight, but with essentially nil buoyancy expected in this area,
confidence is currently too low to expand wind probabilities into
this area.
Farther south into parts of TN/MS/AL, somewhat greater (though still
weak) buoyancy will be in place later this afternoon into the early
evening, as 60s F dewpoints spread northward to near the TN/MS/AL
border region. A broken band of storms may develop in advance of the
front, with potential for at least marginal supercell structures and
an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and possibly a
tornado. Any longer-lived cells may tend to merge into the
eastward-moving frontal band with time, with at least an isolated
severe threat spreading east across TN through the evening.
...Coastal NC...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across coastal
NC. See the previous discussion below for more information.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Cells with occasional rotation have been noted offshore of the FL
Panhandle this afternoon, though temperatures remain relatively cool
with widespread cloudiness inland. There is some potential for a
stronger cell or two to eventually approach the coast or develop
slightly inland, but lingering near-surface stability may tend to
limit the severe threat across this area.
..Dean.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025/
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS COASTAL
NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...MS/OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast...
The primary changes to the Marginal Risk have been to clear areas
behind the low-topped convective line and cold front, and to expand
northeastward somewhat based on where recent HRRR/RRFS guidance
maintains a low-topped but well-defined frontal band with potential
for localized strong/damaging gusts.
A line of low-topped convection has developed along a cold front and
is moving eastward across parts of IL and southeast MO this
afternoon. Despite very weak to negligible buoyancy, very strong
low-level flow/shear (with 50+ kt at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs) has
supported occasional gusts of 40-55 mph and isolated wind-damage
reports along this line. Forcing related to a strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the region will help
to sustain a low-topped frontal band into this evening, which may be
capable of producing sporadic strong/damaging gusts into parts of
the Ohio Valley.
Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that gusty winds associated with the
frontal band may spread across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
overnight, but with essentially nil buoyancy expected in this area,
confidence is currently too low to expand wind probabilities into
this area.
Farther south into parts of TN/MS/AL, somewhat greater (though still
weak) buoyancy will be in place later this afternoon into the early
evening, as 60s F dewpoints spread northward to near the TN/MS/AL
border region. A broken band of storms may develop in advance of the
front, with potential for at least marginal supercell structures and
an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and possibly a
tornado. Any longer-lived cells may tend to merge into the
eastward-moving frontal band with time, with at least an isolated
severe threat spreading east across TN through the evening.
...Coastal NC...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across coastal
NC. See the previous discussion below for more information.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Cells with occasional rotation have been noted offshore of the FL
Panhandle this afternoon, though temperatures remain relatively cool
with widespread cloudiness inland. There is some potential for a
stronger cell or two to eventually approach the coast or develop
slightly inland, but lingering near-surface stability may tend to
limit the severe threat across this area.
..Dean.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025/
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in
Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into
southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds
(sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%,
and this being the third day in the past week with similar
conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions
are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the
Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado.
The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix
of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally
critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is
inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If
forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a
critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and
another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the
Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and
shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another
strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on
Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and
Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could
occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New
Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind
event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence
in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will
generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible.
Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty.
Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated
to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface
trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced
winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind
gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in
Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into
southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds
(sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%,
and this being the third day in the past week with similar
conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions
are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the
Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado.
The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix
of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally
critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is
inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If
forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a
critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and
another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the
Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and
shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another
strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on
Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and
Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could
occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New
Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind
event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence
in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will
generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible.
Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty.
Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated
to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface
trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced
winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind
gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.
At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.
Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.
At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.
Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
MD 2259 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WEST AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...The Eastern Dakotas into west and northwest
Minnesota
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 181509Z - 182015Z
SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to continue across parts
of the eastern Dakotas and into parts of west/northwest MN through
early/mid afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams from southeast
SD northward through the Red River Valley of the north show
widespread visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less with some areas
experiencing white out conditions - especially across northeast ND
into northwest MN where moderate to heavy snowfall rates are
contributing to the visibility reductions under a developing snow
band. Heading through the afternoon, the strongest push of low-level
cold advection should migrate from the eastern Dakotas into southern
MN/northern IA. Although the heaviest snowfall will likely shift
eastward into northern MN through the day, light snow and persistent
strong northerly winds will continue to support blizzard conditions
through the Red River Valley through at least mid-afternoon and
possibly until around 00z. Further south/southeast, the antecedent
snow pack is not as widespread compared to locations further north,
but a combination of light to moderate snowfall and intense surface
winds (gusting between 40-50 mph) will likely contribute to areas of
blizzard conditions into west/southwest MN.
..Moore.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45379439 44949441 44709454 44459491 44249551 44169600
44199677 44309723 44579749 45039785 45599814 45949836
46839890 48129916 48699904 48959878 49069819 49059675
49029527 48549520 47799538 47109550 46189521 45379439
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.
...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.
...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
