SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Within a post-cold-front regime, strong northwesterly winds will
overspread parts of the central/southern Plains on Thursday. Colder
air will filter southward, but this should be lagging behind the
front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Despite cold air advection through the day, generally clear skies
and dry air will promote RH reductions in the 20-30% range. Farther
west, into the High Plains, 15-20% RH will be possible. Guidance
does show a fair amount of variability with regard to surface
temperatures during the afternoon, especially with northern extent.
However, sustained winds/gusts will tend to be strongest in the
central Plains with weaker winds with southward extent. With fine
fuels showing sufficient dryness in some areas and the winds being
near or just above critical thresholds, elevated fire weather can be
expected from Kansas into North Texas. These conditions may extend
farther south and west, but combinations of questionable fuels and
duration limit confidence in expanding highlights into these areas.
..Wendt.. 12/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent upper trough will move through the Northwest and reach the
Plains by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in
the northern Plains with a trough extending into the
central/southern Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level winds will be nearly perpendicular to the Rockies.
This, coupled with a strong cross-Divide pressure gradient, will
foster strong sustained winds and stronger gusts in the immediate
lee of the terrain. Sustained 20-30 mph winds will be probable in
the terrain-favored areas. A period of wind gusts to 60-70 mph are
expected in the lower foothills. Farther east and south, 15-20 mph
will become more common. RH will be above elevated criteria in many
places, but 15-25% will be possible from Wyoming into Colorado.
Farther south, RH will more likely be around 15-20%. With fuels
having continued to dry, the strong surface winds will still lead to
elevated to locally critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...
Dry and modestly breezy conditions appear possible within the region
during the afternoon. RH could fall as low as 20-25%, but there is
variability within guidance. Winds will generally be light at around
10 mph. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but the
duration/spatial extent is too limited and uncertain for highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe gusts may accompany low-topped convection across
parts of the Northwest this morning into midday.
...Northwest...
A vigorous shortwave trough will move quickly east along the
Canadian border from WA to the northern Great Plains by evening.
Intense tropospheric flow will accompany this wave, yielding
widespread high winds across much of the Northwest to the northern
Great Plains. Deep lee surface cyclone over southern AB should reach
the Red River Valley of the North. Attendant Pacific cold front will
sweep east with a tight pressure gradient in its wake.
Low-topped convection may be ongoing at 12Z along the Columbia Basin
portion of the front. Most guidance also suggests an increase in
low-topped convection should occur towards late morning across parts
of the Snake River Plain as the front pushes east. Surface-based
instability will remain scant in both regimes with morning
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Despite the cool temperatures,
this may be sufficient for sporadic lightning flashes amid strong
large-scale ascent. With very strong surface winds accompanying the
front, both regimes could be coincident with severe wind gusts.
The bulk of sustained severe wind speeds should become primarily
confined along/east of the Rockies in MT to the CO Front Range this
afternoon per HREF/REFS guidance. However, potential for severe
convective gusts appears too conditional with negligible
surface-based buoyancy anticipated.
..Grams/Wendt.. 12/17/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of the
Plains and southern High Plains through the second-half of the work
week and into the upcoming weekend. Latest long-range guidance shows
remarkable good agreement in the medium to long-range synoptic
regime evolution, depicting a transition from an active zonal flow
regime this week/weekend into broad-scale ridging across the
south-central CONUS by early next week. This pattern shift will
favor rain/snow chances for much of country except the Southwest
into much of the southern Plains where rainfall deficits are
steadily deepening and fuels are slowly drying.
...D3/Thursday - Central/southern Plains...
A strong cyclone is forecast to develop across the northern Plains
on D2/Wednesday before shifting into the upper Great Lakes region by
late D3/Thursday. A trailing cold front will push southeast across
the Plains through the afternoon, reaching the MS Valley by evening.
Vigorous low-level cold advection within the post-frontal air mass,
coupled with a strong low-level mass response in proximity to the
intensifying cyclone, will support widespread 15-25 mph
north/northwesterly winds from western KS and northwest OK into MO.
While there remains some spread regarding the coverage of the
strongest winds, the general guidance consensus is that conditions
will be dry/windy enough behind the front to support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions over a region with drying fine
fuels.
...D4/Friday - Southeast Wyoming...
A second upper disturbance is forecast to progress across the
northern Rockies early D4/Friday. This will support an intensifying
surface low over the northern Plains with an accompanying low-level
mass response over the High Plains. The combination of the
strengthening low/lee trough and zonal mid-level flow over the
terrain will support another downslope wind event in the lee of the
Laramie Mountains in southeast WY. Long-range guidance suggests
sustained winds of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH minimums in
the teens to low 20s. Preceding dry/windy days this week will help
precondition fuels and support a fire weather threat on Friday.
