Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level ridging will continue and potentially amplify over the West through early next week, but weak upper lows/troughs are likely to traverse through the ridging over the southern half of the West this weekend into early next week. Upper-level troughing is likely to continue over the Great Lakes and Northeast into mid-next week, but a stronger upper low is forecast to move into these areas early to mid-next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and much of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall through early next week. Dry/breezy conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central High Plains, most likely from southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas Day 4/Saturday ahead/along an approaching cold front. Another round of dry/breezy conditions are likely early to mid-next week, but the timing/magnitude of potential elevated/critical winds/RH remains uncertain. Fuels continue to cure due to recent dry weather, with increasing fire activity noted during dry/breezy periods in portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Rain chances increase along the Rio Grande and into central/east/north Texas this weekend and early to mid-next week, but how much rain and how far north/west it extends remains uncertain. However, heavy rain is unlikely in west/central/north Texas. Dry cold frontal passages late this week and early next week will continue to dry fuels across the Southeast. However, recent rainfall and the lack of overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH preclude introducing probabilities. ..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely across portions of southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado where west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 15-30% are forecast. Elevated winds/RH are also likely from northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma tomorrow amid dry return flow, with southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 18-30%. However, given the marginal fuel conditions and perhaps more local coverage of elevated winds/RH, Elevated areas were not added. ..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely across portions of southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado where west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 15-30% are forecast. Elevated winds/RH are also likely from northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma tomorrow amid dry return flow, with southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 18-30%. However, given the marginal fuel conditions and perhaps more local coverage of elevated winds/RH, Elevated areas were not added. ..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. No changes. ..Hart.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front extending southeastward from this low will push quickly eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast. Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. No changes. ..Hart.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front extending southeastward from this low will push quickly eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast. Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf. A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately inland should remain limited. ..Leitman.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf. A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately inland should remain limited. ..Leitman.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/10/2025 Read more

MD 2257 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 101407Z - 101800Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur. DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible. ..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354 43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613 42767646 42817652 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front extending southeastward from this low will push quickly eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast. Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front extending southeastward from this low will push quickly eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast. Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL, the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL, the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL, the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week. Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week. Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/10/2025 Read more