SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/09/2025
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MD 2254 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota
and far western Minnesota
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 091502Z - 091800Z
SUMMARY...Light freezing rain accumulations appear likely over the
next few hours across southeast North Dakota into adjacent portions
of South Dakota and far western Minnesota.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and 12 UTC upper air
soundings/analyses depict a zone from central ND into northeast SD
with low-level thermodynamic profiles favorable for freezing rain.
These analyses are supported by recent dual-pol imagery from KABR
which depicts a melting layer between roughly 0.5 to 1.5 km AGL. The
depth of this warm layer appears to be slightly deeper/stronger than
anticipated by morning guidance, suggesting that freezing rain may
be the preferred precipitation type over a more generic wintry mix.
Recent ASOS and mPING reports from the Jamestown, ND indicate
freezing rain is ongoing, which may become more widespread over the
next 2-3 hours as a region of stratiform precipitation spreads
east/southeast into northeast SD.
Despite a potential mid-level cool bias in recent guidance, the
general consensus is that the favorable zone for freezing rain
should constrict across western MN by late morning as low-level
warming promotes a transition to primarily rain across SD. Before
this occurs, light freezing rain accumulations appear probable.
..Moore.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45839548 45599528 45319527 45039545 44869585 44869643
44959717 45129779 45319834 45609872 45959899 46299923
46859951 47169964 47499975 47869969 48039938 48049881
47789826 47169737 46539660 46079588 45839548
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front has settled southward while decelerating over the FL
Straits this morning. Appreciable low-level moisture to support
thunderstorms is expected to remain along/south of this boundary,
with little potential for convection over land through tonight.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/09/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front has settled southward while decelerating over the FL
Straits this morning. Appreciable low-level moisture to support
thunderstorms is expected to remain along/south of this boundary,
with little potential for convection over land through tonight.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/09/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave
troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime
across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will
contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther
downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs,
cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of
the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern
Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial
southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf
coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the
northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive
surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend.
Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the
weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer
based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to
support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from
southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.
However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to
remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it
appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern
mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another
developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing
digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute
to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still
seems limited at this time.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave
troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime
across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will
contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther
downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs,
cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of
the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern
Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial
southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf
coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the
northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive
surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend.
Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the
weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer
based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to
support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from
southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.
However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to
remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it
appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern
mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another
developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing
digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute
to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still
seems limited at this time.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave
troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime
across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will
contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther
downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs,
cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of
the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern
Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial
southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf
coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the
northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive
surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend.
Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the
weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer
based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to
support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from
southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.
However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to
remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it
appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern
mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another
developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing
digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute
to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still
seems limited at this time.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western Atlantic.
While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the
Canadian Maritimes.
The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast
through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western Atlantic.
While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the
Canadian Maritimes.
The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast
through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western Atlantic.
While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the
Canadian Maritimes.
The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast
through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin
to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is
forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific
coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains,
through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still
appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced
across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging
short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning
the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but
vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after
emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of
others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through
the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related
surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return
flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the
wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable
conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible
risk for thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
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