...D4/Friday and D5/Saturday - southern Plains...
Surface high pressure will quickly shift east into the lower MS
Valley by early D4/Friday morning just as a northern High Plains
cyclone intensifies. The combination of southwesterly flow on the
periphery of the surface high combined with falling surface pressure
over the northern/central Plains will induce a breezy and dry return
flow regime over portions of TX and OK. The signal for 15-25 mph
winds has remained consistent between deterministic solutions over
the past 24 hours, and ensemble guidance has begun to show better
consensus for 20+ mph winds across northwest TX to northwest OK
Friday afternoon. Given the gradual drying trend of fuels and the
tendency for guidance to over-forecast RH minimums within these
regimes, fire weather concerns appear probable Friday afternoon.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely persist across parts of TX on
D5/Saturday ahead of a southward moving cold front. Westerly flow
emanating out of the southern High Plains will maintain dry
conditions, and ensemble guidance hints at wind speeds approaching
20 mph. Uncertainty persists regarding the placement/progression of
the cold front by Saturday afternoon, and guidance tends to depict
slower frontal intrusions than reality. Because of this, adjustments
of the risk probabilities are expected as model consensus continues
to improve.
..Moore.. 12/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight into early Wednesday
morning.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will
amplify today and reach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight.
This trough will be accompanied by an enhanced deep-layer wind
field, with 90-100+ kt winds at 500 mb and around 50-80 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. Low-level moisture should also gradually
increase tonight ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Low-topped convection may accompany the front, initially approaching
the WA Coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday.
Surface-based buoyancy will remain quite meager due to poor lapse
rates aloft and the time of night. Still, rather strong low-level
gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as
the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and occasional strong
to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of this
low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level
winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours Wednesday. However, it remains quite
uncertain if these convectively enhanced winds will be substantially
stronger than the background gradient wind field. Therefore, the
Marginal Risk has been maintained with no changes.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight into early Wednesday
morning.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will
amplify today and reach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight.
This trough will be accompanied by an enhanced deep-layer wind
field, with 90-100+ kt winds at 500 mb and around 50-80 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. Low-level moisture should also gradually
increase tonight ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Low-topped convection may accompany the front, initially approaching
the WA Coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday.
Surface-based buoyancy will remain quite meager due to poor lapse
rates aloft and the time of night. Still, rather strong low-level
gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as
the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and occasional strong
to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of this
low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level
winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours Wednesday. However, it remains quite
uncertain if these convectively enhanced winds will be substantially
stronger than the background gradient wind field. Therefore, the
Marginal Risk has been maintained with no changes.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley
on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it
moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong
cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across
the OH and TN Valleys.
At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and
reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.
Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as
far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the
ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit
heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.
However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least
result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low
even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft
will be warmer.
Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during
the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow
off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with
activity along the cold front.
..Jewell.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley
on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it
moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong
cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across
the OH and TN Valleys.
At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and
reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.
Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as
far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the
ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit
heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.
However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least
result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low
even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft
will be warmer.
Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during
the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow
off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with
activity along the cold front.
..Jewell.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
required - mainly to better align the Elevated risk area with where
downslope winds are forecast to be the strongest within CO Front
Range. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for
very strong (60-75 mph) wind gusts within the immediate eastern
slopes of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY and along the
northern and central Front Range. RH reductions within this regime
remain somewhat uncertain with ensemble guidance showing only a weak
signal for sub-20% RH for northern and central CO. However, the
magnitude of the winds coupled with drying fine fuels may compensate
for the marginal RH values and support the potential for fire
spread, warranting the westward expansion. A southward expansion
along the Sacramento Mountains in NM was also made where downslope
warming/drying should promote RH reductions into the 15-20% range as
winds increase to 15-20 mph during the late afternoon hours. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on
Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to
the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the
northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern
High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but
given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are
possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be
at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more
confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for
most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within
terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even
higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire
weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel
receptiveness.
...Southern High Plains...
RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures
should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be
relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be
most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated
meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited
risk for ignitions/spread at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over much of the northern
Rockies on Wednesday, with a greater probability across the Texas
Coastal Plain. Sporadic activity may also occur Wednesday night into
the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and cold front will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with substantial
cooling aloft and strong winds. Daytime heating will lead to areas
of weak instability, with scattered lightning possible especially
over ID and western MT/WY. Overnight, a strong cold front will surge
south across the Great Plains, and sporadic lightning may occur with
elevated/weak convection.
