SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the
eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to
include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly
component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the
Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short
wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley
into western Atlantic.
Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf
Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise
in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast
to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears
that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat
northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee
Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday
night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to
gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern
U.S. Rockies.
Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more
diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a
gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the
northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.
Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas
coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur
beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,
precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears low today.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will feature a ridge across the western
CONUS with a trough across the east. A surface low will deepen below
990mb as it moves from the southern Great Lakes to the Northeast
during the period. A cold front will extend southwest from this
surface low and bring a reinforcing cold/dry airmass to much of the
central and eastern CONUS.
Significant moisture (60F dewpoints) will be relegated to far south
Florida. However, even here, northerly flow should persist within
the post frontal airmass. This should keep any thunderstorm
potential well offshore. A brief period of southerly return flow
across the western Gulf may bring some near 60F dewpoints to the
Texas coast, but this should be short-lived as a reinforcing cold
front moves offshore this evening.
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.
..Bentley/Thornton.. 12/10/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The
pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west
and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies
and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap
of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive
to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the
east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two
features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid
surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be
possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs
are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by
lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 2256 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...eastern Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 100112Z - 100415Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow to continue through the evening with occasional
1"/hr rates.
DISCUSSION...Heavy to moderate snow continues to be reported across
portions of eastern MN into central WI as of 01z. The surface low
continues to shift south and eastward, currently located over
southern MN. 750-850 mb frontogenesis is maximized across far
eastern MN into portions of central WI. 00z sounding from MPX shows
a nearly saturated dendritic growth zone. Moist profiles and
continued frontal support will continue to bring potential for heavy
bands with 1"/hr rates over the next few hours. As the surface low
continues to shift south and east, rates will decrease through the
late evening/overnight.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45168976 45809185 45779315 44449368 44309332 43519148
43189063 42818973 43488872 44668880 45168976
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
A fast moving surface low, associated with a strong mid-level jet
streak, will continue to move east-southeastward toward the western
Great Lakes this evening. Forecast soundings show some very weak
elevated instability within the warm sector, but it does not appear
instability will be deep enough for sufficient charge separation for
any thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere in the CONUS, thunderstorm
activity will be minimal without significant instability in place.
Some lightning has occurred south of the Florida Keys, in the
vicinity of the stalled surface front. However, the lightning
activity has remained well offshore and is expected to remain so.
..Bentley.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
A fast moving surface low, associated with a strong mid-level jet
streak, will continue to move east-southeastward toward the western
Great Lakes this evening. Forecast soundings show some very weak
elevated instability within the warm sector, but it does not appear
instability will be deep enough for sufficient charge separation for
any thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere in the CONUS, thunderstorm
activity will be minimal without significant instability in place.
Some lightning has occurred south of the Florida Keys, in the
vicinity of the stalled surface front. However, the lightning
activity has remained well offshore and is expected to remain so.
..Bentley.. 12/10/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 2255 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern into central Minnesota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 091756Z - 092300Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to begin over the next
few hours. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible.
DISCUSSION...A surface-850 mb low is beginning to intensify while
shifting southeastward across ND, which is resulting in increased
low-level warm-air/moisture advection within a sub-freezing
troposphere over northern to central MN. A primary band of at least
light to moderate snow is already in place along the ND/MN border,
and this band is expected to intensify with increased 850-700 mb
frontogenesis over central MN over the next several hours. Increased
saturation of the dendritic growth zone should support widespread
moderate snowfall rates, but at least a few instances of heavy snow
are possible, including snowfall rates locally exceeding 1
inch/hour.
..Squitieri.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47919705 48009693 48069675 48079663 48049635 47949602
47629508 47199421 46929378 46239305 45759294 45389305
45229348 45199421 45259516 45429561 45799613 47029686
47419699 47719709 47919705
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions are possible in the Big Bend region of
Texas during the afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track, and please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions are possible in the Big Bend region of
Texas during the afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track, and please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through
Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
In the wake of multiple cold frontal intrusions across the central
and eastern CONUS, generally dry and stable conditions are expected
on Thursday, with negligible thunderstorm potential. Early-stage
moisture return may commence across parts of Deep South TX and the
adjacent coastal plain, but in the absence of any appreciable
ascent, deep convection is not expected through the end of the
period.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through
Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
In the wake of multiple cold frontal intrusions across the central
and eastern CONUS, generally dry and stable conditions are expected
on Thursday, with negligible thunderstorm potential. Early-stage
moisture return may commence across parts of Deep South TX and the
adjacent coastal plain, but in the absence of any appreciable
ascent, deep convection is not expected through the end of the
period.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated winds/RH are already developing in portions of
southeast New Mexico, and elevated to perhaps locally critical
winds/RH are likely during the afternoon in portions of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas. However, given the marginal fuels
conditions, no areas are necessary, and the forecast remains on
track.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast
on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be
suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in
negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy
may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with
generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep
convection is expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
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