Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 11 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no precipitation during the forecast period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels in these areas. As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time. However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were included. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no precipitation during the forecast period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels in these areas. As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time. However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were included. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday. A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However, forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely. The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday. A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However, forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely. The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60 mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60 mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure and offshore flow will be maintained today across much of TX and the Southeast as an upper trough/low advances east-northeastward across New England into Canada. With cool and/or stable conditions expected across a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin. Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin. Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. Read more