SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold
air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy
conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty
northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the
Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures
and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather
concerns will remain low.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Surface front has surged into central TX, arcing across northern LA
into central MS early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this boundary over east TX and across northern
IL. This activity should gradually increase in areal coverage as the
front advances toward the northwest Gulf Coast. 00z soundings from
SHV and LCH exhibit sufficient buoyancy for lighting within deep
convection, but profiles do not favor particularly robust
thunderstorms and severe is not anticipated.
Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters are currently noted across
the FL Straits within a seasonally high PW air mass characterized by
weak buoyancy. Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable
short-wave trough over the eastern Gulf Basin. This feature should
continue to support convection across the Straits and the southern
FL Peninsula tonight.
..Darrow.. 12/14/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a
cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore.
Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this
afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the
potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.
..Moore.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/
...Southeast TX/Southwest LA...
Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level
moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley.
This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow
surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model
guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop
after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few
pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will
preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible
in the strongest cores tonight.
...FL...
A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely with these scenarios.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a
cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore.
Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this
afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the
potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.
..Moore.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/
...Southeast TX/Southwest LA...
Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level
moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley.
This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow
surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model
guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop
after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few
pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will
preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible
in the strongest cores tonight.
...FL...
A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely with these scenarios.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS
as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern
and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold
and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the
Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be
negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over
portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying
ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine
boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant
buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Tomorrow's (Sunday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please
see the previous discussion below for more information.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on
Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand
into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move
southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf.
Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming.
Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire
weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the
Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be
possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel
receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal
temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as
another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance
for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface
cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western
Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves
offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a
low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the
southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.
Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and
accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward
the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of
lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current
thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be
too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will occur over the Midwest/East
through tonight, with expanding surface high pressure across the
Plains and Midwest in the wake of a cold front progressing
south-southeastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
Coast by late tonight and early Sunday. Preceding the front, weak
warm/moist advection should allow for northeastward-expanding
thunderstorm development across southeast Texas and Louisiana today,
with potential persisting until the frontal passage tonight.
A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely with these scenarios.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/13/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak
instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5.
Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on
Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm
and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on
Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther
north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak
instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may
create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the
Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger
scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on
Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not
support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it
would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS
Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to
potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern
Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal
mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather
threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of
the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from
Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but
significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level
pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential
low-end threat difficult.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak
instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5.
Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on
Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm
and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on
Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther
north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak
instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may
create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the
Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger
scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on
Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not
support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it
would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS
Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to
potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern
Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal
mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather
threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of
the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from
Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but
significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level
pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential
low-end threat difficult.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Discussion...
Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the
Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm
activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak
instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning
activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Discussion...
Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the
Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm
activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak
instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning
activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high
pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold
front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture
will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity
may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time.
However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather
potential.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
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