Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies. Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough and cold front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies. Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough and cold front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies. Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough and cold front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday. By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal. The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake. By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday. By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal. The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake. By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday. By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal. The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake. By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday. By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal. The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake. By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night, but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected. Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the surface front. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night, but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected. Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the surface front. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night, but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected. Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the surface front. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night, but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected. Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the surface front. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday. ...Discussion... A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday. ...Discussion... A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday. ...Discussion... A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday. ...Discussion... A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast. Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains, but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions. Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast. Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains, but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions. Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast. Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains, but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions. Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will remain low. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will remain low. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more