SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the eastern CONUS and offshore the
Atlantic coast Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Mid-MO
Valley to the TN Valley. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move
southeast across GA/SC and FL. Richer boundary layer moisture will
remain confined to South FL and the Keys where showers and isolated
thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may
persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. Weak
instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Gulf Coast...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Gulf Coast...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.
...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.
..Weinman.. 12/12/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Breezy and
marginally dry conditions are beginning to develop behind a weak
cold front across portions of western TX. 15-20 mph winds coupled
with RH reductions into the 25-35% range may support a few areas of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - mainly along the
I-20 corridor. However, fuels across this region remain only
modestly dry with ERC values near the 60-65th percentiles. As such,
the overall fire weather potential remains too limited for
highlights.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Discussion...
Cold/continental trajectories especially east of the Rockies will
generally preclude thunderstorm development. Regarding a potential
exception, gradual low-level moisture return will continue to occur
over the western Gulf toward coastal Texas ahead of a low-latitude
trough over northern Mexico. Convection will probably develop and
increase late tonight over the western Gulf, but modest forcing for
ascent and marginal thermodynamic profiles aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential over inland areas of Texas.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/12/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.
...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.
Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.
...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.
Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will remain in place across most of the
U.S. today and tonight, as a trough moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into the south-central U.S., as a cold airmass moves into the
northern states. Overall, conditions will remain dry over most of
the nation today and tonight, eliminating any chance for
thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will remain in place across most of the
U.S. today and tonight, as a trough moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into the south-central U.S., as a cold airmass moves into the
northern states. Overall, conditions will remain dry over most of
the nation today and tonight, eliminating any chance for
thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will move across far northern New England this
evening, as northwest flow remains in place from the Appalachians
northwestward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold
front will move southward across the central and southern Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Over almost the entire nation, a
relatively dry airmass will be in place, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development through daybreak on Friday.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
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