Southeast of this system, a low-latitude wave will be located over
southern TX, with cool midlevel temperatures present. This will aid
destabilization despite relatively cool surface temperatures.
Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the Coastal Plain and
perhaps toward the ArkLaTex late, however, given the surface high to
the east, low-level trajectories will favor cool surface
temperatures and elevated instability in most areas.
..Jewell.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
A trio of targeted Elevated risk areas has been introduced for
portions of the central to southern High Plains. Several days of dry
conditions with intermittent downslope flow has allowed for steady
fine fuel drying along the High Plains with ERCs increasing to the
65-75th percentiles for portions of eastern CO and NM. The continued
deepening of a surface trough over the Plains today will induce
strengthening winds through the afternoon with some regions
experiencing sustained winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 30 mph at
times). 16 UTC surface observations show RH reductions already
trending lower than anticipated by morning guidance ahead of and
behind lingering cloud cover. With further RH reductions (into the
15-25% range) likely amid daytime heating, areas of elevated fire
weather conditions appear probable for at least a few hours this
afternoon. The most favorable overlap of drying fuels, strong winds,
and dry conditions should reside across southeast WY/northeast CO,
southeast CO into northeast NM, and portions of southeast NM.
..Moore.. 12/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/
...Synopsis...
As a strong upper trough moves into the Northwest, the upper ridge
across much of the CONUS will begin to flatten today. Surface high
pressure will generally remain in the Southeast. A weak surface
trough/front will move eastward through the Plains. Some locally dry
and breezy conditions are possible in the central/southern High
Plains. Wind speeds will be marginal outside of a few
terrain-favored zones. Locally elevated conditions could occur, but
greater fire weather concerns are not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing from portions of the
Northeast into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Friday morning. If
sufficient destabilization can occur, a few isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible before the front moves offshore. In the wake
of this cold front, an extended period of low severe potential
begins. By Saturday afternoon, moisture is forecast to advect inland
across East Texas and Louisiana, but no thunderstorm activity is
expected. 60s dewpoints will remain along the Gulf Coast from Texas
to inland Louisiana and Mississippi through the weekend and into
early next week. However, building heights aloft will limit
thunderstorm potential for much of the extended. Even if some
thunderstorms occur early next week, as indicated by the 00Z ECMWF
across MS/TN, they will likely remain south of the stronger
mid-level flow and without strong destabilization, will be unlikely
to be severe.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.
...OH/TN Valleys...
A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold
front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold
front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints
will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the
snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture
advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a
zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only
marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective
line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will
support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.
Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.
...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina
and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the
region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind
threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree
of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly
the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with
60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some
threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with
minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region
in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast
trends towards greater instability.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.
...OH/TN Valleys...
A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold
front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold
front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints
will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the
snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture
advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a
zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only
marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective
line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will
support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.
Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.
...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina
and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the
region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind
threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree
of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly
the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with
60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some
threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with
minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region
in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast
trends towards greater instability.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the
Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the
day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British
Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low
will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern
Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast
through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening
and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.
...Northern Rockies Vicinity...
A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold
front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern
Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with
additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the
line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a
very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty
winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary
limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.
...Midwest...
Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the
Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2
period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the
rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but
sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z
Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent
within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated
instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development
between 06Z and 12Z.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the
Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the
day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British
Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low
will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern
Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast
through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening
and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.
...Northern Rockies Vicinity...
A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold
front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern
Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with
additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the
line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a
very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty
winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary
limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.
...Midwest...
Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the
Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2
period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the
rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but
sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z
Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent
within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated
instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development
between 06Z and 12Z.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on
Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to
the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the
northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern
High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but
given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are
possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be
at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more
confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for
most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within
terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even
higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire
weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel
receptiveness.
...Southern High Plains...
RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures
should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be
relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be
most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated
meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited
risk for ignitions/spread at this time.
..Wendt.. 12/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on
Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to
the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the
northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern
High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but
given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are
possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be
at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more
confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for
most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within
terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even
higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire
weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel
receptiveness.
...Southern High Plains...
RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures
should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be
relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be
most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated
meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited
risk for ignitions/spread at this time.
..Wendt.. 12/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
