Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As a strong upper trough moves into the Northwest, the upper ridge across much of the CONUS will begin to flatten today. Surface high pressure will generally remain in the Southeast. A weak surface trough/front will move eastward through the Plains. Some locally dry and breezy conditions are possible in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds will be marginal outside of a few terrain-favored zones. Locally elevated conditions could occur, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Wendt.. 12/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic severe gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight before shifting inland over WA during the early morning Wednesday. A deepening surface cyclone will move across southern BC towards southwest AB, with a Pacific cold front trailing south-southwestward. Low-topped convection is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the WA coast by late evening. Surface-based buoyancy will remain meager, but strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and strong to severe gusts may accompany passage of this low-topped squall before it subsides inland in western WA/OR. Intense lower-level flow will likely peak in the overnight to early morning hours. Buoyancy should remain quite limited along and east of the Cascades, but most guidance indicates broken low-topped convection should spread east along/ahead of the front amid pronounced large-scale ascent. Background gradient winds will likely be capable of producing severe gusts, and some of these may be coincident with sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams/Wendt.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... Thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over southwest OR have fully decayed in the past couple hours. A lone storm or two will be possible tonight within the persistent, but modest low-level warm conveyor that will shift farther inland to the northern Rockies. With flimsy elevated buoyancy expected (MUCAPE at or below 100 J/kg), overall thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. A few lightning flashes were also detected in the last hour across northwest WA near a shortwave trough, that will rapidly progress east across far southern AB/SK tonight. This thunder threat is expected to remain very isolated and diminish east of the Cascades. ..Grams.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... Thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over southwest OR have fully decayed in the past couple hours. A lone storm or two will be possible tonight within the persistent, but modest low-level warm conveyor that will shift farther inland to the northern Rockies. With flimsy elevated buoyancy expected (MUCAPE at or below 100 J/kg), overall thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. A few lightning flashes were also detected in the last hour across northwest WA near a shortwave trough, that will rapidly progress east across far southern AB/SK tonight. This thunder threat is expected to remain very isolated and diminish east of the Cascades. ..Grams.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through the work week and into the weekend across the south-central CONUS, though uncertainty remains high regarding which days/areas will see the greatest fire weather threat. Latest long-range guidance continues to trend towards an amplifying upper wave over the central U.S. Late Wednesday into Thursday with an attendant cyclone intensifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes region. A second, though lower amplitude, upper trough will progress across the country late Friday into Saturday, supporting a second surface low developing during the same period. These two systems will support rain/snow chances across much of the country with the exception of the Southwest and southern Plains where dry conditions will prevail. ...D3/Wednesday to D6/Saturday - Southern High Plains/Plains... The fuel landscape is expected to gradually improve through the work week as temperatures warm to the 75-90th percentiles of seasonal normal and promote steady drying of dead/dormant fine fuels. The intensification of a surface low over the northern High Plains on D3/Wed will promote strengthening southwesterly winds across the central to southern High Plains. Antecedent dry conditions coupled with increasing winds should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions across northeast NM to southeast CO. 40% risk probabilities have been introduced where ensemble agreement shows the highest potential for a prolonged fire weather threat. A cold front is forecast to push into the central/southern Plains through D4/Thursday. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the front with some reduction in RH likely within the post-frontal air mass across southern KS into OK and northwest TX. While some guidance, notably recent runs of the GFS, show widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions, other solutions are less bullish on the overlap of 20+ mph winds and sub-25% RH. Although the potential for critical conditions is noted, the disparity between deterministic solutions and weak ensemble signals limit confidence in this potential. A rapid return to a southerly dry return flow regime is expected by D5/Friday across the southern Plains as a surface low intensifies over the Dakotas. A cold frontal passage is anticipated on D6/Saturday with dry/windy conditions possible within the pre-frontal air mass. 15-20 mph winds appear probable both days across eastern NM into northwest TX, OK and southern KS, through large spread regarding RH reductions within both regimes is noted. As with D4/Thursday, poor agreement in wind speed/RH reductions among deterministic guidance and weak ensemble signals suggest the predictability of the fire weather threats on either day remains limited at this range. ..Moore.. 12/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms inland. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 15 19:36:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 15 19:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited potential for widespread fire weather concerns expected across the country for Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to depict dry conditions across the Southeast, but weak winds are expected under a surface high. Localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop within the immediate lee of the CO Front Range and the Sacramento Mountains in NM; however, modest synoptic winds will limit the coverage of elevated meteorological conditions over a region with marginally dry fuels. ..Moore.. 12/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains. There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains limited for today. Dry conditions are noted across portions of the Southeast where RH values are falling into the low 30s. While dry conditions will continue, a combination of weak winds and recent rainfall should mitigate more substantial fire concerns. Elsewhere, localized elevated conditions appear likely within the immediate lee of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY, but as with yesterday, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to move into the Southeast today. Some dry and breezy return flow is possible in the southern Plains, but cool temperatures/higher RH will also be present. The most likely location for localized fire weather concerns will be east of the terrain in southeastern Wyoming. There, downslope warming and breezy conditions supported by a weak lee trough and modest mid-level flow will promote potentially elevated conditions. However, the duration/intensity of those conditions is too much in doubt for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms inland. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive shortwave trough and a 100+ kt mid-level speed max will progress eastward and inland across Washington/British Columbia by later this afternoon and evening. A few lightning flashes could occur for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest relatively early today via weak elevated buoyancy within the warm conveyor preceding the shortwave trough/cold front. Mid-level temperatures will subsequently cool in the post-frontal environment, but the potential for sufficiently deep convection through lightning-conducive levels/temperatures should remain marginal later today, thus limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive shortwave trough and a 100+ kt mid-level speed max will progress eastward and inland across Washington/British Columbia by later this afternoon and evening. A few lightning flashes could occur for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest relatively early today via weak elevated buoyancy within the warm conveyor preceding the shortwave trough/cold front. Mid-level temperatures will subsequently cool in the post-frontal environment, but the potential for sufficiently deep convection through lightning-conducive levels/temperatures should remain marginal later today, thus limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast... Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability. ...D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast... Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period. ...D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast... Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast... Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability. ...D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast... Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period. ...D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast... Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential. However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks. This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening. After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential. However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks. This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening. After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning. ...Pacific Northwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line of convection is expected to develop along the front as it approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface. This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time. Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas. ..Bentley.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning. ...Pacific Northwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line of convection is expected to develop along the front as it approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface. This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time. Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas. ..Bentley.. 12/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains. There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited for highlights. ..Wendt.. 12/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more