Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 8 22:08:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 8 22:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Upper and mid-level flow pattern will be characterized by persistent troughing across the eastern U.S. with ridging over the West. An embedded mid-level short wave within the broad northwesterly flow regime along with a strong surface low moving through the Great Lakes region, will usher in a cold, continental air mass into much of the eastern U.S. behind a robust cold front Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. This should reduce the overall fire weather threat across east CONUS. The enhanced northwesterly mid-level jet over the central U.S. along with surface troughing in the High Plains will promote stronger downslope winds in the lee of the Central Rockies through Day 5/Friday. Limited RH reductions coupled with an unsupportive fuelscape will likely mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Thus, introduction of critical probabilities were not warranted. Forecast confidence remains high across the Southwest as dry conditions with above normal temperatures under an expanding ridge aloft persists across the West. However, generally weak surface pressure gradients and marginal fuels within the region will mitigate overall fire weather concerns west of the Continental Divide through early next week. The dry conditions will continue to exert influence on fuels across the Southern Plains which could contribute to increasing wildfire potential into eastern NM/West TX through this week. Some forecast uncertainty exists in strength of lee troughing and thus wind magnitude across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday and Day 6/Saturday, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Upper and mid-level flow pattern will be characterized by persistent troughing across the eastern U.S. with ridging over the West. An embedded mid-level short wave within the broad northwesterly flow regime along with a strong surface low moving through the Great Lakes region, will usher in a cold, continental air mass into much of the eastern U.S. behind a robust cold front Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. This should reduce the overall fire weather threat across east CONUS. The enhanced northwesterly mid-level jet over the central U.S. along with surface troughing in the High Plains will promote stronger downslope winds in the lee of the Central Rockies through Day 5/Friday. Limited RH reductions coupled with an unsupportive fuelscape will likely mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Thus, introduction of critical probabilities were not warranted. Forecast confidence remains high across the Southwest as dry conditions with above normal temperatures under an expanding ridge aloft persists across the West. However, generally weak surface pressure gradients and marginal fuels within the region will mitigate overall fire weather concerns west of the Continental Divide through early next week. The dry conditions will continue to exert influence on fuels across the Southern Plains which could contribute to increasing wildfire potential into eastern NM/West TX through this week. Some forecast uncertainty exists in strength of lee troughing and thus wind magnitude across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday and Day 6/Saturday, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing west to southwest winds are still expected for portions of western TX and southeastern NM Day 2/Tuesday in response to increasing pressure gradient from surface troughing across the Plains. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph in conjunction with downslope drying and resulting minimum relative humidity of 15-20 percent, should promote elevated fire weather conditions for the TX Permian Basin and leeward slopes of the Trans-Pecos region by Tuesday afternoon. However, fuel indices remain relatively benign despite several days of drying. The limited fuel support should mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily. Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing west to southwest winds are still expected for portions of western TX and southeastern NM Day 2/Tuesday in response to increasing pressure gradient from surface troughing across the Plains. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph in conjunction with downslope drying and resulting minimum relative humidity of 15-20 percent, should promote elevated fire weather conditions for the TX Permian Basin and leeward slopes of the Trans-Pecos region by Tuesday afternoon. However, fuel indices remain relatively benign despite several days of drying. The limited fuel support should mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily. Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment. This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front continues to push offshore. ..Moore.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment. This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front continues to push offshore. ..Moore.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is forecast to remain negligible across these regions. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is forecast to remain negligible across these regions. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday, resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south of the FL Keys. To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb) surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust potential currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday, resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south of the FL Keys. To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb) surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust potential currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more